GA-Landmark: Trump +4
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Author Topic: GA-Landmark: Trump +4  (Read 3158 times)
Alben Barkley
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« Reply #25 on: October 23, 2020, 03:07:05 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on October 23, 2020, 03:05:59 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on October 23, 2020, 03:01:13 PM
Quote from: Hammy on October 23, 2020, 02:59:53 PM
Landmark was the most accurate in 2016/18. Georgia flipping was always a pipe dream.

You flip from doomer to non-doomer and back again so fast and so often it's giving me whiplash.

Not dooming--I've never expected Biden to win GA/NC/TX.

It's dooming to say it's a "pipe dream" for Biden to win two states where he has a lead in the averages. Or even one where he is only very slightly down.
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Hammy
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« Reply #26 on: October 23, 2020, 03:08:39 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on October 23, 2020, 03:07:05 PM
Quote from: Hammy on October 23, 2020, 03:05:59 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on October 23, 2020, 03:01:13 PM
Quote from: Hammy on October 23, 2020, 02:59:53 PM
Landmark was the most accurate in 2016/18. Georgia flipping was always a pipe dream.

You flip from doomer to non-doomer and back again so fast and so often it's giving me whiplash.

Not dooming--I've never expected Biden to win GA/NC/TX.

It's dooming to say it's a "pipe dream" for Biden to win two states where he has a lead in the averages. Or even one where he is only very slightly down.

Well yes, when you have more bad quality polls than good quality ones, it's going to throw off the polling average. And as I've pointed out in other threads, NC for example seem to over-poll Dems in the same way Arizona does with Republicans.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #27 on: October 23, 2020, 03:09:28 PM »
I still have Georgia on Tilt D, but we'll see
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #28 on: October 23, 2020, 03:09:44 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2020, 03:27:12 PM by Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »

Lol I figured as much.

They've consistently been the worst GA pollster for Biden. Would've been more shocked if they had it a tie or slight Biden lead.

This is gonna flip Georgia back to Trump on 538, isn't it? Dammit. (EDIT: Yep it did. Son of a...)



Fun fact: Of the 13 pollsters who've polled Georgia this month (Including internals), only 4 have shown a Trump lead. Landmark, Emerson, University of Georgia & SurveyMonkey
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Buzz
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« Reply #29 on: October 23, 2020, 03:14:35 PM »
Imagine calling the gold standard of GA an outlier...
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #30 on: October 23, 2020, 03:21:23 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 23, 2020, 03:14:35 PM
Imagine calling the gold standard of GA an outlier...

Gold Standards can be outliers. We've gotten plenty of Georgia polls this month, only Landmark and Emerson have shown Trump leading.
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Rand
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« Reply #31 on: October 23, 2020, 03:23:32 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 23, 2020, 03:14:35 PM
Imagine calling the gold standard of GA an outlier...

Imagine thinking Donald Trump deserves re-election.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #32 on: October 23, 2020, 03:24:49 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on October 23, 2020, 03:21:23 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 23, 2020, 03:14:35 PM
Imagine calling the gold standard of GA an outlier...

Gold Standards can be outliers. We've gotten plenty of Georgia polls this month, only Landmark and Emerson have shown Trump leading.

Marquette had Clinton +6 as a final poll. Last time I checked that was supposed to be “the gold standard”.

I think a lot of these states have trouble picking up on how fast there shifting to the left or to the right based on demographic changes.
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RFayette
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« Reply #33 on: October 23, 2020, 03:25:10 PM »
Awesome poll!
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DrScholl
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« Reply #34 on: October 23, 2020, 03:27:03 PM »
Landmark leans Republican in polling and been pushing pro-Trump polls for months. Trash it.
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redjohn
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« Reply #35 on: October 23, 2020, 03:27:08 PM »

Yep, this adds a lot of value to political discourse.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #36 on: October 23, 2020, 03:27:19 PM »
Quote from: Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie) on October 23, 2020, 03:01:54 PM
GA is NOT voting way to the right of NC, so either this is an outlier or NC polls are overstating Democratic strength.

Outlier
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #37 on: October 23, 2020, 03:27:43 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 23, 2020, 03:14:35 PM
Imagine calling the gold standard of GA an outlier...
Quinnipiac is a gold standard pollster, yet they've issued outliers.
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Buzz
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« Reply #38 on: October 23, 2020, 03:30:11 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on October 23, 2020, 03:27:43 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 23, 2020, 03:14:35 PM
Imagine calling the gold standard of GA an outlier...
Quinnipiac is a gold standard pollster, yet they've issued outliers.

