Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We desperately need to get involved NOW.

My guy. Your country is providing equipment and military intelligence to Ukraine, and helped organise one of the most coordinated sanctions packages in history. That’s how the West intervenes.

Sending our planes, ships or troops would be the opening salvo in an East-West war and take us within inches of nuclear war. That’s why we’re running non-direct action, and that’s why I find this cheerleading so disturbing.

Last I heard, Poland is providing MiGs to Ukraine along with pilots to fly the planes. That's as damn close as we can get to actual boots on the ground without provoking a massive broader war.

I actually don't know how it doesn't count as direct intervention. I'll leave that to the strategerists.

I’m afraid the news about the MiGs may be incorrect.

Yesterday, EU foreign policy high representative Josep Borrell incorrectly implied the EU itself was delivering/funding fighter jet deliveries when that was not the case. Another diplomat who said they’d be “flying within the hour” was wildly speculating. At the present moment, an EU spokesperson has clarified, member states are able to deliver jets of their own accord, but not collectively or with guaranteed EU funding. There is ongoing discussion of further measures, and I’ve found no statement from Polish representatives confirming a delivering of any jets.

There has been movement of large transports between Poland and Ukraine, but there’s no confirmation that jets have actually been , or will be, sent (although Ukraine has requested them). If the EU is still discussing this and member states are not acting of their own accord, they may find their deliveries have no Ukranian Air Force to work with by the time they are delivered. It is also possible there simply isn’t the desire to send any, and the Russians did claim that they have air supremacy as of this morning.

All that said, if I were head of an ex-Soviet state delivering warplanes to Ukraine, I would only confirm it once those planes had been up in the air and noticed by Russia for some time. EU states gave Ukraine air-to-air missiles yesterday, so I would guess they still have functional jets.

If I were Poland or whomever delivering warplanes to Ukraine, 1) I would not publicize it, and 2) if it were reported that I was, to the extent necessary, I would take a page out of the Putin playbook, and deny it, or mislead. No such planes are being delivered to Ukraine. That statement is technically true because they were delivered an hour ago, which is past tense rather than present tense.

I can see the rationale, but that’s not the strategy Poland has taken with its other weapon deliveries - at least, with the ones we know about (perhaps there’s a lot they’re hiding, but I’d have thought anything significant would be reported by someone if it was being used). Planes are too big to hide for long, especially if they aren’t receiving a coat of Ukranian paint before being sent abroad.

With respect to unconfirmed reports claiming deliveries are happening or have happened, most relate to Poland (or the trio of Poland, Bulgaria and Slovakia).

[Torie]

A few years ago I came to the conclusion that sports events tied to nations are bad, something with which I don't want to be associated, and do not watch. Their ratings will not be enhanced by moi. They should all be shut down, starting with the Olympics.

The Olympics should not be shut down

The planet put my good advice on ignore, so I have every confidence that you will be able to continue to watch these distasteful  displays of nationalism attended by corruption.

[Person Man]

Planned utilization of Russia to Europe gas pipes via Ukraine for tomorrow continues to be at a record.  So Russia continues to ship gas to Europe and get paid for it and Ukraine continue to get paid by Russia for transit even as fighting continues.

That's actually good for some people to know.

[OSR stands with Israel]

A few years ago I came to the conclusion that sports events tied to nations are bad, something with which I don't want to be associated, and do not watch. Their ratings will not be enhanced by moi. They should all be shut down, starting with the Olympics.

The Olympics should not be shut down

The planet put my good advice of ignore, so I have every confidence that you will be able to continue to watch these distasteful  displays of nationalism attended by corruption.

One of the best part of the 2016 Olympics was watching how throughly the US kicked the buts of China and Russia

[Mehmentum]

Demilitarization is a non-starter.  I could maybe see a deal with recognition of Russian ownership of Crimea and Donbass.  But demilitarization leaves Ukraine completely helpless to the next (inevitable) Russian invasion.

Also, 'Denazification' is code for regime change so safe to say Putin isn't interested in any real negotiation.

[Torie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tvrain/status/1498319404660142084
Putin spoke with Macron According to the Kremlin, a settlement with Ukraine is possible if "taking into account the legitimate interests of Russia in the field of security":
- recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea
- demilitarization [rendering Ukraine defenseless] and denazification [regime change with Putin puppet] of Ukraine
- ensuring the neutral status of Ukraine

No signs of a climb down from Putin yet.

If Putin harped on that, the call would have lasted for 5 minutes, not 90.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tvrain/status/1498319404660142084
Putin spoke with Macron According to the Kremlin, a settlement with Ukraine is possible if "taking into account the legitimate interests of Russia in the field of security":
- recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea
- demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine
- ensuring the neutral status of Ukraine

No signs of a climb down from Putin yet.

Lmao if the Russian negotiating positions are this clearly a farce, then Ukraine should demand an unconditional withdrawal, Crimea back, & reparations in return.

[Helsinkian]

New opinion poll in Finland, conducted from 23 to 25 February by the national broadcaster YLE:

"Should Finland join NATO?"

• Yes 53%
• No 28%

The "yes" share is up 34 points from 19% in 2017 when YLE last did such a poll.

Other questions:

"If Sweden were to join NATO, should Finland join NATO?"

• Yes 66%
• No 20%

"If the government were to support joining NATO, would you then support joining NATO?"

