Indiana Republican congressional primaries - May 7

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Haven't heard much talk on here about this, but the Indiana primaries are tomorrow and there are 3 Safe R open House seats in the state this year (as well as an open Senate seat but it looks like Jim Banks has that locked down). In addition, Victoria Spartz is facing primary challengers due to her repeated waffling on whether she's running or not and just general schizo behavior in Congress. And IN-01 is a potentially vulnerable seat held by Democrats, so it's worth following the R primary there as well.

Can anyone here with more knowledge of the Hoosier state speak to some of these candidates? Who is more moderate, who is more crazy, who is more likely to win?

IN-01

Frank Mrvan held on in 2022 so in theory he should be ok this year, but he may not be due to the fact that the trends for Democrats in this northwestern Indiana / Chicagoland district are worse than pretty much anywhere else in the country and this is the exact type of district to have a lot of voters who only show up for Trump.

It seems that the only serious Republican candidate racking up endorsements is Lake County councilor and GOP chair Randy Niemeyer. He seems generally sane and inoffensive compared to the kind of Republican you would expect would run in a district like this. Also running is a perennial candidate named Mark Levya who has been the GOP nominee for this district in 8 out of the last 11 elections.

IN-03

This seat is based in Fort Wayne and is currently held by Jim Banks, who is running for Senate. The rep before Banks, Marlin Stutzman, is running again and probably has a good shot due to name recognition. There are a bunch of other candidates, but the only other one with a somewhat high profile seems to be State Senator Andy Zay, who definitely seems like more of an extremist.

IN-05

I have no idea if Spartz will cruise to victory or if she will have a tough time, but her long list of challengers include State Rep. Chuck Goodrich and the seemingly more moderate Hamilton County treasurer Raju Chinthala. Goodrich is the only one who has been polling near Spartz. A lot of this district is in the more moderate, educated northern Indianapolis suburbs so a Spartz defeat would likely come from huge margins for her opponent in Hamilton County.

IN-06

This district contains small towns south and east of Indianapolis stretching to the Ohio border and the retiring incumbent is Greg Pence. There's a lot of candidates here and I can't really tell who has the upper hand. State Sen. Jeff Raatz and State Rep. Mike Speedy, both of whom are extremely anti-abortion, as well as former State Rep. John Jacob (who Wikipedia describes as an "anti-abortion activist") are all in the mix. Businessman Jefferson Shreve has raised and spent the most cash but I bet that's mostly self-funding. And then Vivek endorsed some random dude named Jamison Carrier who seems pretty crazy. Absolutely no clue what happens here, but it sounds like it's going to suck regardless of who wins.

IN-08

The old "Bloody Eighth" in southwest IN, containing places like Evansville and Terre Haute, is being vacated by normiecon Larry Bucshon and is sure to elect someone far, far worse this year. Based on funding and endorsements, it seems like it is State Sen. (and former Majority Leader) Mark Messmer's race to lose, but a former Rep. for this seat, John Hostettler, is also running as well as a few randos.

Combined with the fact that IN-02 (Rudy Yakym) and IN-09 (Erin Houchin) are currently represented by freshmen, and IN-04's Jim Baird was only elected in 2018, Indiana Republicans will really not have a whole lot of seniority this upcoming Congress. Who do we think are favored to win these primaries?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

A lot of money has been put into defeating Hostettler, who seems like he would be another Massie.

[Open Source Intelligence]

A lot of money has been put into defeating Hostettler, who seems like he would be another Massie.

He was not gung ho pro-Israel aid when he served in Congress, so AIPAC are spending heavy against him.

I live in the Indiana 3rd, I disagree with your take on Zay is an extremist. He's a pretty regular State Senator. I jokingly call him "Tenderloin Man" as he is from Dan Quayle's hometown of Huntington where a downtown restaurant says they invented the breaded tenderloin sandwich, and Zay wrote a bill a couple years ago that became law to make the Breaded Tenderloin the State Sandwich of Indiana. It made news of we're in the middle of a large property tax crisis and the General Assembly is passing laws about breaded tenderloins.

Everything I've read is the 3rd is a crapshoot between the former Congressman Stutzman, 2019 Fort Wayne Mayoral candidate complete failure Tim Smith, and Allen County Judge Wendy Smith, with Zay being an outsider that's a tier above the random "everyone else" running. So no different than 2016 when it was a broadway between Jim Banks, Kip Tom, and Liz Brown.

