538 model & poll tracker thread

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It's honestly a disgrace that their model isn't up yet. What is the hold up?!

Big swing and a miss by Nate this year.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

i've just given up at this point lol

Me too, I have moved to JHK and predictit.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Nate Silver had 3 models in 2016. There was polls,polls+, polls+economy.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I'm not going to complain about any of the given results.

I just want to:



Make 538 Aesthetics Great Again.

The Sarah Palin bump was very strong early on. Pre Lehman Brothers collapse, the race was going to be very close. Obama was up by 2-3 points in the summer.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

LOL, this is one of the maps that showed up on the 100 randomly selected maps.

I suppose it models the random incident whereby a meteor hits the Dakotas or Canada invades between now and November and installs a puppet liberal government in areas under its control.

The Canadian voter fraud bus driving illegal Canadians across the border to steal Montana broke down. Sad!

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It's crazy how 4% makes the difference between Trump winning a squeaker & Biden having the best election performance since Bush '88

Democrats are on the wrong side of a delayed realignment. 2016 showed huge collapses in the Midwest, there was a giant counter trend in the Sun Belt, but TX,GA,AZ were too solidly Republican to flip in one election cycle. WI, PA and MI were flippable as they were only tilt/lean D, not safe like the Republican Sunbelt

For those who prefer the SUNBELT STACK, it is possible in a +8 NPV Biden landslide.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

And we've gotten Biden +12, Biden +13, and Biden +9 this morning, and it's still at Biden +8.0.

Once again, for whatever reason, it's as if good Biden polls don't help all that much, but a bad one hurts way more than the good ones help.

There was two new PA polls today with Biden +9. There was also a Biden +7 poll, Nate has Biden only up  4.7 in PA.