LOL I can’t wait to bump every Quinnipiac poll on 11/4 that was off by 7+ points.  There will be several.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #39 on: October 23, 2020, 03:31:14 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 23, 2020, 03:30:11 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on October 23, 2020, 03:27:43 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 23, 2020, 03:14:35 PM
Imagine calling the gold standard of GA an outlier...
Quinnipiac is a gold standard pollster, yet they've issued outliers.

LOL I can’t wait to bump every Quinnipiac poll on 11/4 that was off by 7+ points.  There will be several.

You'll be in questioning with the Secret Service on November 4th for making threats against President-elect Biden.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #40 on: October 23, 2020, 03:33:22 PM »
Interesting but starting to seem like the Wasserman stories of bloodbath in the suburbs are fiction.Possible that Republicans who want Trump to lose are leaking these. Trump isn’t winning Georgia if Wasserman  stories of 10 point swings in suburban areas are true.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #41 on: October 23, 2020, 03:34:42 PM »
The senate numbers in this poll are really off too. No other poll has had Perdue at 50% and Collins in second. Also Lieberman surging back from the brink with over 8%.
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Hammy
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« Reply #42 on: October 23, 2020, 03:35:44 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on October 23, 2020, 03:34:42 PM
The senate numbers in this poll are really off too. No other poll has had Perdue at 50% and Collins in second. Also Lieberman surging back from the brink with over 8%.

Too R-heavy sampling perhaps?
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TC 25
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« Reply #43 on: October 23, 2020, 03:35:57 PM »
My guess is we will see a few polls shifting toward Trump post debate.   Enough to make a difference? Time will tell but  the 370-400 EV predictions are looking more and more like fantasy.
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Ljube
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« Reply #44 on: October 23, 2020, 03:36:12 PM »
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on October 23, 2020, 03:33:22 PM
Interesting but starting to seem like the Wasserman stories of bloodbath in the suburbs are fiction.Possible that Republicans who want Trump to lose are leaking these. Trump isn’t winning Georgia if Wasserman  stories of 10 point swings in suburban areas are true.

I am pretty sure Republicans in the suburbs are coming home.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #45 on: October 23, 2020, 03:37:39 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on October 23, 2020, 03:35:44 PM
Quote from: BudgieForce on October 23, 2020, 03:34:42 PM
The senate numbers in this poll are really off too. No other poll has had Perdue at 50% and Collins in second. Also Lieberman surging back from the brink with over 8%.

Too R-heavy sampling perhaps?

I feel like thats been an issue in the past with Landmark. And that they've had the electorate too white. Hopefully we get the full poll so we can look at the crosstabs.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #46 on: October 23, 2020, 03:38:42 PM »
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on October 23, 2020, 03:33:22 PM
Interesting but starting to seem like the Wasserman stories of bloodbath in the suburbs are fiction.Possible that Republicans who want Trump to lose are leaking these. Trump isn’t winning Georgia if Wasserman  stories of 10 point swings in suburban areas are true.

Conversations with campaign people on the ground on both sides > one poll
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DrScholl
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« Reply #47 on: October 23, 2020, 03:39:12 PM »
And this is Landmark's third poll this month, which is suspect considering that they don't generally poll that much. What are they up to?
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Ljube
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« Reply #48 on: October 23, 2020, 03:39:25 PM »
Quote from: DrScholl on October 23, 2020, 03:38:22 PM
Quote from: Ljube on October 23, 2020, 03:36:12 PM
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on October 23, 2020, 03:33:22 PM
Interesting but starting to seem like the Wasserman stories of bloodbath in the suburbs are fiction.Possible that Republicans who want Trump to lose are leaking these. Trump isn’t winning Georgia if Wasserman  stories of 10 point swings in suburban areas are true.

I am pretty sure Republicans in the suburbs are coming home.

And I'm pretty sure you think California will flip to Trump because of, duh, reasons.

No. California will be a Biden blowout.
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Hammy
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« Reply #49 on: October 23, 2020, 03:42:16 PM »
Quote from: DrScholl on October 23, 2020, 03:39:12 PM
And this is Landmark's third poll this month, which is suspect considering that they don't generally poll that much. What are they up to?

From the polling history on Atlas it seems they poll more often during presidential years--in 2016 they had three between Sep 22 and Oct 20.
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