Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh... it seems the person tasked with overseeing the obviously politically motivated, yet supposedly independent, Royal Commission into Trade Unions was the guest speaker at the Sir Garfield Barwick Address. The Barwick Address is a fundraising event for the NSW Liberal Party.

He withdrew this morning, the apologists are stating that he didn't know what it was, but his name's been attached to the event since April.

How utterly stupid must you be?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ipsos - Fairfax

Primaries
Coalition: 38% (-1)
ALP: 36% (+1)
Greens: 16% (nc)

TPP (2013 Preference flows)
Coalition: 46% (-1)
ALP: 54% (+1)

TPP (Respondent allocated)
Coalition: 44% (-3)
ALP: 56% (+3)

Satisfaction
Abbott: 35% (-1)
Shorten: 39% (+4)

Dissatisfaction
Abbott: 59% (nc)
Shorten: 49% (-6)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It will be entertaining. I'd be surprised if the swing is there, but it'll be at least 6-8%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll out for Canning

Libs up 51-49, that would be a 10.8% swing, Abbott has a 4% lead over Shorten in the seat as preferred PM (36-32).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.afr.com/news/politics/leadership-talk-starts-to-hit-liberals-20150816-gj0fmx

Make of this what you want

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Joe Hockey is setting up a Parliamentary Friendship Group with Labor's Katy Gallagher about the push for an Australian Republic.

Very interesting to see Hockey make such a public push for this now, but also encouraging from the point of view of the republican movement and the momentum that its been trying to build as of late.

I was discussing this with my dad (who used to be a Labor supporter, hasn't been a fan of any party since around 2005) earlier today, and he thinks Hockey's push might be a prelude to a leadership move, post-Canning by-election.

Thoughts?

No. I think it's smart for him to try to present some other side to himself, but this is more about overall image rehabilitation. But it's interesting that Hockey is talking about everything that isn't about the economy and jobs is a distraction aaaaand he decides to make a big deal about something that is at best, a fourth-order political issue that is about as far away from being one of national importance as you can think.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Joe Hockey is setting up a Parliamentary Friendship Group with Labor's Katy Gallagher about the push for an Australian Republic.

Very interesting to see Hockey make such a public push for this now, but also encouraging from the point of view of the republican movement and the momentum that its been trying to build as of late.

Disgusting. Hope he's sacked.

It's harmless - it's a non-issue. This isn't 20 years ago.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Joe Hockey is setting up a Parliamentary Friendship Group with Labor's Katy Gallagher about the push for an Australian Republic.

Very interesting to see Hockey make such a public push for this now, but also encouraging from the point of view of the republican movement and the momentum that its been trying to build as of late.

Disgusting. Hope he's sacked.

...Most (or at least a strong minority) of high-profile Liberals are republicans, including Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull. This was the case in the Howard years too, with individuals like Peter Costello being self-professed Republicans.

Unfortunately it seems like it'll be a very long time before a republic comes into being.

Well Shorten is trying to fire up the energy within Labor again.

I think it will be within the next decade.

I think 20

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The gift that keeps on giving... and this one you can't immediately blame on Captain CockUp (although the chest-thumping BS is all from him).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Denis Napthine is stepping down from the Victorian Parliament.

Yeah, it's going to be an interesting by-election me thinks.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tony Windsor is getting ready to contest New England against Barnaby. Windsor knows the vibe of his electorate better than anyone. This is going to be deeply entertaining.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It certainly feels like the wheels are coming off the donkey cart again.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This could well be a deeply entertaining week.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There is some speculation that Turnbull backers want to launch the challenge before the by-election, although my instinct would think that's premature.

However, after this week the Parliament does not sit for another three weeks. Would the Liberals need to wait that long to have a leadership spill, or can an emergency meeting be called in-between parliamentary sittings?

The timing is the issue here. It's a calculated risk, to a significant degree. If they think a shift to Turnbull would save some embarrassment and mitigate the swing in Canning (as well as the perceived other benefits)... worth the risk of looking chaotic.
 
The timing of a special party meeting is the prerogative of the leader. If Abbott wants more time to work the numbers and his support, then he's completely within his rights to not hold a special meeting (claiming the cost to the taxpayers of bringing everyone in was not worth it) and say that it can surely wait. Noting the way he handled the February spill motion - some people argued that Abbott should have declared the leadership vacant and called the spill himself, rather than forcing them to bring it on and therefore weakening him as his actual position wasn't actually tested.

I feel he would have equal magnanimity in this situation. He would force those who wish to take him on to do what he did in 2009, resign from the front-bench, show their cards, then call for the spill. Part of his calculations would be exactly what you're suggesting... this week is probably too soon but, as has in the past, will the momentum abate once Canning is over with?

Also, don't forget that the rumours running around town that Abbott may pull a Newman and call an early-election after Canning, before those around him can push him off the cliff. The point about this scenario is that it is being considered as something that could legitimately happen. That's the other element driving the idea of a spill this week. To ensure that Abbott doesn't force them over the cliff with him, a la Newman.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There are two DD triggers.

The issue about mindset is important. It's incredibly clear that they bought their own spin. They seemed to believe that the economy would improve just because of their election and that that the carbon and mining taxes really were a break on the economy ... despite one actually working and the other so ineffective it didn't matter.

Abbott thinks he's the natural heir to Howard, hence his view that he can also come from behind and win like Howard did. Forgetting that Howard knew both how to take advantage of opportunities and how to maneuver to get Labor to make errors. Abbott is a crash-though type, not a political strategist.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's happened.

Turnbull has resigned and requested a ballot.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And he's challenging. He's attacked Abbott leadership, his 'captain's calls' and interestingly, his Cabinet decision making.

It was a pretty aggressive set of comments.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So when is the next time Australia will have a Prime Minister that serves an entire term with-out being toppled in an internal leadership election?

Time is a strange beast

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ballot will be tonight.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hockey going to bat for Abbott and calling out Turnbull.

No matter how you shape it, this is going to get bloody.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Morrison has confirmed that he will support Abbott.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Dutton won't be standing for Deputy.

Yeah, this has the feeling of a close one.  December 2009, anyone?

It will be close. Turnbull people are less confident, but expecting 60-40.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Truss speaking right now. Don't the Nationals think Malcolm is a massive tosspot?

It doesn't matter. The Liberals are the Nationals' life-support system. Completely empty.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And we have a new Prime Minister.

I think that's as good a time as any to start a new thread after 95-odd pages.