Zay will clean up Huntington although it's small. Largest vote center is Allen County/Fort Wayne. Smith was a pretty bad candidate for Fort Wayne Mayor in 2019 so I can't imagine Fort Wayne Republican establishment back him. Stutzman was Congressional Rep before I paid attention to local politics so not much idea of him. Davis will do strongest in Allen County (Fort Wayne), but I think being a judge from Fort Wayne hurts her everywhere else, and her and Smith will kind of cancel out Fort Wayne's influence. Since nothing major has occurred, that screams draw and I think Stutzman will get the nomination then.

As far as who all the PACs are backing: http://www.fortwaynepolitics.com/p/whos-really-behind-all-the-negative

Probably the craziest primary is the 5th. I would not be surprised if Spartz loses to Goodrich, she's annoyed enough people, but incumbency...Chinthala some parts of the district have been openly antagonistic to per reports.

The 6th Shreve has effectively used his name recognition from the 2023 Indianapolis Mayor's race and money to try to buy the nomination (the southern part of Indianapolis is in this district). Speedy is the next most solid option, but Jamison Carter was climbing in private polls per the political newscasters I frequent.

You skip the 4th but don't discount an upset of Baird by Bookwalter.

[MichaelM24]

IN-03

This seat is based in Fort Wayne and is currently held by Jim Banks, who is running for Senate. The rep before Banks, Marlin Stutzman, is running again and probably has a good shot due to name recognition. There are a bunch of other candidates, but the only other one with a somewhat high profile seems to be State Senator Andy Zay, who definitely seems like more of an extremist.

I live in the 3rd. Didn't vote in the primary - three Democrats running, and not a one of them replied to an e-mail I sent out to their campaigns, so screw them - but am very interesting in the eight-way GOP primary results.

All I can say is that I don't want Stutzman to get his seat back. My father ran against him back in 2014 in the GOP primary, so I admit it's personal; even so, I'm hoping that someone other than Stutzman - Zay or Wendy David, perhaps - pulls it out.

Personally, I'd think that Zay or Tim Smith is most likely. Smith has the most money based on what I've seen, and I've actually heard his name from apolitical people, so apparently his name's getting out there.

On the Democratic side - three-way race between Kiley Adolph, Phil Goss, and 2016 nominee (andembarrassment) Tommy Schrader - I'd suspect that Adolph wins. Goss has a lot more money, and I've seen sponsored ads from his campaign on X/Twitter, but Adolph seems to have more of the Democratic Party support, for whatever that's worth in this area.

That said, looking forward to tomorrow night.

[Open Source Intelligence]

IN-03

This seat is based in Fort Wayne and is currently held by Jim Banks, who is running for Senate. The rep before Banks, Marlin Stutzman, is running again and probably has a good shot due to name recognition. There are a bunch of other candidates, but the only other one with a somewhat high profile seems to be State Senator Andy Zay, who definitely seems like more of an extremist.

I live in the 3rd. Didn't vote in the primary - three Democrats running, and not a one of them replied to an e-mail I sent out to their campaigns, so screw them - but am very interesting in the eight-way GOP primary results.

All I can say is that I don't want Stutzman to get his seat back. My father ran against him back in 2014 in the GOP primary, so I admit it's personal; even so, I'm hoping that someone other than Stutzman - Zay or Wendy David, perhaps - pulls it out.

Personally, I'd think that Zay or Tim Smith is most likely. Smith has the most money based on what I've seen, and I've actually heard his name from apolitical people, so apparently his name's getting out there.

On the Democratic side - three-way race between Kiley Adolph, Phil Goss, and 2016 nominee (andembarrassment) Tommy Schrader - I'd suspect that Adolph wins. Goss has a lot more money, and I've seen sponsored ads from his campaign on X/Twitter, but Adolph seems to have more of the Democratic Party support, for whatever that's worth in this area.

That said, looking forward to tomorrow night.

The Dems got Schrader kicked off the ballot on a list of technicalities.

[MichaelM24]

IN-03

This seat is based in Fort Wayne and is currently held by Jim Banks, who is running for Senate. The rep before Banks, Marlin Stutzman, is running again and probably has a good shot due to name recognition. There are a bunch of other candidates, but the only other one with a somewhat high profile seems to be State Senator Andy Zay, who definitely seems like more of an extremist.

