Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

The GAD3 poll looks plausible, but I am afraid the result will be tighter in the pro-independence bloc (ERC down a bit and Junts up). The PSC might well get 20% or 21% of the vote, which is a decent result compared to all the precedent elections since 2010. With ERC, Junts and the PSC in the low 20s it'd be a three-cornered contest for the first place. Cs is heading to a single digit performance and the result may be even worse. Modest gains for the PP, which main concern is coming ahead of the Vox's wildcard (both PP and Vox have a low ceiling in Catalonia, but Vox coming ahead of the PP would jeopardize the Pablo Casado's strategy towards the far-right). ECP is set to lose ground, mainly to the PSC (and to a minor extent to ERC or CUP). The PDeCAT would need the explicit support from Artur Mas in the struggle to survive. In case turnout is in the low 60s, we can take for granted the pro-independence parties will get more than 50% of the vote...

However, Catalonia differs from Galicia and the Basque Country in that C’s has a very strong presence, meaning that the PSC has a large batch of centrist unionist voters to make inroads into. ECP doesn’t have any obvious place to gain new voters, so my guess is that they’ll do even worse than polls are currently predicting, bleeding voters in three directions: towards ERC and, to a lesser extent, CUP (voters in favor of independence who voted ECP because they thought they could be a force in favor of holding a referendum agreed with Madrid, now disenchanted due to the lack of progress in that area even with UP in government), PSC (left-wing voters who like the current national government and gravitate towards the senior partner) and towards abstention (disillusioned voters in general).

Some pro-independence voters gave a tactical vote for ECP in past general elections, but in the last Catalan elections the 'comuns' were pretty much reduced to the bone due to polarization. ECP won the 2015 and 2016 general elections in Catalonia and still got a decent result in 2019, but regional elections are a different issue and nationalists are always going to get better results. I don't think that ECP is going to lose support because voters are disappointed on the referendum (realistically they know Podemos alone can't do anything in that regard), but being in no man's land and lacking a clear discourse obviously hurt. Personally I have met a few individuals from Barcelona and surroundings whom switch between ECP and ERC, without being necessarily hardcore separatists (there is a grey area between 'unionists' and 'separatists', people who is sovereigntist and support a referendum). Another problem is that voters in Catalonia have a lot of leftwing parties to choose, from the far-left separatist CUP to the centre-left constitutionalist/federalist PSC. ECP might well get 5% or 6% of the vote, which is a pretty dismal result. Performing below 5% would be simply catastrophic.

About Illa, I’m not convinced by him. Looking at the circumstances, it’s clear why he was chosen, plus the initial reaction to his candidacy has been quite positive. What concerns me is his lack of charisma and lack of experience heading an electoral list, he could flounder in the campaign. That would add to the PSC’s tendency of doing worse than expected on election day (they only bucked the trend in 2015, probably due to the fact that they hit rock bottom that time and couldn’t get any lower).
 

Socialists needed to shake things a bit and Salvador Illa is the best card they have. I'm not initially in favour that Mr Illa continues as Health minister, but I understand why he won't resign until the end of January. Among other things, elections could be delayed and there's a vaccination campaign going on. The main asset of Salvador Illa is his politeness and good disposition. Luckily for him, the other candidates (Pere Aragonès, Laura Borràs, Carlos Carrizosa) are not particularly charismatic. He is obviously less galvanizing than Inés Arrimadas, but he has the advantage of being much less confrontational and divisive. The problem is that many voters don't perceive there's a threat like in 2017, so they are not going to show up. Otherwise the GESOP poll would be more realistic

[Velasco]

Support for the Catalan independence decreases slowly, according to the GAD3 poll for La Vanguardia

-What would you vote in a referendum on independence (previous poll percentage in brackets)?

Yes 42.6 (45.2)
No 48.9 (46.7)
Don't know/ don't answer 8.5 (8.1)

Gender gap in the support for independence: men +4, women -16
Support for independence is stronger among the youngsters and decreases with age. Unemployed and people with lower income are more contrary to independence. Unilateral seccession is overwhelmingly rejected rejected, including nationalist voters

- Should pardon be granted for the jailed politicians?

