Trump: I WILL WIN VIRGINIA IN 2020

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The Orange Orangutan said he would win NY in 2016.

[Xing]

VA is Safe D. It would’ve been Safe D if Sanders or anyone else had been the nominee. Unless time travel becomes possible, we’re not going to see VA red (Atlas blue) on a map for a while.

[Non Swing Voter]

No.  Virginia would not have been Safe D if Bernie was the nominee.  NoVa numbers in Arlington and especially Fairfax would have tanked.  Bernie is toxic in UMC suburbs as the primary very clearly showed. 

[Grassroots]

Trump would win it against against Bernie if he won nationally. Biden is the nominee though, and he will still lose it even in a landslide victory.

[Xing]

Yeah, obviously there are tons of Obama/McAuliffe/Warner/Clinton/Northam/Kaine voters who have regularly voted Democratic who would’ve rushed to Trump’s arms had Sanders been the nominee, since he’s such a “bad fit” that a more than decade-long trend would not only stop but reverse itself to an enormous extent . Remind me how Obama lost MI and PA in 2008, did worse than Kerry/Gore in OH/FL, and how Clinton lost CO but won OH in 2016.

[jamestroll]

No.  Virginia would not have been Safe D if Bernie was the nominee.  NoVa numbers in Arlington and especially Fairfax would have tanked.  Bernie is toxic in UMC suburbs as the primary very clearly showed. 

Ironically Nova Numbers for Sanders would have still been far above the national median for Sanders lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is obsessed with VA, that's for sure. Dems have had a long streak of winning VA, that will end sooner or later

[Non Swing Voter]

Yeah, obviously there are tons of Obama/McAuliffe/Warner/Clinton/Northam/Kaine voters who have regularly voted Democratic who would’ve rushed to Trump’s arms had Sanders been the nominee, since he’s such a “bad fit” that a more than decade-long trend would not only stop but reverse itself to an enormous extent . Remind me how Obama lost MI and PA in 2008, did worse than Kerry/Gore in OH/FL, and how Clinton lost CO but won OH in 2016.

Didn't you also think Bernie was going to do a lot better than he did in the primary? 

[Non Swing Voter]

No.  Virginia would not have been Safe D if Bernie was the nominee.  NoVa numbers in Arlington and especially Fairfax would have tanked.  Bernie is toxic in UMC suburbs as the primary very clearly showed. 

Ironically Nova Numbers for Sanders would have still been far above the national median for Sanders lol.

Probably because Virginia doesn't have early voting (yet).  There were only 3 real choices: Biden, Bernie, Warren.  So everyone got some share of the other votes.  Interestingly (and anecdotally) though, I know a lot of female Warren voters in Fairfax who are friends.  They all told me Biden was their second choice even though she was supposedly sharing a lane with Bernie.  Bernie just comes off as a socialist fanatic to a lot of suburban voters even though Warren had some similar policies.  Bernie's temperament is almost as bad as Trump's.  Biden offers a much better contrast in the general election which will play very well in states like Virginia.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

No.  Virginia would not have been Safe D if Bernie was the nominee.  NoVa numbers in Arlington and especially Fairfax would have tanked.  Bernie is toxic in UMC suburbs as the primary very clearly showed. 

Disagree. There are tons of young (<40) professionals in Arlington/Fairfax/Falls Church who would have found Sanders appealing. Older NoVA liberals despise Trump more than they may dislike Sanders and >95% of them would have voted for Sanders.

Evergreen reminder that Lee Carter is from Manassas, and has had several bills passed which are pretty much right out of the Sanders/DSA agenda:

https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1248787829968297985

https://twitter.com/ActivateVA/status/1249141420172206081

[Bidenworth2020]

Trump would have had a great chance in Virginia had Bernie been the nominee. The exit polls there had Bernie at 47-48 approval with DEMOCRATS.

[Non Swing Voter]

No.  Virginia would not have been Safe D if Bernie was the nominee.  NoVa numbers in Arlington and especially Fairfax would have tanked.  Bernie is toxic in UMC suburbs as the primary very clearly showed. 

Disagree. There are tons of young (<40) professionals in Arlington/Fairfax/Falls Church who would have found Sanders appealing. Older NoVA liberals despise Trump more than they may dislike Sanders and >95% of them would have voted for Sanders.

