EP elections 2014

[Middle-aged Europe]

The leader of the satirical party "THE PARTY" has announced that if they win a seat in the European Parliament their deputies are gonna resign on a monthly basis. They have nominated a list with 60 candidates and if they all resign after a month everybody gets his or her turn. Also, they want to campaign on the promise of buildung a wall around Switzerland.

So far, THE PARTY has never managed to cross 0.5% in a national elections, although they did in the last state elections in Berlin, Hamburg, Hesse, and Saarland.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BREAKING: German Constitutional Court rules against 3% threshold.

Which means there will be no threshold at all for winning seats in Germany in this election. Good news for FDP, Pirates, NPD, Free Voters, and possibly the Animal Protection Party.

Why the hell is the German CC so prone to judicial activism? From what I know, it's clearly stepping beyond its domain of competence (see also the Euro-related rulings).

I fail to see how someone could be out of competence of the highest court.
Sure, you're used to powerless French courts, but that's precisely what courts shouldn't do (be infeoded to government).

And you are used to the overly politicized and activist North American courts.

Does the German constitution say electoral thresholds are unconstitutional? Obviously not, since that would mean every single post-WW2 election was unconstitutional. The court's job is to enforce the constitution as it is written. Doing anything else means overstepping their boundaries.

[Franzl]

Not that I'm an expert in constitutional law, but the ruling seems like it was a reasonable ruling to make. The important difference between national and Euro elections is that no government depends on a majority in Strasbourg, so there's no practical reason why having 15 parties with representation should be a problem.
I don't think this is outside the court's competence.

[Beezer]

Does the German constitution say electoral thresholds are unconstitutional? Obviously not, since that would mean every single post-WW2 election was unconstitutional. The court's job is to enforce the constitution as it is written. Doing anything else means overstepping their boundaries.

And that's exactly what it is doing. The court says that curbing the democratic rights of German voters (one man, one vote) requires a pretty good reason. For German and state elections those reasons are apparently in place because governments elected by parliament require stable majorities whose establishment is aided by keeping the number of parties in parliament low. Seeing as the EP does not have that traditional government v opposition divide (meaning that it is not propping up an elected government) the German CC has arrived at the conclusion that curtailing the principle of one man, one vote in European elections is unconstitutional.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I still think this goes a bit too far. Unless the constitution expressly states that electoral thresholds violate democratic principles and can be accepted only in specific cases, the Court is stretching things a bit, by inventing not only an unwritten rule but also a tailored exception to that rule that conveniently avoids it most problematic consequences. That doesn't strike me as very solid legally, nor can it be said to be a democratic imperative considering a 3% threshold is as benign as you can get.

[Beezer]

A constitution is always supposed to only set the basic guidelines and not micromanage everything. It says nothing about how elections are held, the length of parliamentary terms and so forth. What you're calling for is a document that is god knows how many pages long because everything not included in it would be legal. I can't really see that working. The CC has simply made the case that seeing as the EP is already full of dozens of parties there is no need for a threshold whatsoever at the German level and that appears to be the logical conclusion...after all why is 3% better than 5% if the basic composition of the EP supports a wide array of parties to begin with?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Positive side of the ruling: Average people could enter the Parliament who are not and never have been a member of the political elite. That could stir things up a bit.

Negative side of the ruling: Those people could be morons. Plus, it's all but guarenteed that the NPD is gonna send representatives to Strasbourg now. Not sure whether this is gonna lead to brawls with Polish right-wing MPs when they start to demand that Danzig is and will be a German city.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A constitution is always supposed to only set the basic guidelines and not micromanage everything. It says nothing about how elections are held, the length of parliamentary terms and so forth. What you're calling for is a document that is god knows how many pages long because everything not included in it would be legal. I can't really see that working. The CC has simply made the case that seeing as the EP is already full of dozens of parties there is no need for a threshold whatsoever at the German level and that appears to be the logical conclusion...after all why is 3% better than 5% if the basic composition of the EP supports a wide array of parties to begin with?

