NH-1: Shea-Porter (D) to retire

[RINO Tom]

Lol. Well, RIP FF, this is actually pretty sad news (NH-01 can definitely do A LOT worse than CSP). Democrats should still win the GE fairly easily, and I expect NH-01 to be just as Democratic-friendly as NH-02 very soon (it's trending strongly Democratic, whether people like it or not).

2012: 50% CSP, 46% Guinta
2012: 50% Obama, 49% Romney
2014: 52% Guinta, 48% CSP
2016: 44% CSP, 43% Guinta
2016: 48% Trump, 47% Clinton

How is it "trending strongly Democratic"?

[RINO Tom]

Lol. Well, RIP FF, this is actually pretty sad news (NH-01 can definitely do A LOT worse than CSP). Democrats should still win the GE fairly easily, and I expect NH-01 to be just as Democratic-friendly as NH-02 very soon (it's trending strongly Democratic, whether people like it or not).

2012: 50% CSP, 46% Guinta
2012: 50% Obama, 49% Romney
2014: 52% Guinta, 48% CSP
2016: 44% CSP, 43% Guinta
2016: 48% Trump, 47% Clinton

How is it "trending strongly Democratic"?

I know Republicans did better in NH in 2016 than I and many other people expected, but I'm pretty sure that this district is still trending Democratic in the long term. All that attention as well as time and money spent in NH by the Republicans and they couldn't even win one of the three "big competitive" races (PRES, SEN, NH-01) despite the fact that 2016 was a very good year for them in general. They also lost two races that "should" have been competitive in 2014 (SEN, GOV). Yeah, Trump and Ayotte won the district, but it was a lot closer than it should have been if NH were really still a true swing state. Ayotte needed to win NH-01 by more than she actually did, and she even did worse than Scott Brown in Rockingham County. Sununu did well there, but he was running as a moderate (who is fairly liberal on many social issues) and against an awful opponent. We'll see how kind NH voters will be to him and his fellow Republicans in 2018.

Either way, even if you're convinced that NH is a pure Tossup/swing state, you'll have to admit that the Democrats' floor here and in NH-02 is very high, much higher than it was a decade ago or so. Given all the demographic changes as well as the fact that the GOP has been alienating enough moderate voters (including some former Republicans) with some of their positions and rhetoric on controversial social and economic issues, I don't expect the outlook for the NH GOP to be much rosier in the future either. The NH GOP is definitely in big trouble IMO.

I think NH is a fairly competitive state with a decisively Democratic lean, but I do not think the 1st CD is the reason.  It is still the only reason Republicans have any chance there, ever.