2013 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

I'll go ahead and start the new thread. As we're already getting lots of opinion polls for the relevant elections.

Schedule:

20 January: Niedersachsen Landtagswahl (Lower Saxony STATE)
26 May: Schleswig-Holstein Kommunalwahlen (S-H LOCAL)
15 September: Bayern Landtagswahl (Bavaria STATE)
22 September: Bundestagswahl (German Federal Parliamentary Election)
before or on 15 December: Hessen Landtagswahl (Hesse STATE)

[Franzl]

15.12.2012, GMS, Bavarian State Election:

CSU 49
SPD 22
Grüne 10
FW 8

FDP 4
Piraten 4


CSU absolute majority (49-40)

[Franzl]

16.12.2012, Infratest dimap, NRW State Election:

SPD 40
CDU 32
Grüne 12
FDP 5

Piraten 4
Linke 4


SPD/Green easily retains majority (52-37).

[Franzl]

Two federal polls as well!

16.12.2012, Emnid, Bundestag:

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 28
Grüne 14
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 4

Red-Green with no majority (42-47).



17.12.2012, GMS, Bundestag:

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 29
Grüne 14
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3
FW 1

Red-Green with no majority (43-47).

[Franzl]

Since it wasn't answered in  the old thread:

Is there any chance Linke-supporters could be convinced to support SDP or the Greens in order to stop a Grand Coalition?

Sorry. Meant to answer that.

I tend to doubt it. When you have the Left down to 7% or so, like now, you've really only got pretty die-hard supporters left. An overwhelming difference between the East and the West as well. The protest votes from Western states have largely gone back to other left-of-center parties since 2009.

Red-Green's only real chance would be for: a.) the FDP gets thrown out + b.) Steinbrück can lure some CDU voters into supporting him.

IMO:

[Franzl]

19.12.2012, Forsa, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 38
SPD 27
Grüne 14
Linke 8
FDP 5

Piraten 3


First time in a while that the FDP has been at 5%.

Red-Green with no majority. (41-51); Black-Yellow with no majority. (43-49)

Particularly amusing that the governing coalition is actually 2% ahead of red-green.

[Franzl]

Wish the Pirates would eff off.

They have pretty much. I wouldn't assume that the remaining 3% would automatically go to SPD or Greens.

[Franzl]

I know they won't join a red-green coalition, but surely Linke could be convinced to give red-green confidence and supply, right?

Definitely. But I doubt the SPD will allow that situation.

[Franzl]

20.12.2012, Allensbach/FAZ, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 37,5
SPD 30
GRüne 14
Linke 6,5

FDP 4,5
Piraten 3,5

SPD/Green almost at majority (44-44).

[Franzl]

21.12.2012, Infratest/dimap, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 30
Grüne 13
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD/Green with no majority (43-47).

[Franzl]

23.12.2012, Emnid, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 28
Grüne 13
Linke 8

FDP 4
Piraten 4
others 3

SPD-Green with no majority (41-48).

[Franzl]

All roads lead to Merkel. Wasn't a Black-Green coalition also being mooted a while back too? Though obviously most likely is still a Grand with the remaining FDP tacked on.

It's certainly not impossible, but I wouldn't bet on black-green.

[Franzl]

It's either CDU+FDP, CDU+SPD, or SPD+Greens.... with CDU+SPD being the most likely outcome at this point.

Forget about CDU+Greens, SPD+Greens+FDP, SPD+Greens+Left or any other wishful thinking-type coalition.

Probabilities at this point, if you ask me:

CDU/SPD 65%
SPD/Green 20%
SPD/CDU 10%
other (the likliest being CDU/Green) 5%

[Franzl]

I dunno, I have trouble seeing the Union actually stay at 40%. I think Steinbrück can only go up with swing voters (not that there are many in Germany) at the moment.

I don't doubt the FDP will make it back into the Bundestag. Actually, I think it's very likely...but the left-wing would really have to implode for the current government to be re-elected...

[Franzl]

26.12.2012, Forsa, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 41
SPD 27
Grüne 13
Linke 8

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD-Green with no majority (40-49).

If the FDP were 1% higher, black-yellow would almost be re-elected (46-48).

[Franzl]

Wait, why are they having another election in Berlin so early?

They aren't.

[Franzl]

Why is Linke below the 5% threshold?

Because Niedersachsen is in the west.

When the party is polling 7% nationally, that's to be expected.

[Franzl]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Linke, FDP and Pirates all ended up right under 5%?

A CDU absolute majority is possible with that scenario...

[Franzl]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Linke, FDP and Pirates all ended up right under 5%?

A CDU absolute majority is possible with that scenario...

I'd actually prefer that, by far, to another black-yellow coalition.

Well yes, of course.

[Franzl]

Having read up on the FDP, and rather liked it, what exactly would Bruederle do as chairman of the party? Would polling numbers rise with a new leader (permanently, with a bump?) or are they likely to remain basically where they are now regardless of who leads the FDP? It would certainly be quite remarkable if they went from their best-ever performance in 2009 to their worst-ever performance (though Kadima is set to do just that, on the other hand...)

I think the FDP will likely get 5-6% in September. I don't think the leader is particularly relevant, the FDP brand is just toxic at the moment.

[Franzl]

Having read up on the FDP, and rather liked it, what exactly would Bruederle do as chairman of the party? Would polling numbers rise with a new leader (permanently, with a bump?) or are they likely to remain basically where they are now regardless of who leads the FDP? It would certainly be quite remarkable if they went from their best-ever performance in 2009 to their worst-ever performance (though Kadima is set to do just that, on the other hand...)

I think the FDP will likely get 5-6% in September. I don't think the leader is particularly relevant, the FDP brand is just toxic at the moment.

Could you explain why? I was under the impression the Merkel government (certainly Merkel herself) is quite popular. Of course I don't know much about German politics.

Merkel is personally popular, but that's it. The government is pretty strongly disliked.

The FDP has made a fool of themselves for the last 4 years and is perceived to be a corrupt and incompetent group entirely driven by special interests. (See hotel tax affair)

Literally their only well known policy is pushing for unrealistic, impossible tax cuts, and even that has bewn unsuccesful for them.

[Franzl]

http://m.thelocal.de/politics/20100116-24621.html

This was kind of the start of their crash.

[Franzl]

Emnid, 06.01.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD 27%
Grüne 14%
Linke 8%

FDP 4%
Piraten 4%
sonstige 3%

Red-Green with no majority (41-49).

[Franzl]

It's really time for the CSU to experience the opposition bench.

Won't happen, but Ude would be a good Ministerpräsident.

[Franzl]

Where are Freie Wahler on the left-right spectrum?

Basically center-rights that don't like the CSU. They've declared their support for a SPD-Green-FW coalition.