ABC/Ipsos: Biden +1 (RV), +4 (LV)

[wbrocks67]

According to this poll, trump is leading young voters and Hispanics and is garnering 18% of the black vote.

Yet the margin is the same as 2020?

Those are all among adults. Not sure why they did the table and only gave adults results when they could've done RV.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

The blue avatars are slowly realizing that Biden’s in the driver’s seat this year. See how they’re flocking to pick apart this poll and prop up the crappy internals this morning?

And news flash — I know voters who would rate Trump’s presidency as a success but won’t vote for him because of Jan 6 and his current legal troubles.

Same here actually lol

[wbrocks67]

The other issue with Trump here is something that has happened in other polls as well - he's stuck at the same # no matter if its adults, RV, LV. The way he's at 45-46 here no matter what the group is is telling.

[The Mikado]

The LV sample is 50% college educated

Isn’t that pretty high?

The number of Americans with college degrees/certifications is up to 54 percent.

Nope.

In the Census Bureau's most recent 2022 findings, the percentage of people with a bachelor's degree or higher remained stable from the previous year at around 37.7%.

And again, Biden isn’t winning with a JA of 35%.

College educated voters vote in a way higher proportion than non college voters do. They were 41% of the electorate in 2020 despite being like 35% of the adult population. If 2024 is a lower turnout election and you expect it to drop more with non-college than college, it wouldn't be outlandish for them to be like 45% of the electorate off of 37% of the adult population.

[kwabbit]

Given that ABC/Wapo have not done a poll since September, this is interesting timing. I wonder if ABC is oscillating between Ipsos and Wapo to cut costs, b/c Gary Langer is the one who handled this poll, and he usually handles the Wapo polls too.

It’s not to cut costs I’m guessing. Whatever methodology they were using for the WaPo polls was extremely friendly to Trump and they got so much flak last time that they didn’t want to release another Trump +10 and suffer some reputational damage.

[wbrocks67]

The LV sample is 50% college educated

Isn’t that pretty high?

The number of Americans with college degrees/certifications is up to 54 percent.

Nope.

In the Census Bureau's most recent 2022 findings, the percentage of people with a bachelor's degree or higher remained stable from the previous year at around 37.7%.

And again, Biden isn’t winning with a JA of 35%.

College educated voters vote in a way higher proportion than non college voters do. They were 41% of the electorate in 2020 despite being like 35% of the adult population. If 2024 is a lower turnout election and you expect it to drop more with non-college than college, it wouldn't be outlandish for them to be like 45% of the electorate off of 37% of the adult population.

I don't think it's that outlandish, given that if it's a lower turnout election for *some groups* (i.e. non-college), then it's very possible college ed (who are more reliable voters, even in lower turnout elections) could be 45%. Not saying it's likely, but it's not impossible.

[Sir Mohamed]

I guess we'd be at 7 pages with Trump ahead now.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Outlier.

I mean, not really.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

So a Trump internal comes out showing him up in MN and y’all treat it like the gospel, yet a high quality poll (which had a history of showing very trump friendly results) shows Biden up and y'all dismiss it. Makes sense.

Biden still loses with this PV margin. And looking at the polling bias from 2020, I'd unskew the poll at a minimum to Trump +2. So that's a healthy lead for him regardless in the swing states.

Yeah, picking at the crosstabs is stupid and hackish. It makes far more sense to compare each and every poll with a Biden lead to 2020, plus it's a lot easier.

[DrScholl]

So a Trump internal comes out showing him up in MN and y’all treat it like the gospel, yet a high quality poll (which had a history of showing very trump friendly results) shows Biden up and y'all dismiss it. Makes sense.

Biden still loses with this PV margin. And looking at the polling bias from 2020, I'd unskew the poll at a minimum to Trump +2. So that's a healthy lead for him regardless in the swing states.

If you are actually admitting you are unskewing then you are losing. The likely voter number is what counts anyway because it's always been closer to reality than registered voters.

By the way, Trump and healthy have no business in the same sentence.

[Eraserhead]

A (much needed) solid poll for Biden. Probably a bit too early to pay much attention to likely voters though.

[Eraserhead]

According to this poll, trump is leading young voters and Hispanics and is garnering 18% of the black vote.

Yet the margin is the same as 2020?

I'm reading 13% of the black vote (which would be right around 2020), but I only skimmed.  Biden's bigger issue here might be that he's drawing only 73% of the black vote according to this poll versus 87% in 2020.  

Few Black people, 13%, back Trump; as many pick someone else.

To be honest, that's probably a bigger issue for Trump considering what those black voters saying "undecided/someone else" are likely to do when they actually go to vote. That is, of course, assuming they show up at all though.

[Podgy the Bear]

The LV sample is 50% college educated

Isn’t that pretty high?