Yes 60.6
No 32.6

A majority of the PSC and ECP voters support pardon, while a majority of Cs, PP and Vox voters rejects it. Pardon is one of the preferred ways to deescalate the conflict

- Do you think the round table between (Spanish and Catalan) governments will be useful to solve the conflict?

Yes 48.9
No 46.2

-- Which way would you prefer to solve the conflict in case of a bilateral negotiation?

Improvement of the financing system 27.5
Referendum on independence 26.8
Reform of the Spanish Constitution 24.0
New Catalan Statute 10.8
Don't know / don't answer 10.9

- Which is the best solution to deescalate the conflict?

Pardon to the jailed politicians  27.8
Amnesty 25.6
Do nothing: jailed politicians must serve their full sentences 21.6
Reform of the charge of sedition 15.1
Don't know / don't answer 9.9

The Spanish government is apparently favourable to grant pardon to the jailed politicians, which is rejected by the rightwing opposition parties. Catalan nationalist parties demand amnesty

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20210111/6179204/apoyo-independencia-sondeo-encuesta-gad-3.html

[Velasco]

PSC PSC secretary general Miquel Iceta said that Salvador Illa would continue as Health minister, in case elections are postponed.  Bye to the 'Illa momentum' 😪

[Velasco]

Well, here's hoping for 'Illa momentum 2.0' in May or something. But likely it won't happen.

Don't give up the hope

[Velasco]

Central and regional governments clash on the election delay. Justice minister Juan Carlos Campo said the delay is not covered in law and is "serious for democracy", stressing that Catalonia needs a government. The PSC has been trying that elections take place as planned, arguing that only a strict lockdown would justify elections are postponed (as it happened in April past year with Basque and Galician elections postponed to July) and offering logistic support from central government. However, all the parties from Cs to the CUP support the delay, so the socialists are now proposing that elections take place in March instead of late May.

The spokeswoman of the Catalan government Meritxell Budó said that they have the competences to postpone elections. Also she reminded back in September 2020 an independent commission of jurists, taking into account the precedents of Basque Country and Galicia, said the Catalan government could postpone for health emergency reasons. The precedents are clear, but there a couple of key differences: a) there is not a strict lockdown, and b) after the disqualification of Quim Torra later that year no premier has been elected to replace him and Pere Aragonès is only interim premier. In other words, the elections were called because the term to elect a new premier expired (JxCAT and ERC agreed things were in that way, instead of voting a candidate from Torra). So apparently there are elements for a legal quagmire.  In any case, the Catalan government will make a decision on Friday and remarks that decision needs to be consensual.

[Velasco]

Didn't the Basque and Galician elections get delayed by a lot anyways? I fail to see what is the big issue here, especially not juridically like the Spanish government / PSOE is claiming

Just do the same that was done in the Basque Country and Galicia.

The big issue is that elections were called automatically because, when Quim Torra was disqualified from office, the Parliament of Catalonia failed to elect a new premier within the legal timeframe. The reason is that JxCAT and ERC agreed they were not going to present a candidate and just wait until the term expired. The situation of the pandemic was not good by late 2020 and they should have known better. If you ask my opinion, I'll tell you that holding elections in February is not a good idea. But it's so obvious the ERC folks changed their minds when the last polls were not so favourable... It's undeniable the 'Illa effect' has played a major role and the presidential elections are going on under similar circumstances in Portugal,  so the socialists (not all the government, as the UP allies have bad electoral prospects) have their reasons to raise objections. The situation now is not exactly the same of Galicia and the Basque Country, as Catalonia has an interim government and there is no consensus between all the parties

[Velasco]

Elections in Catalonia will be postponed to May 30. The Catalan government will sign the decree in a meeting today at 17:00 CET.

[Velasco]

The High Court of Catalonia orders the precautionary suspension of the regional government decree postponing elections to May 30. The previous decree calling elections on February 14 remains in force until the judiciary rules

Meanwhile Pablo Iglesias raised controversy comparing the self-imposed exile of Carles Puigdemont to the Spanish republican exilees after 1939. Go and dig your own hole,  comrade Iglesias

[Velasco]

The High Court of Catalonia orders the precautionary suspension of the regional government decree postponing elections to May 30. The previous decree calling elections on February 14 remains in force until the judiciary rules

So... what happens to the Catalonian elections? February 14 is pretty close.