A constitution should obviously contain a set of broad basic principles, as do most constitutions around the world. But yes, constitutions are also complex and very technical documents that have the difficult task of precisely delimiting the powers of each body. And I'd argue that they should be as precise and detailed as possible, precisely in order to leave little to no leeway to judges for interpretation. Since the judicial power is by nature undemocratic, it should be stripped of any opportunity to make an specific decision, and instead limit itself to ensuring that the letter of the law is respected.

[Diouf]

Could they not decide to create multimember constituencies like France or the UK then to de facto re-create a threshold?

[Tender Branson]

Could they not decide to create multimember constituencies like France or the UK then to de facto re-create a threshold?

That I wondered too.

Who will be German ally of Wilders and LePen.

None.

AfD does not want to be in a group with LePen and the others and the NPD is not allowed to join because they are too radical.

[Tender Branson]

Republikaner perhaps? (they were there actually between 1989-1994).

The "Republikaner" had some shi**y election results lately, with a downward trend.

They only got 0.2% in the federal elections, which I think is way below getting 1 seat ...

[Yeahsayyeah]

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They could do that as BVG has not ruled that out (they stated, it would be constitutional in the last decision, I don't know if they mentioned it, this time, but they won't be able to implement it for 2014, because the nomination process, which is defined by law, has already begun.

The decision is coherent in the streak of emphasizing voters' equality by the BVG in the last years. It struck down thresholds in muncipal elections (it did so as the Schleswig-Holstein state constitutional court, it was by then), it put a limit on overhang seats and struck down negative weight of votes, twice. In smaller decision it also struck down the inclusion of children in the population numbers for redistricting and ruled out the so called "Berliner Zweitstimmen".
And it ruled out the five percent threshold before with arguments that let not much room for this three percent threshold. So it does not come as a surprise for me, the only question was, if they had the balls to stick by their arguments. (I think the desastrous acting of the now and then majority parties concerning the reform of the federal law since 2008 until now and the speed in which the three percent threshold was implemented without any new arguments for it did not help much).

I think, that the creed in stability coming from a five percent threshold applying to only one in not even seven seats of the European parliament is highly overstated in the politician's and media reactions we see now. Many stated today was "a bad day for the European parliament" and that the BVG's decision was "hostile to Europe".

There is a chance, we could see less protest votes in Germany, because until now because of the five percent threshold it was "not dangerous" to vote for such a party. And "prevent the Nazis from getting a seat" has been a well-known campaign strategy meant to attract young voters.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Good. Hopefully they will eventually declare it unconstitutional in federal/state elections as well.

[Diouf]

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They could do that as BVG has not ruled that out (they stated, it would be constitutional in the last decision, I don't know if they mentioned it, this time, but they won't be able to implement it for 2014, because the nomination process, which is defined by law, has already begun.

OK, I guess they will have it in line for 2019 then.

I can see that CSU proposed constituencies when the 3%-hurdle was introduced. They are open to both single-member and multimember:

"Der Parteitag fordert die CSULandesgruppe im Deutschen Bundestag auf, darauf hinzuwirken, dass für die Europawahlen Wahlkreise eingeführt werden. Denkbar sind sowohl Einpersonen als auch Mehrpersonenwahlkreise, wobei bei letzteren wegen der Eigenständigkeitder CSU als bayerische Partei darauf zu achten ist, dass Bayern entweder ein eigener Wahlkreis bleibt oder in mehrere Wahlkreise, die die Grenzen des Freistaates respektieren, eingeteilt wird."
http://www.csu.de/uploads/csucontent/121020_beschlussbuch_03.pdf

Matthias Groote, MEP from SPD, also seems to prefer constituencies now. He tweeted today: "Jetzt ist eine Reform des Europawahlgesetzes angesagt. Wahlkreise müssen kommen!"

[MaxQue]

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They could do that as BVG has not ruled that out (they stated, it would be constitutional in the last decision, I don't know if they mentioned it, this time, but they won't be able to implement it for 2014, because the nomination process, which is defined by law, has already begun.

OK, I guess they will have it in line for 2019 then.

