I don't see how gaining 7k more Rs in the same period means Rs will perform better in a neutral setting, after Dems just gained over 200k+ more from 2016-2020.
I don't see how Ciatarelli can make it pretty close either, unless you count Murphy +10 as "pretty close"
Dems gained 220k over Republicans yet Biden won NJ with roughly the same margin that Clinton did.
It's not so much that 7k is a lot. It's more of a symbol of Republicans' wave.
In a neutral setting, I'd imagine that Dems would register something like 1.2-1.5 more voters than Republicans in NJ. The fact that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in a blue state means Republicans have the enthusiasm.
I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.
It's going to be a more Republican year, but on the other hand, in 2017, Murphy was seen a rich guy with no substance. NJ was hit hard, but Murphy has been popular throughout the pandemic, though his approvals have dropped from their highs in the spring of 2020. He'll probably underperform Biden's 2020 numbers, but 4-5 points seems like a bit of a stretch to me.