Nobody knows

I read the other day that Catalonia is the westernmost region of Italy. It's a metaphor, of course.

Welcome to the conundrum

[Velasco]

Our judiciary is usually very slow,  but the decision on the election date is urgent and I guess we'll have a rule pretty soon

The 2017 elections were called by the Spanish government, after the unilateral seccession attempt and the suspension of Catalan autonomy.

The date of the 2021 will be determined by the judges

Regardless of whether you support the cause or not  it's undeniable that one of the (undesired) consequences of the sovereigntist process is the weakening of Catalan institutions. Isn't it amazing?

In what concerns comrade Iglesias,  he is desperately attempting to differentiate from the PSOE. Huge blunder

[Velasco]

There is something related to the decree that I should clarify. From what I heard last night to some journalists in a radio podcast, (I havem't read the text), the decree suspends the elections scheduled on February. I mean, unlike I posted before, it does not postpone the election to May 30. That date would be merely an indication and there exists the possibility that elections could be postponed even further and take place by autumn. This is highly irregular from a legal standpoint, as the decision goes beyond the attributions of an interim government. As I said before, elections were called automatically when the legal timeframe to elect a regional president (premier) un replacement of Joaquim Torra expired. Mr Torra was disqualified from office by the judiciary and the coalition partners weren't unable to designate a new candidate due to their big differences (besides, they need the cooperation of the CUP). JxCAT and ERC agreed that deputy premier Pere Aragonés (ERC, Torra is from JxCAT) would act as interim premier with limited powers until elections were called automatically at the end of the timeframe, putting an end to the legislative term.

Despite all parties knew it was irregular, most of them agreed to postpone elections. It was fairly predictable that the High Court could suspend the new decree in case of some organization or particular was appealing. Certainly there exists a health emergency caused by the pandemic, but the decision was also motivated by electoral calculus.  ERC panicked at the 'Illa effect' and its slight decline in the polls, adding to the cause the fears and electoral interests of JxCAT, CUP, PP, Cs and ECP. This absurd situation is also due to lack of foresight. The Portuguese have found ways to go ahead with elections, but Spain is just too complicated and Catalonia is the most complex and surrealistic place of all in our blessed country

[Velasco]

Fantastic CIS poll. Maybe there is a PSC bias, but the 'Illa effect' is apparently real. At this point I think the PSC coming first is feasible, but I think the estimation for Junts (too low) and ECP (too high) is not creídible. Anyway everything is up in the air until the judges speak

PSC 23.9%  30-35 seats
ERC 20.6% 32-34
Junts 12.5% 20-27
ECP 9.7% 9-12
Cs 9.6% 13-15
Vox 6.6% 6-10
CUP 6.0% 8-11
PP 5.8% 7

The rule of the High Court is expected for tomorrow.  Election date will be either February 14 or (perhaps) May 30

[Velasco]

OMG. This is Catalan conundrum amazingly surreal

Junts and their previous incarnations recently seem to be underpolled for some reason. Maybe too many respondents in BCN-metro area.

Sure. The CIS is obviously an outlier. I think Junts will be much closer to the 20% mark and will win around 30 seats... unless the PDeCAT gets more support than expected. The PDeCAT owns the electoral rights of the previous JxCAT incarnation, including free ads in TV. Artur Mas campaigning for the CDC heirs might boost the PDeCAT a little, but he is very reluctant and unwilling to clash with Carles Puigdemont.  On a separate mote,  Pablo Iglesias is doing no favors to Ada Colau granting Puigdemont the title of "republican refugee". Junts represents the opposite things Colau stands for, despite the seemingly populist and post-ideological turn of the new Junts (I don't believe Junts actually "progressive", despite some ERC and PSC splinters have joined the Puigdemont's big tent)

[Velasco]

El Mundo Today has announced several times that North Korea hired the CIS director José Félix Tezanos to conduct government polls, but aparently the man loves our country too much for leaving

https://www.elmundotoday.com/2020/05/corea-del-norte-ficha-a-tezanos-para-sus-encuestas-gubernamentales/

[Velasco]

