VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[erſatz-york]

With the polling we've seen regarding public opinion on both Trump's response to the events in Charlottesville and the debate regarding the removal of Confederate statues, I'm not sure that Gillespie is harmed by this.

A plurality (49%) of Americans either agree with Trump's assessment of the violence in Charlottesville or are to his right.

Trump's approval rating has increased since the events in Charlottesville.

Anywhere from a plurality-near-majority to three-fifths of Americans disapprove of removing Confederate statues, while Americans are almost united in their disdain for white nationalism and the KKK.

Regarding the first poll, 40% of Americans agreed with Trump's assertion that "many sides" were responsible for the violence in Charlottesville, while 9% believed that ANTIFA et. al. were primarily responsible for the violence.

Now, look at what Gillespie has done in the aftermath of the violence in Charlottesville.

- He has condemned white nationalism, neo-Nazi ideology, and the KKK by name
- He has not directly attacked the President
- He has adopted a position supporting the rights of the localities involved to make their own decisions about the statues, while generally opposing the removal of the statues himself.

AFAICT, Gillespie has checked all the boxes. Meanwhile, Northam has taken a trendy (among liberal/media elites) but hardline stance in choosing to wholeheartedly support historical revisionism and iconoclasm. Nate Silver tells us that kind of stance won't be taken well by independents and only tepidly accepted by many Democrats.

[erſatz-york]

I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.

I definitely agree that Gillespie must wage an uphill battle if he wants to be Governor, and that Northam will be the likely victor of this race barring a major development in Gillespie's favor. I would caution, however, that earlier posters have concluded that Gillespie looks and sounds a lot better than Northam in a debate.

He has, however, not been hurt by the events of the past week if the statistics are to be believed.

Regarding your first point, you are probably right.

[erſatz-york]

I would be careful saying Trump's bounce from a -25% approval to -20% is due to his response when it was probably regression to the norm after his health care slump.

I would also say thinking some Republican who already lost statewide once could win in a state Trump lost and has a -20% or lower approval rating is delusion.

I definitely agree that Gillespie must wage an uphill battle if he wants to be Governor, and that Northam will be the likely victor of this race barring a major development in Gillespie's favor. I would caution, however, that earlier posters have concluded that Gillespie looks and sounds a lot better than Northam in a debate.

He has, however, not been hurt by the events of the past week if the statistics are to be believed.

Regarding your first point, you are probably right.

Debates don't really matter; 2016 taught us that.

That was because both candidates had been in the public eye for decades.

[erſatz-york]

Ed will win

[erſatz-york]

Ed will win by 2 points or more

[erſatz-york]

T I T A N I U M

R

[erſatz-york]

Sorry snowflakes this race is

T I T A N I U M

R

[erſatz-york]

http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.

Øptimus is the same polling firm that had Roy Moore up 55%-45% three days before Moore won 54.6%-45.4% so...

Gillespie by 2-3 pp.