Which winning map is better for Lee Zeldin (or any statewide NY Republican)?

[bagelman]

We know that Zeldin is very unlikely to win, even if he overpreforms the normal GOP performance in New York. There's no need to remind us of this in this thread. However, if Zeldin or any other statewide Republican wins an election now or in 2024, which map would be better for their future prospects statewide or national prospects?

A. Gets much of upstate to vote like it's not adjacent to New England, and wins Albany, Monroe, and Eire counties while losing only Tompkins.

B. Loses New York City by much less than normal while getting fairly pedestrian numbers upstate, losing Albany/Monroe/Erie but still winning the region as a whole.

In both scenarios Suffolk County and Staten Island are very strongly GOP, and Nassau votes GOP. However Nassau votes stronger for the GOP in B than A.

Both scenarios involve the same winning GOP margin, somewhere from 1-4 points.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think you need to be that strong in both areas together for the math to work. A only really works if turnout in the city completely tanks, unless I am missing something.

[Skill and Chance]

The city, because it would suggest the realignment of many non-white voters is robust and not a one-off anti-lockdown reaction.