Gravis - National GOP (after debate): Trump 33% Carson 23% Rubio 15% Cruz 8%

[Senator Cris]

http://www.oann.com/gopdebate/

[RI]

Change from pre-debate poll (which seemed a bit high for the minor candidates):

Rubio +3.8
Paul +2.8
Cruz +1.7
Christie +1.1
Carson +0.9
Fiorina +0.4
Jindal +0.1
Pataki 0.0
Kasich -0.5
Graham -1.1
Santorum -1.1
Huckabee -2.1
Trump -2.9
Bush -3.3

I'm a bit skeptical about some of these. What's with Paul? Huckabee? Graham? Santorum? Trump?

[JonathanSwift]

Change from pre-debate poll (which seemed a bit high for the minor candidates):

Rubio +3.8
Paul +2.8
Cruz +1.7
Christie +1.1
Carson +0.9
Fiorina +0.4
Jindal +0.1
Pataki 0.0
Kasich -0.5
Graham -1.1
Santorum -1.1
Huckabee -2.1
Trump -2.9
Bush -3.3

I'm a bit skeptical about some of these. What's with Paul? Huckabee? Graham? Santorum? Trump?

Well, the margin of error is ±2.5%, so most of these changes aren't really significant enough to draw any conclusions from.

[A Perez]

Trump personally visited the network that owns Gravis yesterday.   https://twitter.com/mikedinow/status/659569693984886784

[weixiaobao]

I will wait for a later Gravis poll.  Their one day after poll tend to be pretty bad.  Beside I don't think Cruz is that low and Carson is that high.  Carson should fall below 20% in my estimation.

[eric82oslo]

I will wait for a later Gravis poll.  Their one day after poll tend to be pretty bad.  Beside I don't think Cruz is that low and Carson is that high.  Carson should fall below 20% in my estimation.

Agree on Cruz, and I also think that Paul is much lower than this, and Huckabee probably a little bit higher. Trump is also below 30%.

[IceSpear]

Didn't Gravis' 1-day-after poll of the Democratic debate show Chaffee and Webb making significant jumps?  Their normal polls aren't the best and their day-after-debate polls should probably just be thrown in the dumpster regardless of how they look.

They had Webb at 12%. LMAO

Toss it in the garbage.

[eric82oslo]

Didn't Gravis' 1-day-after poll of the Democratic debate show Chaffee and Webb making significant jumps?  Their normal polls aren't the best and their day-after-debate polls should probably just be thrown in the dumpster regardless of how they look.

They had Webb at 12%. LMAO

Toss it in the garbage.

I think all of those 12% came from severely conservative Republicans pretending to be Democrats for the lolz of it.

[weixiaobao]

I will wait for a later Gravis poll.  Their one day after poll tend to be pretty bad.  Beside I don't think Cruz is that low and Carson is that high.  Carson should fall below 20% in my estimation.

Agree on Cruz, and I also think that Paul is much lower than this, and Huckabee probably a little bit higher. Trump is also below 30%.

Giving Gravis's record #s on Trump.  I do not believe he will go down below 30%.

Of course, outside of that flash poll of Trump 22 Fiorina 22.

[Likely Voter]

Online polls are dubious, Gravis polls are dubious even amongst other online polls, Gravis snap post debate polls are dubious even for regular Gravis polls

[Mr. Morden]

Online polls are dubious, Gravis polls are dubious even amongst other online polls, Gravis snap post debate polls are dubious even for regular Gravis polls

I thought Gravis was a robo-pollster, like PPP and Rasmussen.  Not an online poll.

Anyway, I know the poll is junk, but just for fun, if we got two live interview polls between now and Wednesday with the same results as this, I believe it would mean that, once you average it in with the other polls, but Christie and Kasich would be sent to the kiddie table for the next debate.

[eric82oslo]

Online polls are dubious, Gravis polls are dubious even amongst other online polls, Gravis snap post debate polls are dubious even for regular Gravis polls

I thought Gravis was a robo-pollster, like PPP and Rasmussen.  Not an online poll.

Anyway, I know the poll is junk, but just for fun, if we got two live interview polls between now and Wednesday with the same results as this, I believe it would mean that, once you average it in with the other polls, but Christie and Kasich would be sent to the kiddie table for the next debate.

More like Huckabee would.

