How long until Florida and Texas go solidly Democratic?

[pbrower2a]

Despite its far-from-central geographic position, Florida may be the state closest to being a microcosm of America. It has been close in all four of the most recent elections. It might be solid in a blowout, but that means little. It has an ethnic mix similar to that of the US as a whole. It has some large urban areas and some influential rural interests. So it grows oranges instead of potatoes -- big deal!

Texas was reliably Democratic in close elections until 1980, actually going with Humphrey in 1968.

The real question is whether coalitions change. Just think of this: in 2012 Barack Obama (D) did not win any state that Adlai Stevenson (D) ever won, and in 2008 he won only one such state (North Carolina, and just barely) that Adlai Stevenson ever won. On the other side, Dwight Eisenhower won Massachusetts and Minnesota together, which no Republican has achieved since 1969 -- and Ike did that twice.