2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Tintrlvr]

I don't know this stuff as well as you guys, but if I were in the republicans' position, I would cede most urban and inner suburban areas to democrats. Something like

Dallas- 4
Houston- 3/4 (depending on whether you count Fort Bend as Houston)
Austin- 2
San Antonio-1/2 (depending on how much they wanna fajita strip areas to the north and to the valley)

They could end up doing this, but only if 2020 goes at leas as bad as 2018 for them.  Should they lose something statewide in 2020 but retain redistricting control, they won't be taking any chances this time.  

The GOP would probably lose control of the Texas HoR on the current map before they lose any statewide races (as I recall, O'Rourke won an easy majority of Texas HoR seats in 2018 even while losing statewide), so that may be a moot point.

It is an interesting issue of what happens if the Democrats control the Texas HoR (or otherwise the Republicans can't pass their maps, say if they have a majority of 1 or 2 and some rebels who are anti-gerrymandering).

[Tintrlvr]

I don't know this stuff as well as you guys, but if I were in the republicans' position, I would cede most urban and inner suburban areas to democrats. Something like

Dallas- 4
Houston- 3/4 (depending on whether you count Fort Bend as Houston)
Austin- 2
San Antonio-1/2 (depending on how much they wanna fajita strip areas to the north and to the valley)

They could end up doing this, but only if 2020 goes at leas as bad as 2018 for them.  Should they lose something statewide in 2020 but retain redistricting control, they won't be taking any chances this time.  

The GOP would probably lose control of the Texas HoR on the current map before they lose any statewide races (as I recall, O'Rourke won an easy majority of Texas HoR seats in 2018 even while losing statewide), so that may be a moot point.

Well he didn't win an easy majority, he literally won the barest majority btw. 76/150.

Ah, okay. Maybe less likely then. I thought it was something like 80-82 seats. Still, the Democrats only need to win every O'Rourke seat to control a house of the legislature, which is a smaller lift than getting those last two percentage points O'Rourke missed by statewide.

[Tintrlvr]

While everyone has been looking at federal redistricting, given that State Senate districts are actually larger than federal ones, opinion of this map?

https://districtr.org/edit/3296







This map should be a safe 19R-12D map. All R districts are at 58.5% Trump or more. All Dem districts are also at 58% Clinton or more.

Granted, I guess with trends and what not it could end up as a dummymander? I also think several of those districts might be illegal because of the VRA?

I think the Texas Constitution says they have to minimize county splits in the state legislative maps. So a few places you have two or more districts splitting the same two counties (like the three Dallas-Collin districts, the two Harris-Montgomery districts or the four Harris-Fort Bend districts) are illegal.

Although maybe that only applies to the state House... not certain.

[Tintrlvr]

I'm curious how you would chop up the west side of Houston on that map, Idaho Conservative. It would still lend itself to an additional toss-up seat unless you're actively splitting the area up and combining the parts with the rurals/Montgomery County.

[Tintrlvr]

What does "cross chop between counties" mean?

He means two districts that both include parts of the same two counties. (I personally don't think they are necessarily wrong in all circumstances; it's more like a good rule of thumb to avoid them but in some circumstances they are justified or even the ideal solution, since counties themselves are not always logical units of community interest.)

[Tintrlvr]

My goals were:
1. Least change for incumbents despite population change 
2. Preserve VRA precedents
3. Use Dem packs and cracking risky territory (Williamson, north Dallas) to ensure R districts are solid enough to last most of the decade
4. Avoid excessive snaking

TX-32 or even TX-3 seem tough for the Republicans for an entire decade, although it's hard to be certain without seeing 2020 figures. TX-24 and TX-26 also seem a bit risky. The trends in TX-10 are less strong, but that one seems risky, too.

[Tintrlvr]

I expect this to get a rather unhappy reception in the courts.

It would be beautiful if this massively backfires and the courts draw a dem majority map

Who would do that?  The crappy right wing Texas courts or the Crappy right wing 5th Cir./Crappy right wing SCOTUS?

Stealing Judicial seats did pay off for Cocaine Mitch..  It's definitely bought his nearly extinct party some time.

If it ends up as a federal case, it would be some random District Court judge (probably in the Western District of Texas, since that's where Austin is) who does the actual drawing, which could be anyone. The Supremes/5th Circuit wouldn't get involved in actually drawing the map.

[Tintrlvr]

I expect this to get a rather unhappy reception in the courts.

It would be beautiful if this massively backfires and the courts draw a dem majority map

Who would do that?  The crappy right wing Texas courts or the Crappy right wing 5th Cir./Crappy right wing SCOTUS?

Stealing Judicial seats did pay off for Cocaine Mitch..  It's definitely bought his nearly extinct party some time.

If it ends up as a federal case, it would be some random District Court judge (probably in the Western District of Texas, since that's where Austin is) who does the actual drawing, which could be anyone. The Supremes/5th Circuit wouldn't get involved in actually drawing the map.

Why wouldn't the 5th Circ. just overturn the random judge and return it to the legislature's map?  And then the SCOTUS refuse to hear any appeal?  That seems like the likely outcome if it even got that far.  

Well, we're assuming there's a new map at all; obviously if the maps are upheld then it doesn't matter who is hearing the case.

Also, even within the 5th Circuit you could luck out and get liberal judges. I doubt redistricting would be viewed as so important as to result in an en banc rehearing.

[Tintrlvr]

I just had one little thought. If the Dems gain the state legislature and governorship by the middle of the decade, they could try a mid-decade redistricting, given it should be easy enough to make a 24-14 or so map in the other direction.

Revenge for 2003...

The legislature did not redistrict in 2001.

Yes. The 2001 map was from federal court, if I recall correctly.
That screws up 2000s analogies a bit but if Ds do win control later on in the 2020s, we might still see a Dem mid-decade redraw. And the results might still evoke 2003.

I expect the Texas House to flip this decade, buoyed by the county-split rules when drawing House districts. But I would be more surprised if both the Texas Senate and Governor flip. Just seems too good to be true.

The Senate almost certainly will be the last to flip, very unlikely to happen before the 2031 redistricting. My guess is that the Democrats control the House and the Governor's mansion (plus some other line offices, such as LG) after 2030, and that's enough to get a non-gerrymandered map passed (the Republicans might be smart and implement a commission before then; otherwise it seems very possible the Democrats could actually control redistricting in 2031 even without the Senate given the way it works in Texas and pass a Democratic gerrymander), resulting in a flip of the Senate in 2032 when all seats are up for reelection as well.