Few people know that for a long time, Hesse was the SPD stronghold in the whole of Western Germany, at times when even North-Rhine-Westphalia was still CDU-dominated. To some extent, this tendency has survived until today. In particular, compared to other states, the Hesse SPD is relatively strong in some rural areas.
Now, the 23% result was a consequence of the Ypsilanti scandal and the general federal trend in 2009. Since Schäfer-Gümbel has set things straight inside the party, I'd certainly expect a stronger result this time. 33% however would be huge. In the nationwide polls, the SPD is (again) where it started, around 23%. So, to really achieve 33%, the Hesse SPD would have to get almost 50% more votes than Steinbrück and the national party. This is hardly believable, especially considering that state and federal election will take place on the same day.
I feel like that says more about how low the federal SDP has sunk instead of how much the state party has improved.
