Rothenberg Senate Rankings (user search)
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Author Topic: Rothenberg Senate Rankings  (Read 37611 times)
Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« on: January 14, 2009, 02:26:02 PM »

I think he overstates Vitter's vulnerability. Otherwise, it's not bad at all, although Dorgan and Grassley seem a bit arbitrary (maybe there because of retirement watch?).
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Verily
Cuivienen
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*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2009, 11:56:09 PM »

No way Gillibrand should be considered safe, even in New York.   She's not well known enough yet and may face a brutal primary challenge from someone downstate.  Couple that with the possibility of a prominent Republican other than Peter King getting into the race if things get ugly enough, and I think that seat belongs in the Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party pile instead.

Chuck Schumer (unfortunately) is safe.

Primary challenge comes from the wrong direction to make the seat potentially competitive. Unless, of course, you think Carolyn McCarthy/Maloney would stand a chance in the primary (answer: no).
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Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2009, 12:33:52 PM »

Nevada is definitely more than Narrow Advantage at this point. Reid is reasonably popular in his state, and the Republicans have nobody but jokes lining up to take him on. And Nevada is nowhere near as Republican these days as it has been in the past. It's wishful thinking to put Reid at anything but Clear Advantage.

Otherwise I mostly agree with the ratings.
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