PSC sources say that Health minister Salvaor Illa will resign within next week, in order to contest the Catalan elections. Official campaign begins next Friday, on January 29. The definitive rule of the High Court is expected before February 8

List of parties and coalitions ikely to contest, according to the Catalan Wikipedia

Citizens (Ciutadans, Cs)
Candidate: Carlos Carrizosa
Ideology: liberalism
Position: centre-right, constitutionalist

Republican Left of Catalonia (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, ERC)
Candidate: Pere Aragonès (deputy premier, acting as interim premier)
Ideology: social democracy, democratic socialism
Position: centre-left to left-wing, pro-independence
Allied organizations: Nova and Sobiranistes (both splinters of the 'comuns')

Together for Catalonia (Junts per Catalunya, JUNTS)
Candidate: Laura Borràs
Ideology: big tent nationalism, populism
Position: centre-right to centre-left, catch-all-oarty, pro-independence
Allied organizations: Democrats of Catalonia (DC, Unió split), Left Movement (MÉS, PSC split), The Greens-Green Alternative (EV-AV), Independentistes d'Esquerres, Rally for the Independence (RI, ERC split), Catalan Solidarity for the Independence (SI), Action for the Republic (AxR)

Socialists' Party of Catalonia (Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya, PSC)
Candidate: Salvador Illa (Health minister)
Ideology: social democracy
Position: centre-left, federalist, constitutionalist
Allied organizations: United to Go Forward (Units per Avançar, the heirs of Unió), Unitat d'Aran

In Common We Can (En Comú Podem, ECP)
Candidate: Jessica Albiach
Ideology: democratic socialism, ecosocialism, direct democracy, left-wing populism
Position: left-wing, sovereigntist, confederalist
Member organizations: Catalunya en Comú (CatComú), Podem, United Left Catalonia (EUCat), Equo

Popular Unity Candidacy (Candidatura d'Unitat Popular, CUP)
Candidate: Dolors Sabater
Ideology: socialism, anti-capitalism, direct democracy
Position: far-left, pancatalanist, pro-independence
Allied organizations: Guanyem Catalunya (municipalist alliance), Capgirem, Pirates of Catalonia, Aran Amassa (Occitan nationalist)

People's Party of Catalonia (Partit Popular Catalá, PP)
Candidate: Alejandro Fernández
Ideology: conservatism, christian democracy
Position: centre-right to right-wing, constitutionalist
Allied organizations: Barcelona pel Canvi (the platform led by Manuel Valls)

Catalan European Democratic Party (Partit Demòcrata Europeu Catalá, PDeCAT)  
Candidate: Angels Chacón
Ideology: liberalism
Position: centre-right, pro-independence
Allied organizations: Convergents (CNV)

Vox (VOX)
Candidate: Ignacio Garriga
Ideology: national conservatism, right-wing populsim
Position: right-wing to far-right, centralist

Nationalist Party of Catalonia (Partit Nacionalista de Catalunya, PNC)
Candidate: Marta Pascal
Ideology: liberalism
Position: centre or centre-right, sovereigntist, pro-independence

National Front of Catalonia (Front Nacional de Catalunya, FNC)
Candidate: Albert Pont
Ideology: anti-immigration
Position: far-right, pro-indpendence

Primaries Movement for the Independence of Catalonia (Moviment Primàries per la Independència de Catalunya, MPIC)
ICandidate: Laura Ormella
Ideology: October 1 spirit
Position: pro-independence

Other lists contesting for Barcelona (source GenCat):

Communist Workers' Party of Catalonia (Partit Comunista dels Treballadors de Catalunya, PCTC)

Left in Positive (Izquierda en Positivo, IZQP)

Zero Cuts-Green Group-Municipalists ( Recortes cero - Grup Verd - Municipalistes, RECORTES CERO-GV-M)

https://exteriors.gencat.cat/ca/detalls/noticia/not_210122_candidatures

[Velasco]

Why did Junts and PDeCat split?

