NJ 2009

[DownWithTheLeft]

Sure it may be kind of early but I think this race could get more interesting than the senate one this year.  Incumbent, and not too popular, mega millionaire governor Jon Corzine will most likely seek a second term.  It seems all but certain that US Atty Chris Christie, who terms expires at the end of this year, will seek the GOP nomination.  Others that may declare for the GOP include Morris County Freeholder John Murphy and St. Sen. Tom Kean Jr.

This could turn into a very close battle, Christie might be the one who finally can win it for NJ Republican.  However, he has turned down a few oppurtunities in the past.  This will also be the first election in NJ history in which the state elects a Lt. Gov.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Remind me again why it's "all but certain" that Christie will run. I seem to remember you saying the same of 2006 and 2008.

Alright, this time I heard it straight from his mouth at a breakfast I attended.  The other times I heard it from other people who were simply county committee members who had heard him speak.  I did not think he would run in 2006, I heard of talk of it from a few sources in 2008, but it was just pretty optimistic.

This time having actually heard it from him makes me feel much more confident.  I'd put chances of him running at 90%.  What do you think his chances are as a candidate being uncertain of him running aside?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Yet, I think you will agree with me that Christie is definetly the GOP's best shot.  He at least has something to run on and presents a viable alternative to the Democrats, something the GOP has not done in a long while.  Kean and both Forrester debacles were pretty bad candidates, Kean for being a gaffe machine and a terrible speaker, and Forrester for being arrogant and liberal.  Franks is the best candidate of the decade, and he came within 3 points in a year Gore carried the state by 16.  To think Christie couldn't pull the race to within at least 2 points if not win is certainly not imaginable.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I agree that approval ratings are ridiculous, as you know, everyone in NJ hates every politician.  Any having a favorable rating means people don't know who they are .  I'm thinking there might be some real gold on attacking Corzine (toll hikes, his girlfriend thing, Zelema Farber (or however you spell it))

Verily, do you know if the Lt. Gov. is elected seperatley or if they are having ticket?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'm going to have to disagree on Christie.  I think once Murphy gets his name out and really campaigns (if he runs), he'll be in a better position.  He is already popular with the big guys, has a "nice" resume, and comes across very genuine.  And we all know how rare that is in New Jersey.  I think people will jump on the bandwagon of the first likable candidate in years.  Not to mention he'd be a great Governor.

I must admit, Murphy outperformed what I thought he would do in the primary in 2005.  I think that if the race is Murphy, Christie, and Kean Jr., Kean Jr. will win in a walk in the primary.  That's really why I root against Murphy running.  Not only do they both appeal to the conservative base, they are both Morris county guys.  I think a result like this would occur:

Kean Jr. 35%
Christie 32%
Murphy 25%
Lonegan/Schroeder/assorted other jokes 8%

[DownWithTheLeft]

I also have a bit of a long shot dream of Cresitello being able to bump Corzine for the Democratic nomination, but I'm not going to get my hopes up.

Wouldn't that be great?  If he were the nominee the Republicans would be left with no choice but to nominate Lonegan

I also predict that the field be smaller than the last time.  However, when I talked to Bob Schroeder a few weeks ago, he said he was "strongly considering" another bid.  God it was embarassing in the last election, he's a family friend and I was forced to put signs out for him.

I think that while others may enter, Murphy, Kean Jr., and Christie are the only ones that could win.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I think that while others may enter, Murphy, Kean Jr., and Christie are the only ones that could win.

Definitely.  Though with all three it will still be a fight to upset the machine of all machines.

That is true, although I was more stating I thought they were the only 3 that could win the primary.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Oh, that makes a little more sense, haha.  I was a little confused by the "Kean Jr. being able to win" concept.

Hopefully 2006 put that notion to rest , I personally think the joke candidates are the best though.  Schroeder, is a state senator now I believe or is at least working to it, as I said he'll run.  Lonegan might have some fun again, and I wish Caliguire gets embarassed with a 7/7 showing

[DownWithTheLeft]

I look forward to Jon Corzine being re-elected.

Yes!!  Four more years of tax hikes and no progress!!  Awesome, let's all vote for the (D) beside the candidates' names instead of for the candidates.  Oh wait, welcome to New Jersey, home of the nameless winning (D)!

Fezzy, there is one thing wrong with your statement, you must also remember that in a primary machine-backed highly-funded Dems beat Dems looking for change

[DownWithTheLeft]

BUMP

and link to discussion for 2007 about the race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=61018.0

I see no way at this point Christie does not run.  Anyone know which way Murphy and Kean are leaning?

BTW, lol, Lonegan is in!!!

[DownWithTheLeft]

BTW, lol, Lonegan is in!!!

My philosophy with NJ - Keep it as interesting as possible since we know the result already.

My parents will do their part once again!

[DownWithTheLeft]

It just dawned on me that this will be the first election I can vote