538 model & poll tracker thread (user search)
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  538 model & poll tracker thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 model & poll tracker thread  (Read 58028 times)
Sadader
Jr. Member
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Posts: 284
Botswana


« on: August 12, 2020, 06:45:09 AM »
Silver is struggling with the fact that he’s lost his (easily imitable) competitive advantage from averaging & adjusting polls. Just wait until ~40 days from the election to release it. It’s utterly useless now.

The model is assuming that the economy will be way better in November! LMAO. Let’s not throw a bunch of garbage uncertainty in to save face and then just imagine it’ll be (comparatively) easy to project where the economy’ll be!
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Sadader
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 284
Botswana


« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2020, 10:55:37 AM »
I think Nate should really apologize to @gelliotmorris, lol.
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Sadader
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 284
Botswana


« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2020, 12:15:42 PM »
The reckoning has begun
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Sadader
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 284
Botswana


« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2020, 03:27:16 AM »
The arbitrary fudging to increase uncertainty is just silly

There’s literally an ~8% chance that the PV lies outside Biden -10% to +20% (!!!)
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