The short answer is that the PDeCAT refused to merge in the big tent pro-independence movement Carles Puigdemont wanted to create, while the latter rejected a formal coalition with the heirs of CDC. Rather Puigdemont asked PDeCAT membership to join the new Junts on a individual basis and, as a result of the hostile takeover, the PDeCAT ranks diminished dramatically. You can read the PDeCAT Wikipedia entry for more details, namely the chapter about the reorganization of the post-CDC space

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_European_Democratic_Party

Throughout 2019, discussions took place on the future of the post-CDC political space, leading to negotiations between the PDeCAT and Puigdemont to bring all three entities resulting from CDC's demise—PDeCAT, JxCat and CNxR—into a single unitary platform under the umbrella of Together for Catalonia, whose naming rights belonged to the PDeCAT.[42][43] Some sectors within the party had been weary of Puigdemont's growing influence and rupturist discourse taking over the traditional moderate political space of the late CDC, as well as his frequent use of independent candidates unrelated to the party's structure (...)  

[Velasco]

"Catalan election date uncertainty adds fuel to coronavirus, political crises"

https://english.elpais.com/politics/catalonia_independence/2021-01-22/catalan-election-date-uncertainty-adds-fuel-to-health-political-crises.html

Catalonia is facing a regional election on February 14 without knowing if there will actually be a vote that day. A legal challenge against the regional government’s recent decision to postpone voting until May 30 means that the final date will remain unclear for days to come. Catalan officials say the postponement is due to the coronavirus health crisis, but the central government suspects electoral calculations: surveys show the Socialist Party (PSOE) candidate rivaling with separatist nominees in voter intention.

Catalonia’s regional High Court (TSJC) this week upheld the original decree calling elections for February 14, and voiding the Catalan government’s postponement. But a final ruling could come as late as February 8 – just six days before voters are asked to go to the polls. Until the definitive decision is in, campaign preparations must resume regardless.

The regional executive, which said it had pushed back the date for public health reasons amid a third wave of the coronavirus, says that the court’s decision “forces Catalans to choose between the right to health and the right to vote.”

According to the Catalan government’s technical reports, the occupation of intensive care beds in the region is due to peak three days before the February election date, and the around 200,000 people estimated to be quarantining or self-isolating around that time would have trouble voting.

Catalonia’s acting premier, Pere Aragonès of the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), said on Wednesday that the court’s actions are affecting the election campaign. Both governing partners, ERC and Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia), view this judicial decision as the latest example of the courts “meddling in Catalonia’s political and institutional life.”

I think that I tried to explain this in a previous post. Apparently one of the main problems is that the Catalan government didn't issue a decree postponing elections to May 30 (date agreed by all parliamentary forces except the PSC). Rather, the decree suspends elections indefinitely and May 30 is merely an indicative date; elections could be further postponed, depending on the pandemic circumstances. This suspension might set a disturbing precedent, moreover a suspension decreed by an interim government. The High Court argues the last decree delaying elections is provisionally suspended because of a "very intense public interest" and in order to prevent falling into "a prolonged period of provisionality". Additionally the judges deem the current state of alarm and the measures to contain the pandemic are not preventing that elections can take place with the due guarantees, but leave the door open to postpone elections in case restrictions intensify (remember that lockdown was in force when Basque and Galician elections were postponed from April to July, 2020).

La Vanguardia reports the Catalan govrnment is resignedly accepting that elections will finally take place on February 14, given that it's unlikely the central government is going to modify the state of alarm decree and enforce a lockdown. So the coalition partners Junts and ERC are beginning to launch attacks on Salvador Illa and the PSC, with Pere Aragonès claiming there is an operation orchestrated by the State ("the PSC points and others do the work"). Vox enters in the scene stating openness to facilitate the investiture of Salvador Illa, in order to prevent the golpistas (the separatist "coup plotters") govern. Of course there's la negligible chance to see the Vox folks becoming the kingmakers of Catalan politics. Meanwhile in Madrid, the PP attacks Illa because he's "disappeared" and hasn't resigned yet

National repercussions of the Catalan elections

The Catalan election affects more than just the northeastern region. Politicians across Spain were anxiously awaiting a poll that would give way to nearly two whole election-less years in a country that, since 2015, has been through four national elections, a European vote, regional and municipal polls, and two no-confidence motions in parliament.

This long period of rest was meant to facilitate cross-party deals on long-unresolved issues such as judicial reform. It was also hoped that the reduced political tension would benefit relations within the governing coalition of PSOE and Unidas Podemos, and even temper the battle for right-wing supremacy between the PP and Vox.

