Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

Negative bounce for Obama in picking the plagarizer as his running mate.   

This is what happens when you allow the DU/Moveon.org moonbats dictate your running mate.  "1st and 3rd most liberal members of the senate"

Same thing happened in 2004.   Ouch!

Except there was no negative bounce then.  I think a different dynamic may be at work.

[Sam Spade]

Strange. That's all I can say ...

Probably has to do with a four-letter word that starts with a "P", if it is really occurring. 

Be patient though.

[Sam Spade]

not surprising, actually.  

[Sam Spade]

Sounds about right.

[Sam Spade]

Sam, I'm sure you've already discussed this elsewhere, but how do you see the GOP essentially stepping on the Dem's convention working out?

EDIT:

In terms of the bounce and polling, of course.

You're talking about the VP pick right?  Not the rest of the stuff.  Hard to tell.  Probably mitigates it somewhat.  Be patient.

[Sam Spade]

Numbers-wise, Gallup's day sample today looks pretty similar to Rasmussen's - probably somewhere in-between O+11 and O+13 after being O+6 the past couple of days.  Obama should probably move up tomorrow slightly, depending on how much movement there is tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

Ya, looks like the Labor Day sample on both Rasmussen and Gallup has definitely not continued into today.  This sample was at maximum Obama +2 to +4 and it might even be tied (hard to tell).  The Labor Day sample falls off Friday.

[Sam Spade]

As in contrast to Rasmussen, McCain's sample today was slightly worse to what we had before (the sample that dropped off here was an Obama +4 to +5 sample, around the same as Rasmussen).  Nevertheless, McCain will almost assuredly move at least a couple of points closer tomorrow once the Labor Day sample drops off tomorrow (as it was at least Obama +11).  It could be more.  We'll see.

[Sam Spade]

Ya, I agree with JJ on this point as to what and when to check.  Tuesday is also as good as Monday, really.

Strangely enough, I also do agree with him that there appears to be a continual mid-week/weekend bias for the two candidates, though I really have no clue how important it is.

[Sam Spade]

Infomania: last few days were Obama +1, Obama +7 and Obama +4.

Sounds about right.

[Sam Spade]

Infomania: last few days were Obama +1, Obama +7 and Obama +4.

Is that reverse order or actual order? (Was Obama +1 yesterday or Tuesday?)

The O+1 would have almost certainly been yesterday.

[Sam Spade]

Straightforward math would tell us today's sample was somewhere around McCain +1 to McCain +3 given the graph posted above.

[Sam Spade]

Straightforward math would tell us today's sample was somewhere around McCain +1 to McCain +3 given the graph posted above.

More like a tie to M+2. (7+1+0)/3 = 2.333, (7+1-1)/3 = 2, (7+1-2)/3 = 1.667. M+3 would give an Obama lead of 1. Of course, allowing for the possibility that O+7 and O+1 are rounded, it could be anywhere from O+2 to M+3.

Ya, that's right.  Anyway, please continue to be patient... 

EDIT:  If Wed is O+7 and Thurs is O+1, then M+3 on Friday, would give you 5/3 = 1.667.  So, my number is right, so long as those numbers are right.  We should have a better feeling by Monday at the earliest, Thursday at the latest, IMHO.

[Sam Spade]

Since everyone here seems to like and respect him (even though I retain my doubts), this is what Nate Silver says Gallup and Rasmussen look like:

Gallup
Wednesday: Obama +7.8
Thursday: Obama +2.4
Friday: McCain +4.2

Rasmussen
Wednesday: Obama +4.9
Thursday: Obama +3.8
Friday: Obama +0.3

More on his opinion here:

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/06/today-s-polls-the-bounce-cometh.aspx

[Sam Spade]

If Silver is right, this means Saturday's numbers were somewhere in the ballpark of McCain +7 (+1 or -1).

[Sam Spade]

Gallup says:

Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party's presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.

Using this dynamic - Obama bounce:

Obama 49 (45)
McCain 43 (45)

McCain bounce (if you want to begin last Monday, instead of Tuesday (when Gustav hit), then 49-43 is the start point)

Obama 50 (?)
McCain 42 (?)

The VP picks affected all of this, so keep that in mind.

[Sam Spade]

Gallup refers to the bounce as the amount of support a candidate has gained, not the change in margin, just fyi.

[Sam Spade]

Ya, last night must have been McCain +4 or so, as well, similar to the sample that dropped off.  I think Sunday's sample was slightly more McCain favorable, so it might move down a point tomorrow, depending on what new result we get tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

(7.2+3.6+X)/3=5
x=4.2

If Gallup says the margins have been similar the last four nights, then the 7.2 might not be as high, and the others might not be as low.  Just FYI - it's hard to get it exact.  Of course, maybe 7.2 to them is the same as 3.6. 

[Sam Spade]

Be patient, folks...

[Sam Spade]

Has to do with the economy, probably.

[Sam Spade]

Has to do with the economy, probably.

I concur.

The key is figuring out whether this is only a one-day spike, and not a continuation of the gradual movement we've observed since last Thursday.  Like I said in the other thread.

[Sam Spade]

A few observations:

1. The earlier movement downward in the tracking polls from middle of last week I'm pretty sure had to do with McCain building an "unrealistic" lead among Independents post-RNC, which faded back down to roughly about even (where it had been pre-DNC).  I pretty much noted that, which is why I said the height of McCain's bounce was M+3 or M+2, while Gallup was saying M+5.

2. The present movement downward has little to do with Independent movement and is mostly due to shifts in party ID.  I don't have Gallup's exact numbers, but in comparison to Rasmussen's stable Dem +5, I'm willing to bet good money that Gallup is back to Dem +7-9. Hotline also has it as Dem +5, but I simply don't trust them as much (for good reason).  Note where Kos has it, flaws and all.

3. Post-RNC, it was pretty clear that a push would be found at a party ID of Dem +7.  It is quite possible that the push may now instead exist at a party ID of Dem +5 or Dem +6, but I am unsure as of yet.  I need to see how Rasmussen is at the end of the week in order for me to make a call.  That movement would indicate *actual* movement and something to really note.

4. The trick is to figure out whether this is actual party ID shift in voters or whether Republicans are becoming less enthused and are showing up less in polling.  Only time will tell there.

That is all. 

[Sam Spade]

Everything is starting to fit quite nicely now.  More later.

[Sam Spade]

The Battleground poll is slow to react because it's an eight-day tracker.

Actually, it isn't.  It's 9/11, 9/14, 9/17 and 9/18.  I really can't explain the date significance.