Irish Election Results Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: Irish Election Results Thread  (Read 49340 times)
Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« on: February 26, 2011, 10:24:39 AM »
Quote from: The Goy's Teeth on February 26, 2011, 10:11:44 AM
Quote from: Verily on February 26, 2011, 10:05:57 AM
Definitely 2 Lab, 2 FG in Dublin Mid-West. The second Lab candidate is not all that far ahead of the FF and SF candidates (who are almost exactly tied), but there are more transfers in the bucket for Lab than for FF or for SF--unless FF and SF transfer strongly to one another, which seems unlikely to me.

A large part of the remaining transfers will come from the far left so I wouldn´t rule out an SF seat yet. Alot might depend on where FF transfers go and in reality, nobody really has a clue where those will go. Also LOL@Gogarty.

Yeah, Gogarty's vote imploded.

FF's transfers will decide this. One presumes they'll favour Labour over SF.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2011, 10:27:49 AM »
Quote from: Verily on February 26, 2011, 09:59:21 AM
Full Dublin West first preferences:

Burton (Lab) - 9627 (22.7%) Elected
Varadkar (FG) - 8359 (19.7%)
Higgins (Soc) - 8084 (19.0%)
Lenihan (FF) - 6421 (15.1%)
Denison (FG) - 3190 (7.5%)
Nulty (Lab) - 2686 (6.3%)
Donnelly (SF) - 2597 (6.1%)
McGuinness (FF) - 623 (1.5%)
O'Gorman (Grn) - 605 (1.4%)
Esebamen (Ind) - 280 (0.7%)

Look like 1 Lab, 1 FG, 1 Soc, 1 FF unless anti-FF transfers are very, very strong, in which case the last seat could go to FG or Lab.

Only Labour have a shot here. SF's tarnsfers will put Nulty well ahead of Denison.
I imagine it can be run close, but yes Lenihan looks like he will get that last seat.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2011, 10:34:36 AM »
« Edited: February 26, 2011, 10:39:29 AM by Јas »
Quote from: Verily on February 26, 2011, 10:27:31 AM
Longford-Westmeath first count

Willie Penrose 19.9%
James Bannon 15.9%
Peter Burke 11.6%
Nicky McFadden 10.8%
Paul Hogan 7.5%
Robert Troy 7.3%
Mae Sexton 6.8%
Peter Kelly 6.7%
Mary O'Rourke 5.4%
Siobhan Kinahan 0.5%
Others 7.7%

Not sure on parties for some of those candidates, though.

19.4% for FF here - just short of a quota, but having it split between 3 means they would really be very hard pressed to win it.

Decent FG vote split (they're 2nd, 3rd and 4th) - not sure if they'll be able to hold those spots though.

Labour top the poll, but a better vote split could've put 2 seats in contention.

EDIT: This is a final tally, rather than a first count btw.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2011, 10:38:51 AM »
Quote from: The Goy's Teeth on February 26, 2011, 10:33:40 AM
Quote from: Јas on February 26, 2011, 10:24:39 AM
Quote from: The Goy's Teeth on February 26, 2011, 10:11:44 AM
Quote from: Verily on February 26, 2011, 10:05:57 AM
Definitely 2 Lab, 2 FG in Dublin Mid-West. The second Lab candidate is not all that far ahead of the FF and SF candidates (who are almost exactly tied), but there are more transfers in the bucket for Lab than for FF or for SF--unless FF and SF transfer strongly to one another, which seems unlikely to me.

A large part of the remaining transfers will come from the far left so I wouldn´t rule out an SF seat yet. Alot might depend on where FF transfers go and in reality, nobody really has a clue where those will go. Also LOL@Gogarty.

Yeah, Gogarty's vote imploded.

FF's transfers will decide this. One presumes they'll favour Labour over SF.

But SF over FG? 1FG 2LAB 1SF *is* possible however at this point I will say that 2FG 2LAB is the most likely outcome.

Fair point. To do that Ó Bróin will probably need to do fairly well from those PBP votes.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2011, 10:45:08 AM »
Results Table

Labour2(+1: Rabbitte, Dublin SW)
Fianna Fáil1
Fine Gael0
Sinn Féin0
United Left0
Greens0
Independents  0
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2011, 10:48:49 AM »

Yep, anything else would be quite surprising.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2011, 10:57:08 AM »
Can't rule out FF in Dublin N just yet, I'd venture.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2011, 11:01:53 AM »
Results Table

Labour2
Fianna Fáil1
Fine Gael1(+1: Varadkar, Dublin W)
Sinn Féin0
United Left0
Greens0
Independents  0
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2011, 11:05:23 AM »
Results Table

Labour3(+1: Wall, Kildare S)
Fine Gael2(+1: Heydon, Kildare S)
Fianna Fáil1
Sinn Féin0
United Left0
Greens0
Independents  0
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2011, 11:20:01 AM »
Results Table

Labour4(+1: Gilmore, Dún Laoighaire)
Fianna Fáil1
Fine Gael1
Sinn Féin0
United Left0
Greens0
Independents  0
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2011, 11:27:31 AM »
Quote from: The Goy's Teeth on February 26, 2011, 11:24:50 AM
Looking at the Dun Laoghaire results it looks quite plausable that Mary Hannafin (FF) will manage to hold on after all though that might depend on where exactly Cuffe´s vote (and those of those random INDs) go.

