Clinton should definitely get over 40% of the vote in Texas. The recent Democratic limit in Texas in Presidential races has been 43%. Dukakis got 43.35% in 1988 and Bill Clinton got 43.83% in 1996. If Clinton could reach over the 43% threshold, it would be impressive - considering that 43% of Texas approve of her in the poll - it might not be impossible?
And also, the last few elections except 1996 featured a Texan on the Republican ticket, which might have made the Republicans stronger than normal. Clinton got 43% in 1996 when there were no Texans on either ticket (not counting Perot), and Dukakis got 43 % with a running mate from Texas. So Clinton might get 43% or more in Texas next year if the Republican nominee doesn't pick a running mate from there.