I can see that CSU proposed constituencies when the 3%-hurdle was introduced. They are open to both single-member and multimember:

"Der Parteitag fordert die CSULandesgruppe im Deutschen Bundestag auf, darauf hinzuwirken, dass für die Europawahlen Wahlkreise eingeführt werden. Denkbar sind sowohl Einpersonen als auch Mehrpersonenwahlkreise, wobei bei letzteren wegen der Eigenständigkeitder CSU als bayerische Partei darauf zu achten ist, dass Bayern entweder ein eigener Wahlkreis bleibt oder in mehrere Wahlkreise, die die Grenzen des Freistaates respektieren, eingeteilt wird."
http://www.csu.de/uploads/csucontent/121020_beschlussbuch_03.pdf

Matthias Groote, MEP from SPD, also seems to prefer constituencies now. He tweeted today: "Jetzt ist eine Reform des Europawahlgesetzes angesagt. Wahlkreise müssen kommen!"

Single-member is forbidden by European rules.

[Yeahsayyeah]

It seems that it is not forbidden per se. The "German community in Belgium" has a single-member-constituency. So Bremen or Saarland possibly could have that, too.

[Franknburger]

The decision is coherent in the streak of emphasizing voters' equality by the BVG in the last years. It struck down thresholds in muncipal elections (it did so as the Schleswig-Holstein state constitutional court, it was by then),

It's actually interesting to see how this works out. Last year's local elections in Schleswig-Holstein (the first ones held without threshold) resulted in many counties not having clear parliamentary majorities (neither black-yellow, nor red-green). In Segeberg county, this has now lead to the unprecedented situation of Greens, Pirates, FDP and Linke (yes, you read correctly, FDP and Linke!) together nominating a candidate for the Landrat (county CEO) position, hoping that either CDU or SPD, or both, will go along. Seems like, instead of fracturing, the new situation is rather promoting cohesion and search for workable compromises.

The EP is of course different in scale and diversity, and also still rather powerless. Nevertheless, I think the verdict may boost participation, and if only to possibly keep the NPD from gaining a seat (which, btw, looking at their strength across much of Eastern Germany, they would almost be guaranteed if Germany switched to multimember constituencies).

[Middle-aged Europe]

The last time the NPD dropped below 0.5% in a national election was in the Bundestag election of 2002 though, when there was an overabundance of right-wing protest parties and the NPD probably lost votes to both the Schill Party (0.8%) and the Republicans (0.6%).

Schill doesn't exist anymore and as it was already noted in this thread, the Republicans have mostly become a non-factor in German politics. So if the NPD really drops below 0.5% nationally in this election it's perhaps thanks to the AfD. But I still doubt it.

[Tender Branson]

Her website is already up as well:

www.haider2014.at

...

I'm already interested if the next EP polls show a surge for the BZÖ with Ulrike Haider as their frontrunner.

In other news, the BZÖ has now formed an alliance with the German AfD ...

[FredLindq]

So which group will AFD and BZÖ join. EFD or ECR. It seems like Cameron will veto membership in ECR?!

[FredLindq]

Ok. Thought ÖDP would join the Green group. What about the other parties that might get seats from Germany? Wich group might they join?!

[EPG]

The European Parliament can veto and sack the Commission. It's not a parliamentary government, but it's not exactly powerless either.

[Tender Branson]

So which group will AFD and BZÖ join. EFD or ECR. It seems like Cameron will veto membership in ECR?!

I can only speak for the BZÖ, but A) first they need to get a seat (for which they need about 5.3% of the vote) and B) Ulrike Haider could then join the EFD. Why not the ECR ? Mostly because the Catholiban REKOS-list from Ewald Stadler (the MEP that was elected in 2009 for the BZÖ, but was kicked out of the party last year) is flirting with the idea of joining the ECR and has already contacts with the UK Tories.

I simply don't think that BZÖ and REKOS would be in the same group after all that happened.

[Beezer]

The European Parliament can veto and sack the Commission. It's not a parliamentary government, but it's not exactly powerless either.

Of course it isn't but then again we already have around a 100 parties sitting in it so the argument that is usually made in defense of a threshold (limits the # of parties to encourage stable majorities) does not apply here.

[Tender Branson]

The EP election alliance between Communists, Pirates and Wandel ("A different Europe") had their founding convention today and indeed elected MEP Martin Ehrenhauser as their frontrunner.

https://twitter.com/EuropaAnders/status/439792956376375296