One of the Spanish government’s top goals for this term, besides getting a budget passed after years of gridlock, was to deal with the Catalan independence crisis. A regular dialogue with ERC, placed on hold until after February 14, is now postponed until an unknown date. And a decision on government pardons for jailed leaders of the 2017 unilateral secession attempt might now have to be taken before the election, adding layers of political complexity to an already sensitive issue.

[Velasco]

Gonna try to summarize, because the blitzkrieg campaign is already going on

On Saturday the PSOE held a meeting of the Fedreal Committee in Barcelona with Pedro Sánchez, Salvador Illa and a few members on-site and the rest attending on-line or telematically. Obviously the meeting was designed to boost the candidacy of the incumbent Health minister. Pedro Sánchez said in his speech that Salvador Illa is "the change that cannot be prevented" and accused the pro-independence regional government of inventing pretexts for delaying the inevitable. Sánchez did not take for granted that elections will be held on February 14, but remarked that the election date is not as important as the "respect for the rules". While Sánchez used the concept pf "change"; the speech of Illa afterwards was focused in the idea of reunion or re-encounter. Illa claims to be a candidate that seeks to turn the page of a "lost decade" ruled by the sovereigntist process. He's not going to lose a single minute in blaming others, nor asking what they did in the past ten years. He promises neither revenge nor setting the scores, but focusing on the important things: "decent work, public healthcare and social advancements". The leitmotiv of the PSC campaign is that Illa is the best candidate to reunite the Catalans

On that day Nació Digital leaked some texts documenting disagreements within the CUP-Guanyem candidacy. The leading candidate Dolors Sabater, who is a former mayor of Badalona and the leader of Guanyem Catalunya ("Let's Win Catalonia"), stated in previous days that the CUP was ready to enter in a pro-independence coalition government. This created unrest among some factions within the CUP, particularly the influential Endavant ("Forward"). The texts are endorsed by the CUP leadership and opt for disengaging from governability, because it's "a dangerous and irresponsible narrative" that "fosters autonomism" and jeopardizes the rupturist character of the CUP

Vox secretary general Javier Ortega-Smith stated his party would allow the investiture of Salvador Illa, in order to prevent a pro-independence government. ERC, Junts and ECP took asked Salvador Illa to reject the Vox support. Socialists said in no way they will accept the Vox support. The ERC candidate said the Vox statements confirm the existence of a plot orchestrated by the Spanish state to oust nationalists from government.

Seemingly ERC is tempted by or within a strategy to challenge the legitimacy of elections. The candidate and interim premier Pere Aragonès says to El País: "the best way to avoid suspicions on February 14 is to postpone it"

Meanwhile the Junts head of list Carles Puigdemont called for the mobilization of the pro-independence voters, stating this election is under the shadow of the infamous article 155. Puigdemont also said that Pedro Sánchez and Mariano Rajoy are the same thing and trashed Salvador Illa ("one of the worst Health ministers within the EU"). He claims to be embarrassing and bringing the Spanish state down in the EU parliament, thanks to the votes of the Catalan people. The former Catalan premier attended telematically the inaugural campaign act of Junts, with the attendance of candidate Laura Borràs and secretary general Jordi Sánchez.

Cs leader Inés Arrimadas said today in Sabadell that the best chance for a "moderate and sensible" government in Catalonia is a coalition between her party and the PSC, asking to concentrate the constitutionalist vote in Cs



-

[Velasco]

NC Report for La Razón: there is no 'Illa effect'

ERC 33 seats (20.5%)
Junts 32 (19.2%)
PSC 25 (18.7%)
Cs 14 (11.1%)
ECP 8 (7.3%)
PP 8 (6.7%)
CUP 8 (6.1%)
VOX 7 (6.0%)

I think this poll might be biased in the opposite way of the CIS. Or maybe not. Extreme uncertainty makes the outcome unpredictable, but the fact all rival candidates are focusing attacks on Salvador Illa is telling. Regardless he succeeds or not, the move made by Pedro Sánchez and Iván Redondo placing Illa in the last minute caught Junts and ERC unaware

[Velasco]

In my humble opinion, both NC Report and Sociométrica are overestimating Cs. My impression is that Cs will perform in single digits, due to the voters that are not going to show up and heavy losses to the PSC and to the right (unlike other parts of Spain, a good chunk of the Cs support in 2015 and 2017 are centre-left voters opposed to the sovereigntist process).