[Likely Voter]

Online polls are dubious, Gravis polls are dubious even amongst other online polls, Gravis snap post debate polls are dubious even for regular Gravis polls

I thought Gravis was a robo-pollster, like PPP and Rasmussen.  Not an online poll.

Anyway, I know the poll is junk, but just for fun, if we got two live interview polls between now and Wednesday with the same results as this, I believe it would mean that, once you average it in with the other polls, but Christie and Kasich would be sent to the kiddie table for the next debate.

Indeed, I should have said 'automated' not 'online'. The Gravis polls have tended to show the same Trump effect as the online polls. And so far the Gravis post-debate polls have been especially divergent from other polls, especially live interview polls.

As for qualifying for the next debate, Christie is hoping there are at least two new polls and hopefully four new polls before the cutoff (assuming he can average around 3% in the new polls). As for Kasich his best scenario would be for only one new poll as the fourth oldest poll currently has him at 1% so he probably wont be any worse off, but if there were four new polls, he probably wont make the 2.5%.  And I wouldn't be so sure that Paul, Huckabee and Fiorina would all average 2.5% either.

[Mr. Morden]

As for Kasich his best scenario would be for only one new poll as the fourth oldest poll currently has him at 1% so he probably wont be any worse off, but if there were four new polls, he probably wont make the 2.5%.

What do you mean by the “fourth oldest”?  Isn’t there a 3-way tie for second oldest amongst ABC/WaPo, NBC/WSJ, and Monmouth?  They were all taken Oct. 15-18.  So I’m wondering what happens if we get just one or two new polls.  How do they determine the “four most recent” if there’s a 3-way tie like that?  Average all of them together with the two new polls, and have a 6 poll average?

[Likely Voter]

I just looked at the fourth listed down on RCP but I now see they have the same date range so that does indeed put FNB in a pickle if there is only one or two new polls released. Maybe they could use a randomizer to pick, or average the three, or pick one by some other metric (maybe by sample size?). I'm sure they are hoping there will be at least 3 new polls. I suspect Fox will have a new one. Looking at the age of other polls, Bloomberg, Quinnipiac and USA Today could all be due for new polls. Maybe even CNN, they have done polls within 2 or 3 weeks before.

[Mr. Morden]

I realize that these numbers may be obsolete if the post-debate polling changes things, but out of curiosity, I compiled all of the national and state polls for which the majority of the sample comes from Oct. 20 or later (an arbitrary cutoff meant to capture Carson’s recent momentum).  Here’s the margin between Carson and Trump in all of those polls:

CBS/NYT national (Oct. 21-25): Carson +4
Morning Consult national (Oct. 22-25): Trump +15
Gravis national (Oct. 26): Trump +14
YouGov/Economist national (Oct. 23-27): Trump +14
Ipsos/Reuters national (Oct. 24-28): Trump +2
Gravis national (post-debate): Trump +10

Loras College IA (Oct. 19-22): Carson +12
Monmouth IA (Oct. 22-25): Carson +14

PPP NC (Oct. 23-25): Trump +8

Cole Hargrave Snodgrass OK (Oct. 19-22): Carson +6

Franklin & Marshall College PA (Oct. 19-25): Trump +1

Dixie Strategies TX (Oct. 23-24): Carson +1

So in none of the recent state polls is Trump ahead anywhere by double digits.  (He was ahead by that much in the most recent NH polls, but those are more than a week old now, not covered by the timeframe I’m looking at.)  Maybe the state polls are wrong, or maybe those are just some especially Carson-friendly states.  Otherwise, it would argue towards the national polls with Trump up by double digits being wrong.

[Mr. Morden]

Looking at the age of other polls, Bloomberg, Quinnipiac and USA Today could all be due for new polls. Maybe even CNN, they have done polls within 2 or 3 weeks before.

How many of those would come out by the Wednesday deadline though?  Presumably, they would want their polling period to come entirely after this past debate, which means that they'd be in the field this weekend.  The last time Bloomberg and Quinnipiac did national polls, they polled over the weekend, but then they didn't release the numbers until Thursday morning.  In the case of Suffolk/USA Today though, they released it on Wednesday morning.

[Former Democrat]

http://www.oann.com/post-debate-poll-shows-trump-rubio-and-cruz-are-the-top-three-debate-winners/