FL-SEN 2022: Nothing to see here

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Biden's team wants Val Demmings to run this race after being impressed with her vetting for VP, reportedly.

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Wasn't Murphy the conventional wisdom pick?

Why would she do that ? It’s basically a suicide mission which would end her political career (see Murphy)

Yeah, no compelling reason for either to run at the moment (and probably any moment through this cycle). Just sharing what I had read.

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Influential Broward Democrat sees Charlie Crist and Val Demings as the way for party to win 2022 governor and Senate races

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https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1388165455114903552?s=20

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For me, the most compelling part of Demings' announcement video was the inclusion of the clip of Christie stabbing Rubio in the Presidential debate. If she's able to tie Christie's (very well done) narrative into this campaign without falling victim to similar attacks herself, I think this could wind up being a closer race than the conventional wisdom here seems to think (though Rubio is still favored).

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We've been hired by an IE that is planning on spending up to eight figures to elect Demings if viable. Will start polling shortly after Labor Day and will be doing intensive qualitative research as well (my first time doing focus groups in Spanish).

This will be my first time polling in Florida since the Crist vs. Scott/Graham vs. Southerland work we did in 2014. We had both tracking at a dead even tie four days before the election. I haven't yet reviewed the work done in 2018 while I was on sabbatical but anticipate I'll become very familiar with it soon.

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We've been hired by an IE that is planning on spending up to eight figures to elect Demings if viable. Will start polling shortly after Labor Day and will be doing intensive qualitative research as well (my first time doing focus groups in Spanish).

This will be my first time polling in Florida since the Crist vs. Scott/Graham vs. Southerland work we did in 2014. We had both tracking at a dead even tie four days before the election. I haven't yet reviewed the work done in 2018 while I was on sabbatical but anticipate I'll become very familiar with it soon.

Seriously saddening, that tens of millions of dollars down the drain (and a great candidate) down the drain for Florida Dems against the electoral juggernaut Rubio.



What threshold is needed for a candidate to be "viable" though? Within 10%? Or within 3%?

Generally viability is determined less from the current state of the race and more from whether or not a fairly simulated campaign brings the candidate to at least the margin of error.

More often than not, viability assessments are run by candidates who know that they're viable already (because of their name recognition from previous offices or runs and/or because of the dynamics of the geography they're running in) and want to use the results to raise money. But sometimes they do indeed reveal new/unlikely places that are viable for competing in.

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She is running for state Senate, not Rubio's seat.

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Demings really isn’t a grifter - I’m inclined to believe this money will actually be spent wisely. Hopefully it can create a lasting infrastructure for future cycles.

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Demings really isn’t a grifter - I’m inclined to believe this money will actually be spent wisely. Hopefully it can create a lasting infrastructure for future cycles.

This is another SC-SEN 2020 situation. There's a lot of money going to this race that ultimately won't lead to a win or even a close race.

Not a single penny in the SC-Sen 2020 race was spent wisely.