Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

Perhaps. Jordan is a  "moderate"  in the sense that he is a nonentity who has not taken part in the factional squabbles in the State Senate. Unfortunately, his effort to unite the Johnson CO GOP is going to be nuked by Phil Kline's run for DA. Kline is going to win a nasty primary, and then he is going to go down in flames in the general in a area he lost by 30 points two years ago.

Normally a local race would not have coattails in a Presidential year, but Kline is currently breaking the local party to pieces, and Jordan allowed himself to be sucked in on Kline's side earlier this year. It was probably a smart decision in the short run because opposing Kline might have triggered a far-right challenge, but it undid most of Jordan's moderate credentials. If Moore is smart he will make Kline's antics the issue, as Kline has become an enormously polarizing figure.

Ah... Phill Kline, a mesmerizingly charismatic public speaker who espouses views to the right of Sam Brownback's, whose mercurial career has yet to reach its eventual nadir.   Now Kline is trying to replace the Johnson County DA who replaced him as AG. I agree with your assessment of Kline's chance. Kline's presence on the ballot with hurt Jordan a little, but I doubt it will cost him the election. Voters know that Jordan is a "mod" and Kline is a"con," they'll distinguish between the two.

I expect Jordan to pull 45%-47% of the vote. If Jordan exceeds Kline's 2000 performance (which was before Kline went off the ideological deep end),  KS-03 will be one of the hottest races of the 2010 cycle. Moore may even retire if he barely wins in such a Democratic year.

2010 depends on who is elected President.  If its Obama, Moore could be in real trouble.  If its McCain, expect Moore's 2010 perecentage to increase. 

[MarkWarner08]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

Perhaps. Jordan is a  "moderate"  in the sense that he is a nonentity who has not taken part in the factional squabbles in the State Senate. Unfortunately, his effort to unite the Johnson CO GOP is going to be nuked by Phil Kline's run for DA. Kline is going to win a nasty primary, and then he is going to go down in flames in the general in a area he lost by 30 points two years ago.

Normally a local race would not have coattails in a Presidential year, but Kline is currently breaking the local party to pieces, and Jordan allowed himself to be sucked in on Kline's side earlier this year. It was probably a smart decision in the short run because opposing Kline might have triggered a far-right challenge, but it undid most of Jordan's moderate credentials. If Moore is smart he will make Kline's antics the issue, as Kline has become an enormously polarizing figure.

Ah... Phill Kline, a mesmerizingly charismatic public speaker who espouses views to the right of Sam Brownback's, whose mercurial career has yet to reach its eventual nadir.   Now Kline is trying to replace the Johnson County DA who replaced him as AG. I agree with your assessment of Kline's chance. Kline's presence on the ballot with hurt Jordan a little, but I doubt it will cost him the election. Voters know that Jordan is a "mod" and Kline is a"con," they'll distinguish between the two.

I expect Jordan to pull 45%-47% of the vote. If Jordan exceeds Kline's 2000 performance (which was before Kline went off the ideological deep end),  KS-03 will be one of the hottest races of the 2010 cycle. Moore may even retire if he barely wins in such a Democratic year.

2010 depends on who is elected President.  If its Obama, Moore could be in real trouble.  If its McCain, expect Moore's 2010 perecentage to increase. 

Exactly. As of right now, I expect Obama to win. Which is why I think Moore could be in trouble if Jordan wins >47%.

[Dan the Roman]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

Perhaps. Jordan is a  "moderate"  in the sense that he is a nonentity who has not taken part in the factional squabbles in the State Senate. Unfortunately, his effort to unite the Johnson CO GOP is going to be nuked by Phil Kline's run for DA. Kline is going to win a nasty primary, and then he is going to go down in flames in the general in a area he lost by 30 points two years ago.