I live in the 3rd. Didn't vote in the primary - three Democrats running, and not a one of them replied to an e-mail I sent out to their campaigns, so screw them - but am very interesting in the eight-way GOP primary results.

All I can say is that I don't want Stutzman to get his seat back. My father ran against him back in 2014 in the GOP primary, so I admit it's personal; even so, I'm hoping that someone other than Stutzman - Zay or Wendy David, perhaps - pulls it out.

Personally, I'd think that Zay or Tim Smith is most likely. Smith has the most money based on what I've seen, and I've actually heard his name from apolitical people, so apparently his name's getting out there.

On the Democratic side - three-way race between Kiley Adolph, Phil Goss, and 2016 nominee (andembarrassment) Tommy Schrader - I'd suspect that Adolph wins. Goss has a lot more money, and I've seen sponsored ads from his campaign on X/Twitter, but Adolph seems to have more of the Democratic Party support, for whatever that's worth in this area.

That said, looking forward to tomorrow night.

The Dems got Schrader kicked off the ballot on a list of technicalities.

Didn't hear that, but as far as I'm concerned, good riddance.

[Open Source Intelligence]

IN-03

This seat is based in Fort Wayne and is currently held by Jim Banks, who is running for Senate. The rep before Banks, Marlin Stutzman, is running again and probably has a good shot due to name recognition. There are a bunch of other candidates, but the only other one with a somewhat high profile seems to be State Senator Andy Zay, who definitely seems like more of an extremist.

I live in the 3rd. Didn't vote in the primary - three Democrats running, and not a one of them replied to an e-mail I sent out to their campaigns, so screw them - but am very interesting in the eight-way GOP primary results.

All I can say is that I don't want Stutzman to get his seat back. My father ran against him back in 2014 in the GOP primary, so I admit it's personal; even so, I'm hoping that someone other than Stutzman - Zay or Wendy David, perhaps - pulls it out.

Personally, I'd think that Zay or Tim Smith is most likely. Smith has the most money based on what I've seen, and I've actually heard his name from apolitical people, so apparently his name's getting out there.

On the Democratic side - three-way race between Kiley Adolph, Phil Goss, and 2016 nominee (andembarrassment) Tommy Schrader - I'd suspect that Adolph wins. Goss has a lot more money, and I've seen sponsored ads from his campaign on X/Twitter, but Adolph seems to have more of the Democratic Party support, for whatever that's worth in this area.

That said, looking forward to tomorrow night.

The Dems got Schrader kicked off the ballot on a list of technicalities.

Didn't hear that, but as far as I'm concerned, good riddance.

C'mon, I love Tommy. Borderline homeless guy that wins a primary to Congress and opens the door to a TV news reporter at his motel room in his underwear and a Packers hat gives politics all the respect it deserves.

[Bismarck]

A lot of money has been put into defeating Hostettler, who seems like he would be another Massie.

He was not gung ho pro-Israel aid when he served in Congress, so AIPAC are spending heavy against him.

I live in the Indiana 3rd, I disagree with your take on Zay is an extremist. He's a pretty regular State Senator. I jokingly call him "Tenderloin Man" as he is from Dan Quayle's hometown of Huntington where a downtown restaurant says they invented the breaded tenderloin sandwich, and Zay wrote a bill a couple years ago that became law to make the Breaded Tenderloin the State Sandwich of Indiana. It made news of we're in the middle of a large property tax crisis and the General Assembly is passing laws about breaded tenderloins.

Everything I've read is the 3rd is a crapshoot between the former Congressman Stutzman, 2019 Fort Wayne Mayoral candidate complete failure Tim Smith, and Allen County Judge Wendy Smith, with Zay being an outsider that's a tier above the random "everyone else" running. So no different than 2016 when it was a broadway between Jim Banks, Kip Tom, and Liz Brown.

Zay will clean up Huntington although it's small. Largest vote center is Allen County/Fort Wayne. Smith was a pretty bad candidate for Fort Wayne Mayor in 2019 so I can't imagine Fort Wayne Republican establishment back him. Stutzman was Congressional Rep before I paid attention to local politics so not much idea of him. Davis will do strongest in Allen County (Fort Wayne), but I think being a judge from Fort Wayne hurts her everywhere else, and her and Smith will kind of cancel out Fort Wayne's influence. Since nothing major has occurred, that screams draw and I think Stutzman will get the nomination then.

