Based on primary votes. . .

[Wells]

Clinton wins. Clinton received more votes during the primary than Trump (if you ignore votes for other candidates like Sanders, Rubio, Cruz), 16.9 million to 14 million. The map, under this scenario, is

Clinton 398
Trump 140

It's not going to happen, but it's pretty much the same analysis as this.

[uti2]

That's not how the 'primary model' works, Kerry got more total votes than Bush in 2004, but less concentrated proportionally in states relevant to the statistical 'primary model' election forecasting tool.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If we apply that to 2008 (the last election with no incumbent President), we get this result:

Obama 456
McCain 56

[Xing]

But Hillary's not exciting, so she has to lose.