Normally a local race would not have coattails in a Presidential year, but Kline is currently breaking the local party to pieces, and Jordan allowed himself to be sucked in on Kline's side earlier this year. It was probably a smart decision in the short run because opposing Kline might have triggered a far-right challenge, but it undid most of Jordan's moderate credentials. If Moore is smart he will make Kline's antics the issue, as Kline has become an enormously polarizing figure.

Ah... Phill Kline, a mesmerizingly charismatic public speaker who espouses views to the right of Sam Brownback's, whose mercurial career has yet to reach its eventual nadir.   Now Kline is trying to replace the Johnson County DA who replaced him as AG. I agree with your assessment of Kline's chance. Kline's presence on the ballot with hurt Jordan a little, but I doubt it will cost him the election. Voters know that Jordan is a "mod" and Kline is a"con," they'll distinguish between the two.

I expect Jordan to pull 45%-47% of the vote. If Jordan exceeds Kline's 2000 performance (which was before Kline went off the ideological deep end),  KS-03 will be one of the hottest races of the 2010 cycle. Moore may even retire if he barely wins in such a Democratic year.

Part of the problem with the Moderate-Conservative war in the Kansas GOP is that while it has ideological underpinnings, its not really so much ideological as personal. A political figure fails to back a candidate who is popular with the mods, and he is promptly labeled an enemy irregardless of voting record, and vice-versa for the Conservatives. Its a nasty game of tit for tat, and one in which Jordan's voting record will matter less in the minds of mods than his failure to back Steve Howe if Howe ends up losing the primary. If Howe wins it won't matter to the mods as much, but Conservatives will attack Jordan for being insufficiently pro-Kline. It is a lose-lose situation guaranteed to damage him either way.

That said, his support for Kline would be less damaging if he had stronger factional moderate creds. While he has a moderate ideological creds, he has never taken a leading role in the conflict until now, and this time he has come in on the Conservative side. Furthermore, knowing a bunch of them, I'm not convinced the mods even want to win back this seat. The annual fiasco in KS-03 has become a way for them avenge their powerlessness at the statewide level, and I am not convinced that they are willing to give it up, or if they are that they would be that disappointed if they lose. Taft was a "moderate" too, and when he finally got the nomination they did nothing for him. We will see.

[MarkWarner08]

One quick thought: In KY-02, the Democrat's fundraising has been abysmal. According to the buzz in the KY political blogosphere, his campaign is far behind where Mike Weaver's was at this point in the cycle. Of course, Weaver lost by 10% in the most favorable political climate to Democrats since 1974. Even the flush DCCC hasn't committed to spending there. Which is surprising because they're spending money in other long shot open seats like NM-02 and CA-04.

[Sam Spade]

One quick thought: In KY-02, the Democrat's fundraising has been abysmal. According to the buzz in the KY political blogosphere, his campaign is far behind where Mike Weaver's was at this point in the cycle. Of course, Weaver lost by 10% in the most favorable political climate to Democrats since 1974. Even the flush DCCC hasn't committed to spending there. Which is surprising because they're spending money in other long shot open seats like NM-02 and CA-04.

It's only that one poll.  I expect it to move lower on my list, frankly, and will probably do so.

[MarkWarner08]

One quick thought: In KY-02, the Democrat's fundraising has been abysmal. According to the buzz in the KY political blogosphere, his campaign is far behind where Mike Weaver's was at this point in the cycle. Of course, Weaver lost by 10% in the most favorable political climate to Democrats since 1974. Even the flush DCCC hasn't committed to spending there. Which is surprising because they're spending money in other long shot open seats like NM-02 and CA-04.

It's only that one poll.  I expect it to move lower on my list, frankly, and will probably do so.

Okay. I just mention this because I think it'll be hard for him to capitalize on a slight lead in a summer poll when he's down 10-1 in CoH.

Then again, that doesn't seem to matter to those who think Leonard Lance will win....
(MW08 crouches under a table as he waits for the Jersey Republicans to remind him that Lance is actually leading in the polls, and that Stender was tarred by over $2 million in "Stender is a Spender" ads.)

