March 13 Results

[Alcon]

Early vote-to-Election Day change has been especially nasty for Romney in the counties around Huntsville.

There are definitely key areas out that could be Romneyslides that it's unreasonable to discount any of the three candidates in either state at this point.

Biloxi-Gulfport flips based on one or two good-Romney precincts.  Not a meaningful dump there

[Alcon]

Romney has been holding up well in subsequent Montgomery dumps.

[Alcon]

Huntsville starting to come in.  Virtual Romney-Santorum tie so far.  Disappointing result, I think.

[Alcon]

Santorum solidly leads DeSoto County, MS.  Ouch for Romney.

It looks like the income effect may be muted in the South some.  Maybe it's because the rich folk in the Deep South are more religious than the poor folk?

[Alcon]

Big vote dump in from Rankin county narrows Santorum's lead in MS.. gonna be close

Rankin is not that strong for Romney, though, and it was a full 58% of the county.

It's hard to tell how the numbers are adding up on the large scale (it's obviously close) but Romney seems to be registering more disappointments than successes (pretty much most places vs. Montgomery.)

[Alcon]

Romney just had a comparatively bad dump in Hinds County, MS (Jackson) to both Santorum and Gingrich's approximately equal benefit.  Still won handily, but not as handily as before, and it was a big dump.

[Alcon]

By contrast, Romney just had one of his few good second batches of the night, in Birmingham

[Alcon]

I'm pretty confident in saying that Romney areas are overrepresented in both states right now, although Alabama is a little unclearer (Huntsville and Mobile)

[Alcon]

One caveat: If anyone's areas seem under-reported in Mississippi, it might be Gingrich's.

Also, at this point, if Mobile is solid Romney, I think it would be a demographic and geographical aberration.

j.j. seriously find something more useful to look at pls

[Alcon]

Montgomery just had a big dump (up to 71% reporting), and it was about the same as previous results (moderate Romney lead), but even with it, Santorum is still +5%

[Alcon]

Much more Huntsville in, up to 27% reporting.  If there are magical Romney wards outstanding, they weren't in this dump.  Romney remains up only 33%-30%.

[Alcon]

I'm not sure if Gingrich areas are underreported enough in MS for him to be favored to pull this off with 72% reporting, but at this point, I think a Gingrich win in MS is Santorum's biggest threat for a good night.

[Alcon]

Gingrichland doesn't look underreported in MS anymore.

I'm hearing NBC called Alabama for Santorum.  I wouldn't, but probably a safe enough call if it's true.

[Alcon]

Fairly big Birmingham dump was nice for Santorum, bad for Gingrich, worse for Romney.

Romney needs to find strongholds and get lucky with subsequent dumps to avoid a 3rd place in both.

Drudge looking like an asshat

[Alcon]

Gingrichland doesn't look underreported in MS anymore.

I'm hearing NBC called Alabama for Santorum.  I wouldn't, but probably a safe enough call if it's true.

I'd be more likely to call MS for Santorum at this point.

I wouldn't.  Gingrich just cut the gap by 25% in the past few minutes.

The only call I'd make in Alabama at this point is "Romney loses."

[Alcon]

Mobile early votes are in, Romney 39, Santorum 32, Gingrich 22.  Romney has pretty much ran out of potential strongholds unless poll voters there are fantastic for him.

[Alcon]

Mobile early votes are in, Romney 39, Santorum 32, Gingrich 22.  Romney has pretty much ran out of potential strongholds unless poll voters there are fantastic for him.

1% of precincts in an urban county could mean anything or nothing.

If it has a lot of early votes in there (and 1% in would suggest it does), that's really not especially good news for Romney -- although, you're right, we shouldn't be too literal about the Mobile results yet.

[Alcon]

pingrich is very close to santorum in MS. Could he win at the end?

It's a distinct possibility; I'd give it like 35-40% odds at this point.

[Alcon]

A lot of what's left in Mississippi is the Black Belt (hat tip to Bacon King), and it probably makes Gingrich look more underreported than he is.  But with such a tight margin (we've been trading between +2,000 and +1,500 Santorum several times without ticking up 1%) this is purely reading tea leaves.

[Alcon]

pingrich is very close to santorum in MS. Could he win at the end?

Yes, so could Mittens at this point, barely.

It would be helpful to Romney if he had a meaningful lead in any place that wasn't overreported.

[Alcon]

uh J.J., what urban areas in Mississippi are "still out"?  A few are underreported (the Jackson metro has gone from overreported to about parity) but I can't imagine that's enough for Romney to be anything but screwed.

[Alcon]

God, Mississippi is obviously holding a "how long can we stay at 79% reporting?" contest

[Alcon]

Santorum is even leading in Huntsville now.

[Alcon]

uh J.J., what urban areas in Mississippi are "still out"?  A few are underreported (the Jackson metro has gone from overreported to about parity) but I can't imagine that's enough for Romney to be anything but screwed.

Lauterdale, Lowndes, Washington.   Yazoo (not urban), where Santorum is running third, is about 30% in.  Jackson is 90% in.  It is an outside chance, but it is a tight race.

Yazoo is tiny and mostly black

Washington is 100% reported

I guess Lowndes and Lauderdale are arguable bright spots for Romney, but no freaking way they're enough.  I guess Romney could get insanely lucky, but I really doubt it.

I would not call any of those counties "urban" but whatevs

[Alcon]

Santorum up 3,000 in MS with 88% in.  There's a few good places like Rankin for Gingrich outstanding, but it's getting tougher and tougher for Newt.