Evergreen reminder that Lee Carter is from Manassas, and has had several bills passed which are pretty much right out of the Sanders/DSA agenda:

https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1248787829968297985

https://twitter.com/ActivateVA/status/1249141420172206081

Well that's entirely anecdotal so I'll respond anecdotally by saying that I am an under 40 fiscally conservative socially liberal Fairfax voter (like you mention above) who voted for Biden in the primary but would absolutely NOT have voted for Sanders under any circumstances in the general election.  There are others like me here.  It's one thing to hate Trump but people who worked hard and already pay a lot in taxes aren't a fan of Bernie's insane socialist rhetoric, even if we know that they have zero chance of ever becoming law.  Virginia is a pragmatic not ultra-liberal state.

[Intell]

They were going to vote for Sanders over Trump, maybe some very few moderates who voted R down ballot would not vote for him but the vast majority of the voters in suburban VA would vote for Sanders. If there was a Sanders vs Romney matchup the situation would most likely be different, I would agree with that.

 I know UK and the US aren't directly comparable but the areas in which Corbyn improved the most are exactly amongst socially liberal, fiscally moderate voters in London and the London surburbia/commuter towns. This was because of Brexit in the UK and in the US sanders would've done just as well amongst these voters because of Trump.

[heatcharger]

Disagree. There are tons of young (<40) professionals in Arlington/Fairfax/Falls Church who would have found Sanders appealing. Older NoVA liberals despise Trump more than they may dislike Sanders and >95% of them would have voted for Sanders.

Evergreen reminder that Lee Carter is from Manassas, and has had several bills passed which are pretty much right out of the Sanders/DSA agenda:

I think the primary results make this specific case hard to make. Sanders got 3rd in Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church indicating young professionals were severely outvoted and/or didn't have much love for Sanders to begin with. As for older, richer communities, he was a non-entity. Some precincts that stand out to me personally:

Great Falls

Biden 62%
Bloomberg 18%
Sanders 13%

Langley

Biden 60%
Bloomberg 21%
Sanders 10%

Belmont Ridge

Biden 63%
Bloomberg 17%
Sanders 14%

I think most Democratic primary voters would've ended up coming to terms with a Sanders nomination, but there's a deep unresolved skepticism from older, financially stable, risk-averse Democrats, particularly in Virginia. The Democratic exit poll last month showed two alarming numbers:

Opinion of Bernie Sanders:
46% favorable
48% unfavorable

Vote Democratic in Nov. regardless of nominee? Among people who answered No (20%):
40% Biden
29% Sanders
15% Bloomberg

In a normal election year with the health of the economy the way it was, it wasn't unrealistic to think some bloodletting might've happened in NoVA. Sanders would've been thoroughly crushed in rural parts of the state (in a way he wouldn't have been in 2016) and would've had serious black turnout issues. I think he ultimately would've held on but the recipe was there for a more competitive state than in 2016.

As for Carter, that he's a hard leftist is an anomaly, and a Democrat of any ideological background could hold his seat. His political future is pretty limited right now in my view.

But this discussion is outdated now because Biden will win Virginia by a lot and Sanders would've had no problem with the impending recession.

[morgankingsley]

I think he bit himself in the foot by saying this and not even campaigning there. At least with Minnesota, I can see the validity on if somebody feels like he has a chance to flip it as he has actually campaigned there and placed resources, which is much more than he did for Virginia, which means if people remember this pledge and he fails to keep it, they would think he was just lying

[Non Swing Voter]

Disagree. There are tons of young (<40) professionals in Arlington/Fairfax/Falls Church who would have found Sanders appealing. Older NoVA liberals despise Trump more than they may dislike Sanders and >95% of them would have voted for Sanders.

