538 model & poll tracker thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The model is live at that link.

Won't work for me, what does it say?

Biden at 71% chance to win.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Utterly bizarre looking model though. Hoping it gets revised to at least include a map where you can hover over each state and see its predictions.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

538 is not overestimating Trump, everyone else is overestimating Biden. Same thing happened last time.

Even if that was true, you'd expect to see better Trump percentages in the swing states instead of these absurd numbers in safe states. Some states really do have a 0% chance of flipping.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't mind the model as much as I mind the god awful appearance of it as a whole.

I actually like the winding path of electoral votes that visualises the idea of the tipping point state, and it probably is more effective at showing where the race stands than a map where the two sides are at roughly similar land area even if they are at very different levels of electoral votes.

I get your point, but there's nothing mentally easier than hovering over a map and seeing projected popular vote numbers by state pop up. I don't want to have to search and click all over the place just to see what % of the vote 538 thinks Biden is getting in AZ.