UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[jaichind]

Predictit seems to imply around 360-365 CON seats while betfair seem to imply around 370 CON seats.

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets has around

CON         361.5
CON         206.5
LIB            12
SNP           46
PC               3.5
Greens        1
UKIP            0.5

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets has around

CON         361.5
CON         206.5
LIB            12
SNP           46
PC               3.5
Greens        1
UKIP            0.5

I'd hate to be one of the 0.5 of a politician!  Do they chop off vertically or horizontally?

They have it in Bid/Ask format so I took the mid between Bid/Ask. 

[jaichind]

Most of the prediction and betting sites seems to be covering toward 360 seats for CON.

[jaichind]

I read on some other discussion site someone pointing out that the CON posters look Maoist

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets is now around

CON         359.5
CON         208.5
LIB            12
SNP           46
PC               3.5
Greens        1
UKIP            0.5

Moving toward LAB from CON

Predictit around 360 for CON.

[jaichind]

This long wait is a ghastly affair, go on Sunderland South bring on the results

Well, given the track record of exit polls in 2010 and 2015 I am eagerly awaiting the exit polls at 10pm.

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets is now

CON    358.5
LAB     209.5

CON down one more seat from a few hours earlier

Predictit now with CON slightly below 360

[jaichind]

Does anyone know if the will be be YouTube live stream of the results?

I personally will just watch BBC on the BBC website

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets is now

CON    360.5
LAB     207.5

CON gained back 2 seats over the last few hours

[jaichind]

Seeing leaked exits on twitter showing Con with 381.

Betfair betting does not seem to believe this leak

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets is now

CON    361.5
LAB     206.5

Gain of 1 seat for CON in the last few min

[jaichind]

Wow.  Corbyn did it ..

[jaichind]

Wow... SNP fell a lot

[jaichind]

In retrospect the CON manifesto should have just been a picture of May and nothing else.

[jaichind]

The exit poll could be off. But wow, Conservatives at around 314 would make every seat really matter.

Even if it is off it is unlikely May would survive

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets is now

CON    324
LAB     246

Whit is slightly more pro-CON than the exit poll

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets is now

CON    330
LAB     239
SNP      39.5
LIB       13.5


Exit poll seems to be believed less and less over time.

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets is now

CON    331
LAB     243
SNP      38.5
LIB       13.5

[jaichind]

Fake polls strike again!

I recall both these seats in 2015 also had LAB under-perform exit polls by a significant margin (although not as much as time as this time) and the result was LAB doing worse than exit polls but not that much.  So CON might still pull out a majority but the result is still a disaster for May.

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets is now after the two results

CON    333
LAB     243
SNP      38.5
LIB       13.5

[jaichind]

One thing is for sure.  LAB is gaining a significant part of the 2015 UKIP vote.  This totally defeats the May strategy even if the exit poll is off on the extent of LAB gains.  

[jaichind]

Ha, newly re-elected Labour MP Bridget Phillipson in Houghton and Sunderland South declines to endorse Jeremy Corbyn for Prime Minister on Sky when asked explicitly. "I support the Labour Party."

What ?  Even if the exit polls are wrong Corbyn poll off a major political coup with a result like this.

[jaichind]

Sporting Index markets moves more toward CON

CON    337
LAB     240
SNP      38
LIB       13.5

[jaichind]

Sunderland Central roughly matches Ashcroft 2016 model which has CON getting 350 seats.