538 model & poll tracker thread (user search)
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  538 model & poll tracker thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 model & poll tracker thread  (Read 58032 times)
afleitch
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« on: August 12, 2020, 08:01:11 AM »
I'm actually all for at least one model that perhaps over states Trump's chances.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2020, 03:57:07 PM »
It seems they are using economic data back since 1880(!) but not Presidential Approval. I think that is strange.
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afleitch
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2020, 08:59:30 AM »
I mean, it's clear Trump will try and steal the election by 'vanishing' postal votes. It's why it's important for him to keep both the epidemic going and his base unafraid of it. So it's worth the model accounting for unpredictability.

You know he has no intention of leaving. Right?
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afleitch
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« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2020, 10:27:11 AM »
The economics/incumbency 'boost' is new to the model this year?
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