Evergreen reminder that Lee Carter is from Manassas, and has had several bills passed which are pretty much right out of the Sanders/DSA agenda:

I think the primary results make this specific case hard to make. Sanders got 3rd in Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church indicating young professionals were severely outvoted and/or didn't have much love for Sanders to begin with. As for older, richer communities, he was a non-entity. Some precincts that stand out to me personally:

Great Falls

Biden 62%
Bloomberg 18%
Sanders 13%

Langley

Biden 60%
Bloomberg 21%
Sanders 10%

Belmont Ridge

Biden 63%
Bloomberg 17%
Sanders 14%

I think most Democratic primary voters would've ended up coming to terms with a Sanders nomination, but there's a deep unresolved skepticism from older, financially stable, risk-averse Democrats, particularly in Virginia. The Democratic exit poll last month showed two alarming numbers:

Opinion of Bernie Sanders:
46% favorable
48% unfavorable

Vote Democratic in Nov. regardless of nominee? Among people who answered No (20%):
40% Biden
29% Sanders
15% Bloomberg

In a normal election year with the health of the economy the way it was, it wasn't unrealistic to think some bloodletting might've happened in NoVA. Sanders would've been thoroughly crushed in rural parts of the state (in a way he wouldn't have been in 2016) and would've had serious black turnout issues. I think he ultimately would've held on but the recipe was there for a more competitive state than in 2016.

As for Carter, that he's a hard leftist is an anomaly, and a Democrat of any ideological background could hold his seat. His political future is pretty limited right now in my view.

But this discussion is outdated now because Biden will win Virginia by a lot and Sanders would've had no problem with the impending recession.

It's fairly safe to say that all those Bloomberg voters in Great Falls and McLean would have broken heavily for Biden against Bernie as well. 

[Non Swing Voter]

I think he bit himself in the foot by saying this and not even campaigning there. At least with Minnesota, I can see the validity on if somebody feels like he has a chance to flip it as he has actually campaigned there and placed resources, which is much more than he did for Virginia, which means if people remember this pledge and he fails to keep it, they would think he was just lying

Yeah but I mean it's Trump.  He lies all the time and forgets what he said last week.  He could also just be trying to make a threat to go on offensive.  The problem with that strategy is there are very few Hillary states that are viable and many of them offer few electoral votes (Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine).  The only three Hillary states that are theoretically viable and have decent EC votes are CO, VA, MN... but none of these seem likely given the 2018 results. 

Also, Trump quit in VA surprisingly early in 2016 so I think he knows he's not viable here.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

No.  Virginia would not have been Safe D if Bernie was the nominee.  NoVa numbers in Arlington and especially Fairfax would have tanked.  Bernie is toxic in UMC suburbs as the primary very clearly showed.  

Disagree. There are tons of young (<40) professionals in Arlington/Fairfax/Falls Church who would have found Sanders appealing. Older NoVA liberals despise Trump more than they may dislike Sanders and >95% of them would have voted for Sanders.

Evergreen reminder that Lee Carter is from Manassas, and has had several bills passed which are pretty much right out of the Sanders/DSA agenda:

https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1248787829968297985

https://twitter.com/ActivateVA/status/1249141420172206081

Well that's entirely anecdotal so I'll respond anecdotally by saying that I am an under 40 fiscally conservative socially liberal Fairfax voter (like you mention above) who voted for Biden in the primary but would absolutely NOT have voted for Sanders under any circumstances in the general election.  There are others like me here.  It's one thing to hate Trump but people who worked hard and already pay a lot in taxes aren't a fan of Bernie's insane socialist rhetoric, even if we know that they have zero chance of ever becoming law.  Virginia is a pragmatic not ultra-liberal state.

Erm... the fact that DSA policy agenda items have been passed by a legislature run by NoVA Democrats and signed by a moderate governor is not anecdotal.

But, sure, we can trade anecdotes all day. My mother and her husband are both are both 60-70 year old Biden voters in Alexandria who said in February they would reluctantly vote for Sanders. My extended family (similar demographics) in Arlington, Falls Church and Frederick were also Biden/reluctant Sanders voters. My father is a professional degree-holding retiree in his early 70s  with medical debt who would have enthusiastically voted for Warren, Sanders or Biden (Warren primary voter). Every person I went to high school with who still lives in Fairfax County was a Sanders voter.

Sure, you'd lose some Romney-Clinton voters. But you don't need those people to win statewide. Hillary could have dropped 100K voters and, if they had not voted for Trump (which anti-Sanders protest voters would not have done) would have still beaten Trump in 2016.