Possibly, but surely it's more likely that Boyd-Barrett or Bacik will take the last seat?
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2011, 11:30:03 AM »
« Edited: February 26, 2011, 11:35:09 AM by Јas »
Results Table

Labour4
Fine Gael3(+1: O'Reilly, Dublin N)
Fianna Fáil1
Sinn Féin0
United Left0
Greens0
Independents  0

With the Dublin N declaration, goes any real hope of a Green being returned I presume.
I still think a FF seat is possible (just) there, though admittedly unlikely.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2011, 11:33:20 AM »
Results Table

Labour4
Fine Gael3
Fianna Fáil1
Independents  1(+1: Ross, Dublin S)
Sinn Féin0
United Left0
Greens0

Outstanding result for Ross.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2011, 12:04:52 PM »
TV3's guestimate of overall result:

76 FG
36 Lab
17 FF
16 SF
  1 Green
18 Ind/Others
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2011, 12:10:07 PM »
Results Table

Fine Gael5
(+2: Hayes, Dublin SW; Noonan, Limerick City)
Labour4
Fianna Fáil1
United Left1(+1: Higgins, Dublin W)
Independents  1
Sinn Féin0
Greens0
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2011, 12:15:16 PM »
Quote from: The Goy's Teeth on February 26, 2011, 12:12:34 PM
Quote from: Hashpipe on February 26, 2011, 12:11:53 PM
What happens with Higgins' MEP seat?

He has a registered replacement though I can´t quite remember who it is.

I think Clare Daly, who looks like being elected in Dublin N, was his first stated replacement.
IIRC, Mick Barry, running in Cork NC, was the second stated replacement.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2011, 12:16:30 PM »
Results Table

Fine Gael6
(+1: Durkan, Kildare N)
Labour4
Independents  2
(+1: Wallace, Wexford)
Fianna Fáil1
United Left1
Sinn Féin0
Greens0
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2011, 12:30:34 PM »
Results Table

Fine Gael6
Labour4
Independents  2
Fianna Fáil1
Sinn Féin1(+1: Doherty, Donegal SW)
United Left1
Greens0

Massive vote for Doherty in Donegal SW.
Tánaiste Mary Coughlan will likely end up in a fight with independent Thomas Pringle for that last seat.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2011, 12:37:49 PM »
SF could have been not unreasonably placed to take 2 in Donegal SW given Doherty's vote.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2011, 12:50:09 PM »
Galway East

Count 1
Paul Connaughton  7,264    12.25%   
Ciaran Cannon        6,924    11.67%   
Michael Kitt             6,604    11.13%        
Tom McHugh          5,833    9.83%   
Sean Canney         5,567    9.38%           
Jimmy McClearn       5,392    9.09%   
Tim Broderick          5,146    8.68%          
Colm Keaveney       4,261    7.18% 
Michael F Dolan       4,107    6.92%         
Dermot Connolly     3,641    6.14%   
Lorraine Higgins      3,577    6.03%          
Emer O'Donnell        601    1.01%   
Ciaran Kennedy        402    0.68%   

Kudos to whomever can correctly figure out the 4 who'll be elected here.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2011, 12:57:42 PM »
Results Table

Fine Gael6
Labour5(+1: Tuffy, Dublin MW)
United Left2(+1: Healy, Tipp S)
Independents  2
Fianna Fáil1
Sinn Féin1
Greens0
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2011, 01:00:10 PM »
Quote from: a better-informed voter than heretofore on February 26, 2011, 12:51:41 PM
Connaughton, Kitt, one or possibly two of the other FG candidates, probably one of the two high polling indies.

You only asked for "correct". You didn't ask for "precise".

Tongue
Technically, I suppose I was really looking for accuracy rather than precision.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2011, 01:05:12 PM »
Galway West the first constituency to go to a recount.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2011, 01:09:37 PM »
Results Table

Fine Gael6
Labour5
Independents  3(+1: Lowry, Tipp N)
United Left2
Fianna Fáil1
Sinn Féin1
Greens0
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2011, 01:13:26 PM »
Quote from: a better-informed voter than heretofore on February 26, 2011, 01:12:07 PM
Where are you getting that? RTE doesn't have that one yet - but it has Emmet Stagg (what a beautiful name that is) in Kildare N.

http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/dublin-mid-west.html
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