Some of y'all are acting like Biden has a 15 point lead and that the election is tomorrow. The topline numbers of the model seem perfectly rational, and uncertainly inherently decreases the closer you get to the election.
15% leads are rare in Presidential politics, but they happen. This is on the scale of Reagan versus Mondale in the 1984 result, That's not to say that such will be the result, but
(1) Donald Trump is awful, as is approval numbers show.
(2) There are strong Republicans-for Biden and groups ordinarily associated with Republicans for Biden.
(3) Trump has done nothing to assuage people who found him abominable for his expressions of self. Usually a pol can convince many people that he isn't that bad if given a chance. Not this time!
(4) COVID-19 has killed like a bungled war, and Trump bungled that metaphoric war.
(5) Joe Biden is a known commodity.
(6) Joe Biden has nominated a VP who seems to have little baggage.