Your circle of idiosyncratic friends is not necessarily representative of the whole state. There are plenty of reasons to think Sanders would still win Virginia handily: widespread and high enrollment at a good but expensive public university system, large pools of Sanders-friendly voters in FFX/PWC/LoCo (Hispanics, Muslim Americans, college educated whites, politically active 18-22 year olds), and most importantly, a pretty high D floor since 2009. Most of these people, if they show up to vote, are D loylists; if you put Sanders messaging against Trump's, then they're going to look for reasons to support him.

[jamestroll]

I have seen many many people state that if Sanders was the nominee that all of Nova would vote for Trump by gigantic scary margins and that VA would have been Safe R.

In reality I still think it would have been something like:

Loudoun: 53 to 44 Sanders
Fairfax 58 to 41 Sanders
PWC 59 to 40 Sanders

[Bidenworth2020]

I have seen many many people state that if Sanders was the nominee that all of Nova would vote for Trump by gigantic scary margins and that VA would have been Safe R.

In reality I still think it would have been something like:

Loudoun: 53 to 44 Sanders
Fairfax 58 to 41 Sanders
PWC 59 to 40 Sanders

Umm, in what world is Sanders doing better in PWC than Fairfax? I doubt he does 20 points worse in Fairfax and he sure as hell isn't improving on Hillary in PWC. Loudoun looks solid though.

[jamestroll]

I have seen many many people state that if Sanders was the nominee that all of Nova would vote for Trump by gigantic scary margins and that VA would have been Safe R.

In reality I still think it would have been something like:

Loudoun: 53 to 44 Sanders
Fairfax 58 to 41 Sanders
PWC 59 to 40 Sanders

Umm, in what world is Sanders doing better in PWC than Fairfax? I doubt he does 20 points worse in Fairfax and he sure as hell isn't improving on Hillary in PWC. Loudoun looks solid though.

PWC more minority heavy and I feel like the Sanders drop off would be stronger in Fairfax than PWC.

[Bidenworth2020]

I have seen many many people state that if Sanders was the nominee that all of Nova would vote for Trump by gigantic scary margins and that VA would have been Safe R.

In reality I still think it would have been something like:

Loudoun: 53 to 44 Sanders
Fairfax 58 to 41 Sanders
PWC 59 to 40 Sanders

Umm, in what world is Sanders doing better in PWC than Fairfax? I doubt he does 20 points worse in Fairfax and he sure as hell isn't improving on Hillary in PWC. Loudoun looks solid though.

PWC more minority heavy and I feel like the Sanders drop off would be stronger in Fairfax than PWC.

Your prediction has Sanders collapsing in Fairfax (20 points than Hillary and 4 worse than Obama), while doing better than Hillary in PWC. Maybe the gap between the two is closer, but Fairfax would still undoubtedly be moe left.

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

Trump's ceiling is Gillespie 2017. He is an awful fit for the state.

[Xing]

Yeah, obviously there are tons of Obama/McAuliffe/Warner/Clinton/Northam/Kaine voters who have regularly voted Democratic who would’ve rushed to Trump’s arms had Sanders been the nominee, since he’s such a “bad fit” that a more than decade-long trend would not only stop but reverse itself to an enormous extent . Remind me how Obama lost MI and PA in 2008, did worse than Kerry/Gore in OH/FL, and how Clinton lost CO but won OH in 2016.

Didn't you also think Bernie was going to do a lot better than he did in the primary? 

I mean, between NH and SC I overestimated his overall chances, yes, but so did most posters. The only states I guessed he would win that he didn’t were ME and MN (and I guess IA.) Either way, that says nothing about GE predictions, and it’s not like I’m predicting Sanders would do several points better than Biden there, simply that VA is a (somewhat light) blue state now, and pretty much any Democrat would beat Trump, an incredibly divisive president who’s very unpopular there, even if some Democrats didn’t end up loving the nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bush W made a concerted effort to appeal to Blacks and Latinos. Trump only appeals to WC whites and so does Pence. Bush W had Condi Rice as Natl Security advisor and Trump like Bush Sr has Pence, whom is another Dan Quayle, that's why Bush W won VA, NC, and FL. Also, McCain pushed Bush W to left on immigration reform and Campaign finance reform and minimum wage Bill,  which Bush W signed to get reelected after Enron in 2002. Having no McCain, is just like Dems felt after 2010 shellacking without Teddy Kennedy, to defend Obamacare. The bill, Teddy crafted himself