NV-02 special election: 9/13

[DrScholl]

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/8/18/NV-2/49/kbV81

    Kate Marshall (D): 42
    Mark Amodei (R): 43
    Timothy Fasano (AI): 3
    Helmuth Lehmann (I): 3
    Undecided: 8
    (MoE: ±4%)

[Meeker]

If Kate Marshall says any words other than Medicare, Medicare and Medicare in the next few weeks I will personally fly to Reno and slap her silly.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL. Apparently that poll that showed Amodei with a 13 point lead presented as his opponent not Kate Marshall but Kate Jackson.

http://www.rgj.com/section/blogs01?plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&U=063a1ff4-7a74-4c66-8976-85b765479560&plckPostId=Blog:063a1ff4-7a74-4c66-8976-85b765479560Post:fe2ea831-ef27-4113-9e68-f105eb5e54e4&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest

[Tender Branson]

Muhahahahahaha, if true.

[Brittain33]

She was the genius, right?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2011/8/18/NV-2/49/kbV81

    Kate Marshall (D): 42
    Mark Amodei (R): 43
    Timothy Fasano (AI): 3
    Helmuth Lehmann (I): 3
    Undecided: 8
    (MoE: ±4%)

This is what I expected, more or less. The D triple C better start dumping cash here or I'll be very disappointed in them as an organization. This is another great opportunity to demoralize Republicans and to refill their coffers with cash.

This district is demographically shifting in a large way so I wouldn't be surprised if Marshall squeaked this one out. Amodei is also a terrible candidate as evidenced by his inane debt ads, fat nerd face and inability to be charismatic. Responding to Marshall's Medicare ads was a big mistake, seeing as he's already on the record repeatedly claiming to support Ryan's plan. All that Marshall has to do is release a response to that response and watch sweat pour down Amodei's inept face. If we can win NY-26, we can certainly win NV-2.

[NVGonzalez]

I think the PPP poll just proves this will be a turnout race. The more people vote, the more likely Marshall wins here.

[Joe Republic]

Great job, Kate:

[quote author=http://dailycaller.com/2011/08/24/marshall-campaign-mistakenly-leaves-note-in-statement-explaining-political-strategy/

]Nevadans watching the special election in the state’s 2nd Congressional District saw some of the political strategy behind Democratic candidate Kate Marshall’s campaign Wednesday, when an internal comment was mistakenly left in a statement emailed out.

[...] The statement described the recent increase in violence in Israel and expressed sympathy for the families and friends of the dead. It also called on Egypt to police its borders to prevent terrorists from entering Israel that way.

[...]

Lest the reader wonder why Marshall was issuing such a statement, the campaign unintentionally provided a helpful explanation:

“Background: Israel has been in the news lately, and will be even more in the news with [Glenn] Beck’s ‘Rally to Restore Courage’ in Jerusalem. In an R district, it will be useful to express support for Israel and demonstrate some foreign policy prowess while it is a timely topic — especially for people who are likely paying attention to Beck’s event.”

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I like the stuff in the comments section there.

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[Joe Republic]

It might be worth mentioning that Todd Russell, the district court judge who ruled against Ross Miller to ensure that this was a 1 Democrat vs. 1 Republican race, was law partners with Mark Amodei and co-owns a small mining claim with him.

Incidentally, Russell has also been assigned the case to determine Nevada's legislative district maps for the next decade.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011/aug/26/judge-deciding/

[minionofmidas]

It might be worth mentioning that Todd Russell, the district court judge who ruled against Ross Miller to ensure that this was a 1 Democrat vs. 1 Republican race, was law partners with Mark Amodei and co-owns a small mining claim with him.

And he didn't recuse himself from the case?
Only in America.

[Niemeyerite]

It might be worth mentioning that Todd Russell, the district court judge who ruled against Ross Miller to ensure that this was a 1 Democrat vs. 1 Republican race, was law partners with Mark Amodei and co-owns a small mining claim with him.

And he didn't recuse himself from the case?
Only in America.

Or Spain. Search "Francisco Camps" in google.

[krazen1211]

Amodei is dominating the early voting.

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

[Brittain33]

Amodei is dominating the early voting.

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

Early Vote a Bad Omen for Harry Reid

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43835.html

(not that I'd bet any money on a Dem winning NV-2.)

[Holmes]

Amodei is dominating the early voting.

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

Early Vote a Bad Omen for Harry Reid

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43835.html

(not that I'd bet any money on a Dem winning NV-2.)

The difference is that Amodei is dominating.

[Tender Branson]

Well, well:

In 2010, the first few days of early voting In Washoe were R+7, but Reid won by 5.

Now, the first few days of early voting are R+14.5.

Assuming the winning margin stays the same, it's Amodei by 2.5 points.

I don't really think Marshall can win this thing, she'll probably lose by 10% in the end.

[Tender Branson]

I don't really think Marshall can win this thing, she'll probably lose by 10% in the end.

Which is apparently also what the internal polls in BOTH campaigns show right now:

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http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/178695-early-voting-for-nevada-house-special-leans-republican

[BigSkyBob]

Well, well:

In 2010, the first few days of early voting In Washoe were R+7, but Reid won by 5.

Now, the first few days of early voting are R+14.5.

Assuming the winning margin stays the same,

Bad assumption. Reid was spending massive amounts on money are turning out Reid voters regardless of political party. That is, Reid identified Reid voters and worked to turn them out. The incremental Republican his organization turned out was credited to Republican turnout, but, really ought to have been credited to Reid turnout. There simply isn't the money for such a ground game in this special election.

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[Miles]

Why exactly has the DCCC been so reluctant to spend money here?

[Holmes]

Because it's a Republican district and is inconsequential in the end; Nevada will be 2 - 2 after 2012 anyway, regardless of what happens here.

[BigSkyBob]

Because it's a Republican district and is inconsequential in the end; Nevada will be 2 - 2 after 2012 anyway, regardless of what happens here.

No, what happens in Clark County will be independent of whom wins in Northern Nevada.

[Miles]

Thank you for the explanation, Holmes.

[Tender Branson]

After 3 days of strong early voting in Washoe County, the party breakdown of early voters is 51% GOP, 38% DEM and 11% IND.

If we re-weight the PPP poll to these turnout numbers, it's:

46% Amodei, 40% Marshall

If we re-weight the Magellan poll to these turnout numbers, it's:

49% Amodei, 34% Marshall

If we then average these 2 adjusted polls, we have a 10-point lead for Amodei.

PPP better release another poll on the weekend before the election, otherwise Magellan wins.

[Meeker]

The early voting electorate is unlikely to have the same make-up as the election day electorate. I think you're trying to read too much into the data.

[DrScholl]

Let's remember that Magellan gave incorrect names in their poll, under that circumstance, they can't win anything, since their poll was flawed.