Sociometrica is also understimating the support for nationalist pro-independence parties. It's highly unlikely they are going to get less than 45%, unless there is a massive 'Illa effect'. I can see a three-cornered contest between ERC, PSC and Junts around the 20% mark, with the rest of parties trailing far behind in the single digits.

[Velasco]

Salvador Illa will attend his last cabinet meeting tomorrow. Then he will resign his post, not without controversy

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2021-01-25/spains-health-minister-to-bow-out-in-midst-of-third-coronavirus-wave-to-run-in-catalan-elections.html

Spain’s central government on Monday officially confirmed that the current health minister, Salvador Illa, will leave his role this week and that tomorrow’s Cabinet meeting will be his last. Illa, who has been in charge of the Health Ministry for just over a year, will be running as the candidate for the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) in the upcoming elections in the northeastern region, which are due to be held on February 14.

The decision is a controversial one, given that he will be leaving the government in the midst of the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in Spain. Illa has, however, met his promise of remaining in the role until the start of the electoral campaign, which will officially begin on Thursday.

His successor as health minister will assume the role on Wednesday. The most likely person to replace Illa is Carolina Darias, currently the territorial policy minister. Darias has also been in the spotlight during the ongoing health crisis and for weeks has been the government representative who speaks to the press after meetings of the Inter-Territorial Council of the National Health System (CISNS), which brings together the regional health departments and the central Health Ministry to coordinate the handling of the pandemic in Spain.

Government sources have suggested that Darias, in turn, will be replaced by Miquel Iceta, who is currently the head of the PSC and will be relieved by Illa. However, there has been no official confirmation of this. The handover is likely to be announced after Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting, and the ministers will be sworn in the following day

[Velasco]

The main candidates contesting Catalan elections are concerned by the expected decrease in turnout, caused by the pandemic and a widespread sense of political weariness. The director of the GESOP polling institute Angels Pont says that "weariness" is the key word to describe the general mood, which is resulting from years of political conflict and deadlock. That weariness is aggravated by the prolonged situation of health emergency- By December 2020 GESOP estimated a turnout between 60% and &5%, down from the record 79% in the hyper-polarized 2017 elections

Turnout in Catalan elections 1980-2017. There has been a sustained increase in the past decade ruled by the sovereigntist process

Pont says the decrease in turnout will affect all parties, except those with a clear upward trend (which is the case of the PSC right now). The Sci Po professor Lluís Orriols thinks the 'IIla effect' is important right now, but the question is how long it will last because this kind of honeymoon tend to deteriorate pretty fast. The PSC is working to facilitate postal vote, especially for elderly people. Orriols says the loss of aged voters not showing up due to fear of contagion could be compensated by gains from Cs and ECP

Junts is trying to mobilize the pro-independence base conveying a message similar to that of 2017. The problem is that Puigdemont folks were advocating to postpone elections and now they need to convince the most fearful to show up. Thus they resort to indignation and grievance to motivate voters, claiming that democracy is intervened once again by the Spanish state

ERC analysts think that a turnout decrease is not going to affect them in a greater degree than rivals. On the one hand, they deem the lesser significance and dramaticism of this election will demobilize many constitutionalist voters affecting the PSC; on the other hand, the fear of contagion will demobilize aged voters affecting the PSC and Junts.

 
 

[Velasco]

Junts candidate Laura Borràs said to journalists that, in case pro-independence parties get more than 50% of the vote, they will implement the "October 1 mandate" (it refers to the irregular referendum held on October 1, 2017). Borràs said that "we exist for this (...) it's in our manifesto (...) the loyalty to October1 and the will to implement its results". Party sources say the statements of Borràs don't imply the automatic proclamation of independence. Borràs also referred to a Junts paper, which lacks mentions to independence proclamation and just states this election will open the door for "a new onslaught for the republic"