[Sam Spade]

Some minor changes.  Nothing big really, however.

[MarkWarner08]

Hmm... Why did you move MO-09 below MO-06? Have you bought into the "Baker is too LIBRUL to win in rural MO" buzz?

[Sam Spade]

Hmm... Why did you move MO-09 below MO-06? Have you bought into the "Baker is too LIBRUL to win in rural MO" buzz?

I moved it a tad too low after the primary before I read up on both candidates.  However, it still goes below Graves, sorry... 

[Sam Spade]

I should add - Luetkemeyer appears to be right type of Republican for this CD - socially conservative, economically not too conservative, more of an old-school fiscal conservative (CfG ran ads attacking him) - rural voters are dominant here.

[MarkWarner08]

I should add - Luetkemeyer appears to be right type of Republican for this CD - socially conservative, economically not too conservative, more of an old-school fiscal conservative (CfG ran ads attacking him) - rural voters are dominant here.

Yeah. The CfG bizarrely attacked him for opposing a gas tax holiday. Why would the CfG, which pretends to be a fiscally conservative group backed by leading economists, attack him for opposing an economically unsound idea?

[Dan the Roman]

I should add - Luetkemeyer appears to be right type of Republican for this CD - socially conservative, economically not too conservative, more of an old-school fiscal conservative (CfG ran ads attacking him) - rural voters are dominant here.

Yeah. The CfG bizarrely attacked him for opposing a gas tax holiday. Why would the CfG, which pretends to be a fiscally conservative group backed by leading economists, attack him for opposing an economically unsound idea?

Key word is "pretends".

[MarkWarner08]

The DCCC and the shadow NRCC (Freedom's Watch) are already battling on the airwaves.

DCCC hits Adelson's Freedom's Watch in radio ads
By Alex Isenstadt
Category: HouseTags: Freedom's Watch, DCCC

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm is announcing plans to air competing radio advertisements targeting Freedom’s Watch, the conservative advocacy group heavily funded by Las Vegas billionaire Sheldon Adelson.

The ads are set to begin airing Friday. A DCCC spokesperson did not provide information on the size of the ad buy.

“Democrats will not allow Freedom’s Watch to mislead voters,” said Jennifer Crider, a spokeswoman for the DCCC.

The announcement comes one day after Freedom’s Watch announced plans to launch radio and television advertisements targeting Democrats nationwide.

The DCCC’s radio advertisements will be airing in the ten congressional districts where Freedom’s Watch is airing radio ads of their own: Idaho’s First Congressional District, Louisiana’s Sixth Congressional District, Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, Missouri’s 6th Congressional District, New Hampshire’s First Congressional District, New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District, New York’s 29th Congressional District, Ohio’s 15th Congressional District, Ohio’s 16th Congressional District, and Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District.
http://www.politickernv.com/alexisenstadt/2178/dccc-hits-adelsons-freedoms-watch-radio-ads

[Sam Spade]

What is going to be the topic of these DCCC ads or are they not done yet?

[MarkWarner08]

What is going to be the topic of these DCCC ads or are they not done yet?

The DCCC's site says the ads will "respond" to the Freedom's Watch ads. Will the ads attack Freedom's Watch's shady billionaire backer Sheldon Adelson, who is connected to forced abortions in China? We should know in a day or two.

[Sam Spade]

What is going to be the topic of these DCCC ads or are they not done yet?

The DCCC's site says the ads will "respond" to the Freedom's Watch ads. Will the ads attack Freedom's Watch's shady billionaire backer Sheldon Adelson, who is connected to forced abortions in China? We should know in a day or two.

That would be stupid.  Does anyone outside of political websites know what Freedom's Watch is?

[MarkWarner08]

What is going to be the topic of these DCCC ads or are they not done yet?