The number of Americans with college degrees/certifications is up to 54 percent.

Which is why I specifically mentioned “certifications” as criteria.  This is a Forbes survey from 2021.  Many will self report as college educated—whether it’s a degree or not.

The relevant topic for me is that how these people will vote.  It’s well accepted that these voters will turn out in November at a much higher level than those with little or no college education.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I really do think that Trump would win if he had the same ground game that he had in 2020 but that he will lose because he is too distracted on the criminal trials. Even if a conviction does not move any votes, not having 'Black Voices for Trump' backing him means the least likely Black voters that say they support him will not actually show up at the polls (and you could say likewise for other groups unless there is some micro-targeting game for conservative Hispanics that I have not seen any coverage of).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I really do think that Trump would win if he had the same ground game that he had in 2020 but that he will lose because he is too distracted on the criminal trials. Even if a conviction does not move any votes, not having 'Black Voices for Trump' backing him means the least likely Black voters that say they support him will not actually show up at the polls (and you could say likewise for other groups unless there is some micro-targeting game for conservative Hispanics that I have not seen any coverage of).

I've mentioned this before, but in addition to the distraction of his trials, there seems to be an element of laziness in his campaign, as if they feel "entitled" to win and have it already in the bag.  Ironically, the closest recent equivalent in that sense is probably Hillary in 2016.

[GAinDC]

I really do think that Trump would win if he had the same ground game that he had in 2020 but that he will lose because he is too distracted on the criminal trials. Even if a conviction does not move any votes, not having 'Black Voices for Trump' backing him means the least likely Black voters that say they support him will not actually show up at the polls (and you could say likewise for other groups unless there is some micro-targeting game for conservative Hispanics that I have not seen any coverage of).

I've mentioned this before, but in addition to the distraction of his trials, there seems to be an element of laziness in his campaign, as if they feel "entitled" to win and have it already in the bag.  Ironically, the closest recent equivalent in that sense is probably Hillary in 2016.

His campaign feels very lazy this time around. I’ve said on here before that, as much as it pains me to say, I’ve always admired Trump’s hustle on the campaign trail. But this year, I’m not seeing it.

It’s actually Biden/Harris who seem to be doing more rallies and campaign events right now.

I’m also seeing better message discipline from their campaign — It’s jobs, abortion, climate, democracy and character.

I’m not really sure what the Republicans’ main message is. Sometimes it’s inflation, but it’s not as effective as it was in ‘22/‘23. Sometimes it’s immigration, but they don’t seem to have a real plan about it other than reheated Trump policies.

Perhaps the most salient talking point is “there were no wars when Trump was President,” which I guess is good, but that’s also not really true because we were still at war in Afghanistan when Trump was President and they criticized Biden for pulling troops out. Meanwhile, the US has no boots on the ground in Ukraine and Israel and Republicans continue to support aid for those two countries’ wars, while Trump is asking Bibi to “finish the job,” which means escalation. So what exactly is the contrast compared to Biden?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I tell you once I tell you again Trump isn't gonna get 53 percent on the Economy due to his silly tax cuts when we vote. That's why polls are misleading and Biden is gonna get 50 percent of the vote while Trump gets 45 like last time. That's why I tell you polls Lie

[emailking]

Wow glad to see Biden is up by 4! That would be enough to give him the election, even with a postulated Trump EC bias that several posters here are fond of.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isn't winning AZ and NV by 6 and GA and NC by 8

[Progressive Pessimist]

We still need to see Biden doing better in some battleground state polls, but the recent freakout by many really still seems premature, and I knew I would regret buying into it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one is freaking about polls except blue avatars and we still haven't voted yet that's the difference

It's the same users freaking out all the time

[MR DARK BRANDON]

We still need to see Biden doing better in some battleground state polls, but the recent freakout by many really still seems premature, and I knew I would regret buying into it.

These next 6 months are gonna be lit.

[CookieDamage]

We still need to see Biden doing better in some battleground state polls, but the recent freakout by many really still seems premature, and I knew I would regret buying into it.

You are literally gonna flip flop between dooming and not dooming based on what everyone else thinks it's gonna be so entertaining

[Progressive Pessimist]

We still need to see Biden doing better in some battleground state polls, but the recent freakout by many really still seems premature, and I knew I would regret buying into it.

You are literally gonna flip flop between dooming and not dooming based on what everyone else thinks it's gonna be so entertaining

In my defense, I resisted dooming for a pretty impressive amount of time, if you ask me.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

We still need to see Biden doing better in some battleground state polls, but the recent freakout by many really still seems premature, and I knew I would regret buying into it.

You are literally gonna flip flop between dooming and not dooming based on what everyone else thinks it's gonna be so entertaining

In my defense, I resisted dooming for a pretty impressive amount of time, if you ask me.

Your overall prediction has remained consistent as well lol