• Yes 63%
• No 23%

"Should there be a referendum on joining NATO?"

• Yes 41%
• No 48%

The government has not indicated, at least publicly, any change of mind on NATO, but then again things are moving quickly on many fronts: two days ago the government was against sending weapons to Ukraine, but now they are going to do it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Speak of the devil... after an increasing number of individual nations had announced their refusal to play against Russia, FIFA has now reversed yesterday's decision and suspended Russia.


https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/1498317932228665348

[Sir Mohamed]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tvrain/status/1498319404660142084
Putin spoke with Macron According to the Kremlin, a settlement with Ukraine is possible if "taking into account the legitimate interests of Russia in the field of security":
- recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea
- demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine
- ensuring the neutral status of Ukraine

No signs of a climb down from Putin yet.

Lmao if the Russian negotiating positions are this clearly a farce, then Ukraine should demand an unconditional withdrawal, Crimea back, & reparations in return.

Yup, and this "denazifaction" stuff is an insult of epic magnitude and a total farce. President of Ukraine is a Jew and right-wing extremist parties got just 2% of the vote in the last Ukrainian election, which was free and fair and saw an incumbent prez losing reelection by a huge margin.

Talks are clearly just for PR reasons and propaganda in their government-controlled media. "We wanted to negotiate, but evil NATO puppet Zelenskyy didn't move."

[pppolitics]

'Show this to Putin.' A 6-year-old girl killed by Russian shelling

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/europe/gallery/ukraine-girl-killed/index.html

[NewYorkExpress]

Wtf

https://mobile.twitter.com/SuperRADLemon/status/1498309235314151430

Funny. Who are the fans casting as Putin, just for my curiosity?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wtf

https://mobile.twitter.com/SuperRADLemon/status/1498309235314151430

Funny. Who are the fans casting as Putin, just for my curiosity?

On House of Cards he was (kind of) played by Lars Mikkelsen:

[NewYorkExpress]

Wtf

https://mobile.twitter.com/SuperRADLemon/status/1498309235314151430

Funny. Who are the fans casting as Putin, just for my curiosity?

On House of Cards he was (kind of) played by Lars Mikkelsen:

That's actually...an incredibly good likeness.

[jaichind]

Putin's counter sanction: Russians suspended from servicing foreign debt.   This allows Russia to use the foreign currencies it has for imports only. 

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Someone make a virgin vs. chad meme of him and Putin

https://mobile.twitter.com/ITarmyUA/status/1498325489202745346

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Less gooooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaximEristavi/status/1498328900035878919

[It’s so Joever]

Bastards did it

https://mobile.twitter.com/GicAriana/status/1498285954401980418

I hope Putler finds himself a convicted and imprisoned war criminal when this stuff is over.

That will only happen if we fight back. You understand this right?

[Sir Mohamed]

Wtf

https://mobile.twitter.com/SuperRADLemon/status/1498309235314151430

Funny. Who are the fans casting as Putin, just for my curiosity?

On House of Cards he was (kind of) played by Lars Mikkelsen:

LOL! Except that Mikkelsen is 6'3 and Putin is 5'6.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

From "unreliable" NEXTA again:


https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498316842888273928

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1498318222961094656
Putin still demanding Ukrainian surrender.

See the second article, that means disarm, regime change, and defacto integration into Russia

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Wtf

https://mobile.twitter.com/SuperRADLemon/status/1498309235314151430

Funny. Who are the fans casting as Putin, just for my curiosity?

On House of Cards he was (kind of) played by Lars Mikkelsen:

LOL! Except that Mikkelsen is 6'3 and Putin is 5'6.

Ole Boney was 5’6 too. What is it about that height?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Less gooooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaximEristavi/status/1498328900035878919

I doubt that Ukraine is meeting many of the EU's membership criteria which are usually stricter than those for the NATO - and I mean that with regards to pre-invasion Ukraine. For one thing, it probably would be the poorest EU member by far - and again, that's pre-invasion.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It looks like the EU, although perhaps not individual member states,  is going to avoid explicitly coordinating the procurement of more expensive pieces of kit.

https://mobile.twitter.com/suzannelynch1/status/1498313893038284802
My guess is that this means EU-funded SAMs (besides MANPADS) are also off the table, unless and until a larger military aid package is announced. However, a few countries have been throwing comparable sums’ worth of kit at Ukraine without EU compensation - see Lithuania delivering €350k’s worth of MANPADS in January. If the countries with MiG- and Su- planes in active service can’t get guarantees of Western replacements, they might be unwilling to part with many of their Ukranian-compatible jets.

[BlueSwan]

Less gooooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/UA_Emb_FI/status/1498332538972033031

He's overplaying his hand here. Obviously the EU cannot admit a member that is in the middle of a war. Also, even if there was no contested territories within Ukraine and no war, Ukraine still needs to solve a bunch of problems, such as massive corruption, before it could even be debated whether it should be a part of the EU. Finally, the EU has all but regretted admitting member states like Hungary and Poland - there isn't much appetite for admitting yet another country that really isn't a fully functioning democracy.

[It’s so Joever]

Putin NEEDS to be stopped. Are we seriously going to let Russia do whatever they want today because their madman is throwing a fit? The likes of JFK, Eisenhower, and even Reagan would be p**sed at how f**king weak American leadership is today.

As for Western European leadership…well I’m not even gonna start.