2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[BoiseBoy]

The two favorites seem to be Birch and Chestnut at the moment. I think Chestnut has the best chance of being enacted. The commission just voted 9-4 to not amend the maps any further.

https://twitter.com/dnbethleblanc/status/1475916865440559106?s=21

[BoiseBoy]

Weiss - Chestnut
Witjes - Chestnut
Clark - Chestnut
Curry - Birch
Eid - Chestnut
Kellom - Chestnut
Delay- Lange
Lett - Chestnut
Orton - Chestnut
Rothhorn - Birch
Szetela - Birch
Valette - Birch
Wagner - Lange
Lange - Lange

Chestnut has been officially adopted as Michigan's new congressional map.

[Brittain33]

That’s fine, Apple was going to be the poster child for Republican disenchantment with commissions for the decade if it passed.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1475923467870646274?s=20

https://twitter.com/iansandlerbowen/status/1475923468445052928?s=20

[Horus]

Hopefully Levin can primary Haley Stevens but I'm not optimistic.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

That's a shocker, I expected Birch

[Nyvin]

Chestnut kinda sucks for Andy Levin in MI-10, but other than that all the rest of the competitive districts are a bit better for Democrats than Birch, except MI-3 (Kent County) which is WAY better for Democrats.

[Stuart98]

Unfathomably based. Michigan has had the best redistricting process in the country and I don't think it's particularly close.

[BoiseBoy]

Chestnut kinda sucks for Andy Levin in MI-10, but other than that all the rest of the competitive districts are a bit better for Democrats than Birch, except MI-3 (Kent County) which is WAY better for Democrats.

I think this was a good map to go with. I would have preferred to see Muskegon in MI-3 and have more of Ottowa in MI-4 but other than that, no complaints.

[BoiseBoy]

For reference here is the final map, with a DRA link:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::538b84c5-9d2a-402f-b5fd-b1b8320a6f01

(For the record, it is a little sad to see Meijer get put in a DEM-leaning seat. I liked him a lot. I hope he is able to hold on this year)

[lfromnj]

Unfathomably based. Michigan has had the best redistricting process in the country and I don't think it's particularly close.

How is GR Muskegon good.
That district is pretty trashy. The rest is decent but that is a clear Democratic gerrymander .

The Legislative districts are just lol and some of the worst in the entire midwest .

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Unfathomably based. Michigan has had the best redistricting process in the country and I don't think it's particularly close.

How is GR Muskegon good.

"Partisan Fairness"^tm
It's stupid, but it's in the Michigan constitution so...

[Sestak]

Big oof for Levin, RIP FF.

[lfromnj]

Unfathomably based. Michigan has had the best redistricting process in the country and I don't think it's particularly close.

How is GR Muskegon good.

"Partisan Fairness"^tm
It's stupid, but it's in the Michigan constitution so...

It could still just be a Biden district based with all of  Ottowa or 2 random rurals. Its only a Trump district if you add Eastern Ottawa(which is the best move as it is the most metro centric)

[Mr.Phips]

Unfathomably based. Michigan has had the best redistricting process in the country and I don't think it's particularly close.

How is GR Muskegon good.
That district is pretty trashy. The rest is decent but that is a clear Democratic gerrymander .

The Legislative districts are just lol and some of the worst in the entire midwest .

Meijer could very well hold that seat in 2022.

[Nyvin]

Unfathomably based. Michigan has had the best redistricting process in the country and I don't think it's particularly close.

It's without a doubt one of the best commissions this decade.

[lfromnj]

Unfathomably based. Michigan has had the best redistricting process in the country and I don't think it's particularly close.

How is GR Muskegon good.
That district is pretty trashy. The rest is decent but that is a clear Democratic gerrymander .

The Legislative districts are just lol and some of the worst in the entire midwest .

Meijer could very well hold that seat in 2022.

Still a pretty trash district when a perfect GR district is easy to make without disturbing anything else.

[GALeftist]

RIP to Andy Levin. Maybe Meijer can hang on in 2022 but I think he probably loses in 2024, that district is headed left fast. I think Kildee might be able to hold on but idk about Slotkin, although she obviously got a major boost and could probably come back in 2024. It's not perfect but overall a reasonably coherent and fair map.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Unfathomably based. Michigan has had the best redistricting process in the country and I don't think it's particularly close.

How is GR Muskegon good.

Republicans oppose any sort of national gerrymandering ban.  Given that, why should anyone care if conservatives feel - rightly or wrongly - that they’ve been the victims of gerrymandering?  

[lfromnj]

Unfathomably based. Michigan has had the best redistricting process in the country and I don't think it's particularly close.

How is GR Muskegon good.

Republicans oppose any sort of national gerrymandering ban.  Given that, why should anyone care if conservatives feel - rightly or wrongly - that they’ve been the victims of gerrymandering?  

How exactly would a national gerrymandering ban help Meijer who just got gerrymandered out of any seat past 2022?

This argument is so silly. It makes sense to attack Kinzinger on this but this is just stupid.

[BoiseBoy]

Unfathomably based. Michigan has had the best redistricting process in the country and I don't think it's particularly close.

How is GR Muskegon good.

Republicans oppose any sort of national gerrymandering ban.  Given that, why should anyone care if conservatives feel - rightly or wrongly - that they’ve been the victims of gerrymandering?  

How exactly would a national gerrymandering ban help Meijer who just got gerrymandered out of any seat past 2022?

To be fair, this is his current district, a gerrymandered seat:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Andy Levin's re-election hopes are very much still alive. And so are Meijer's.
I could see them both hold on in 2022.

[Pollster]

Doesn't Levin live in Bloomfield in the Biden +20 1th? Stevens lives in Rochester Hills in the Trump +1 10th.

Slotkin also technically lives in the 9th here, but will obviously run in the Lansing seat.

[BoiseBoy]

Andy Levin's re-election hopes are very much still alive. And so are Meijer's.
I could see them both hold on in 2022.

Levin's new seat is Trump +0.9, down from Trump +5.3 in 2016. Possibly winnable, but unlikely for 2022. He could try to win it back in 2024.

[Oryxslayer]

Andy Levin's re-election hopes are very much still alive. And so are Meijer's.
I could see them both hold on in 2022.

Levin's new seat is Trump +0.9, down from Trump +5.3 in 2016. Possibly winnable, but unlikely for 2022. He could try to win it back in 2024.

MI-09 was 52-44 Clinton in 2016 and 56-43 Biden in 2020. Obviously most of the D votes strongholds were in Oakland and this was drawn to be a suburban D pack in 2010, so a compact seat was never to his benefit. If we are looking purely at residency then he would run in the D Oakland seat, but so will Stevens.