As far as who all the PACs are backing: http://www.fortwaynepolitics.com/p/whos-really-behind-all-the-negative

Probably the craziest primary is the 5th. I would not be surprised if Spartz loses to Goodrich, she's annoyed enough people, but incumbency...Chinthala some parts of the district have been openly antagonistic to per reports.

The 6th Shreve has effectively used his name recognition from the 2023 Indianapolis Mayor's race and money to try to buy the nomination (the southern part of Indianapolis is in this district). Speedy is the next most solid option, but Jamison Carter was climbing in private polls per the political newscasters I frequent.

You skip the 4th but don't discount an upset of Baird by Bookwalter.

Glad you posted this to save me some typing. Pretty spot on analysis. Stutzman I think is favored because of his name recognition being the most widespread in the district. He was a tea party type back in the day and got crushed by the Todd Young machine (including myself) in the 2016 senate primary. He did carry his district strongly though. He’s not the worst.

My guess is Hostettler can’t overcome the Israel lobby. I think Sparz narrowly edges Goodrich but either way wouldn’t suprise me.

Bookwalter has run an extremely aggressive campaign but I still think he loses 60-40 to Baird. I voted for Baird. Bookwalter is a nut.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Hoping for a Hostettler win

[Bismarck]

Turnout has been pretty low so far

[Malarkey Decider]

Spartz only has a 6% advantage over Chuck Goodrich currently.

[Tekken_Guy]

Spartz only has a 6% advantage over Chuck Goodrich currently.

That’s with Hamilton EV. I think it’ll get better for her from here on.

[Malarkey Decider]

Spartz only has a 6% advantage over Chuck Goodrich currently.

That’s with Hamilton EV. I think it’ll get better for her from here on.

I believe so as well.

[MichaelM24]

Marlin Stutzman just took the lead over Andy Zay (who is now in fourth place) in IN-03's GOP.

Only 21.8% reporting, but it's the first time he's lead tonight from what I've seen.

[Minnesota Mike]

IN-03 has 4 candidates within 4 points of the lead. Exiting

[Oryxslayer]

Spartz only has a 6% advantage over Chuck Goodrich currently.

That’s with Hamilton EV. I think it’ll get better for her from here on.

I believe so as well.

And yet her share of the vote is going down with Eday.

[Tekken_Guy]

Spartz only has a 6% advantage over Chuck Goodrich currently.

That’s with Hamilton EV. I think it’ll get better for her from here on.

I believe so as well.

And yet her share of the vote is going down with Eday.

And now she’s back at 40%+.

[MichaelM24]

I think my worst prediction tonight was that Mike Speedy would win IN-06's GOP primary. He's consistently been in third, and with 50.5% reporting, Jefferson Shreve has 28.5%, and he's been leading all night.

[Minnesota Mike]

Spartz looks like she has it, small leads everywhere, but 39% for an incumbent is underwhelming. My guess is she retires for real in 26.

[MichaelM24]

It's a shame, too, because I predicted a Goodrich victory. Still not a good showing whatsover for an incumbent if she does win this.

[Minnesota Mike]

Shreve looks like he has it IN-06. He will be a reliable Republican vote but not as crazy as the alternatives.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Not that it matters, but in the Democratic Party of Indiana's first contested statewide race in 16 years, expected candidate Marc Carmichael is getting trounced by Valerie McCray. McCray is a black woman from Indianapolis that originally was running for President in 2020 as an independent.

Also in doesn't matter category, Jennifer Pace wins the 4-way Republican primary for the Indianapolis-based 7th. What is weird is Pace has been dead since March.

Low turnout low interest election. I see very splintered results which tells me you have parties whose electorates don't know what they want to be. 5 candidates in the GOP 3rd above 10% and the winner might not clear 25?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Indiana had always been a RINO state that elects horrible politicians. I'm not surprised.

[MichaelM24]

Looks like Stutzman has been projected as the winner. Damn shame, in my view. Still, an exciting race - surprised that Zay didn't hold on a bit better. Expected him to at least get second place, but he's down at fourth.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Looks like Stutzman has been projected as the winner. Damn shame, in my view. Still, an exciting race - surprised that Zay didn't hold on a bit better. Expected him to at least get second place, but he's down at fourth.

5 candidates got more than 10% and Stutzman right now is winning at 24.0%. That's the mark of an electorate that doesn't know what they want and did not make a decision. Adolph won the Democratic nod over Goss, I think that's an upset as well as it seems the local Dem establishment what it was supported Goss.