The DCCC's site says the ads will "respond" to the Freedom's Watch ads. Will the ads attack Freedom's Watch's shady billionaire backer Sheldon Adelson, who is connected to forced abortions in China? We should know in a day or two.

That would be stupid.  Does anyone outside of political websites know what Freedom's Watch is?

Here's the possible ad: Have you heard the false, negative ads attacking Kay Barnes? The man  paying for those ads is a Las Vegas casino billionaire! Billionaire Sheldon Adelson has spent hundreds of millions  of dollars investing in Communist China, paying off the government and supporting forced abortions.  Dirty money, forced abortions, and lies about Kay Barnes. Is this all Sam Graves has left?

Paid for by the DCCC

[Sam Spade]

What is going to be the topic of these DCCC ads or are they not done yet?

The DCCC's site says the ads will "respond" to the Freedom's Watch ads. Will the ads attack Freedom's Watch's shady billionaire backer Sheldon Adelson, who is connected to forced abortions in China? We should know in a day or two.

That would be stupid.  Does anyone outside of political websites know what Freedom's Watch is?

Here's the possible ad: Have you heard the false, negative ads attacking Kay Barnes? The man  paying for those ads is a Las Vegas casino billionaire! Billionaire Sheldon Adelson has spent hundreds of millions  of dollars investing in Communist China, paying off the government and supporting forced abortions.  Dirty money, forced abortions, and lies about Kay Barnes. Is this all Sam Graves has left?

Paid for by the DCCC

The amusing thing is that those people who heard the negative ads are probably unlikely to the rebuttal - which would make the ad even more confusing than otherwise.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Here's the possible ad: Have you heard the false, negative ads attacking Kay Barnes? The man  paying for those ads is a Las Vegas casino billionaire! Billionaire Sheldon Adelson has spent hundreds of millions  of dollars investing in Communist China, paying off the government and supporting forced abortions.  Dirty money, forced abortions, and lies about Kay Barnes. Is this all Sam Graves has left?

Paid for by the DCCC

Kay Barnes, a pro-choice Democrat running in a culturally conservative Missouri district, should accuse her opponent of being weakly tied to someone being unbelievably accused of supporting "forced abortions"?

Really, make this campaign about abortion?  Do you want Barnes to have any shot of winning at all?

[MarkWarner08]

Here's the possible ad: Have you heard the false, negative ads attacking Kay Barnes? The man  paying for those ads is a Las Vegas casino billionaire! Billionaire Sheldon Adelson has spent hundreds of millions  of dollars investing in Communist China, paying off the government and supporting forced abortions.  Dirty money, forced abortions, and lies about Kay Barnes. Is this all Sam Graves has left?

Paid for by the DCCC

Kay Barnes, a pro-choice Democrat running in a culturally conservative Missouri district, should accuse her opponent of being weakly tied to someone being unbelievably accused of supporting "forced abortions"?

Really, make this campaign about abortion?  Do you want Barnes to have any shot of winning at all?

I'm a disinterested observer of MO-06. If I were an uninterested observer, I could be a Packers nut watching re-runs of Brett Favre's last game at Lambeau.

The ad script is similar to the ad the D-trip ran in MS-01 agaisnt Davis. Considering Barnes' pro-abortion rights views, they might tone down that part of the ad.

[MarkWarner08]

The DCCC is up with their response ads:
http://www.dccc.org/page/invite/bigoil?source=081108_jc

As Mr. Moderate predicted, they don't mention Freedom's Watch.

[Lunar]

How close is that to your guess, Sam?

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=28

[Sam Spade]

Made some changes to the Senate list.  Will try to update the House tomorrow.

NM is odd in that the NRSC has pulled out, but I personally suspect Rasmussen is right on where the race stands.

[KeyKeeper]

I think its time you add NC to Toss-up.

[Sam Spade]

I think its time you add NC to Toss-up.

I haven't had a chance to update this in a while (esp. House).  Give me some time.