Elsa Artadi, the Junts camapign director and a detached Puigdemont loyalist, says this election is a duel between her party and the PSC. Like one of the Junts slogans says, it's a choice between Ella ("She", Laura Borràs) and "Illa" (the PSC candidate). Artadi days that Illa represents the artcle 155 (the repression of the Spanish state), the fascism and the status quo. Illa should resign and go home, according to Artadi

One of the most controversial characters in Junts is Joan Canadell. who is the chair of the Barcelona's Chamber of Commerce. Canadell is placed third in the Junts list after Puigdemont and Borràs. The man is a radical separatist loved by the Junts base. Canadell tweeted some messages sympathizing with Trump by 2016, but after the Capitol events he has denied being a Trumpist

https://www.lavanguardia.com/opinion/20210107/6173098/canadell-trump.html

Much more unpleasant and openly xenophobic is the Josep Sort, placed  the 65th in the Junts slate. Mr Sort has resigned as leader of Reagrupament (Rally for the Independence) over a series of racist and isulting tweets targetting the Barcelona mayor Ada Colau ("a Spanish whore") and promising a cleansing of Spaniards. Sort's nickname is "graccus"

https://twitter.com/jumasa85/status/1353428338111602689?s=20

I'd like to know if Pablo Iglesias has anything to say about the fascist allies of Carles Puigdemont, the "republican refugee" exiled in Waterloo

[Velasco]

I'm sorry to inform Josep Sort that Catalans are, in fact, Spaniards.

I wonder if he meant just Castilians or all non-Catalans though. I have always wondered whether different Spanish regionalist movements and non-Castilian regional identities have resentment towards each other.

To be fair, Sort represents a minority within the independence movement -or at least that's what I'd like to believe-. But this kind of racist and xenophobic speech exists and deserves to be condemned, as well as similar remarks made by Spanish nationalists. My personal opinion is that the confrontational rhetoric of some nationalist leaders favors more extreme xenophobic stances (and I'm pointing to Puigdemont here, even though I have no evidence that he is personally a racist or a xenophobe)

Catalans are Spaniards under a legal point of view, but the sense of belonging is free and I think those Catalans not identifying themselves as Spaniards deserve respect and their rights must be protected in a democratic state.

The rest of Spain is broader than Castile. I think that, out of the more extreme nationalist elements, the relationship between the different regional identities is not extremely conflictive. There have been always a certain classist attitude of some Catalans towards immigrants from other regions, as well as certain anti-Catalan attitude among certain people in the rest of Spain. The Spanish society is much more civil that the Spanish politicians, as a general rule. However, many people fear that political tension is permeating slowly into the civil society...

[Velasco]

It fell under the radar, and is a bit off-topic, but RIP UPyD (2007-2020). The party became irrelevant over the last years, but was represented in Parliament from 2008 until 2015. At the point of its dissolution, it had still 1 MEP (Maite Pagazaurtundúa - elected over the Cs list in the 2019 EU elections) and 1 local councillor (out of 67,515).

Apparently, the party was in deep debts and couldn't pay its bills, so a court disbanded it in November, and in December UPyD dropped its appeal against the ruling and officially ceased to exist.
As far as I know, UPyD's last leader Cristiano Brown ran as part of the Cs list in Madrid in the 2019 general elections and could still make it into Parliament if a Cs MP from Madrid resigns from his/her seat.

[
A final homage to this obscure, centrist and irrelevant party whose founder went from PSOE to UPyD, only to endorse PP in the last elections.

To be honest, I was unaware of the UPYD's legal demise. So yes, I admit the news fell under my radar. But in no way it's off-topic in this thread. I don't know where is Maite Pagaza now, but certainly the last news I read about Rosa Díez is that she endorsed the PP (Diez had resigned from the party she founded some time before).  Rest In Peace

I remember that I felt a bit sad when I read the news about the dissolution of ICV in 2019, due to a debt amounting to 9.2 million euros. Currently some of the ICV membership is active within Catalunya en Comú (part of En Comú Podem). Iniciativa per Catalunya began as the legal heir of the PSUC, the Catalan communist party counterpart of the Spanish PCE. The post-communists evolved to ecosocialism and ICV became a member party of the European Greens. Some former members talked about the possibility of a refoundation inder the name Esquerra Verda ("Green Left")