Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[kcguy]

It obviously depends how big you make the constituencies. Thing is, the smaller you make them, the odder and more random the seat distributions can be.

I heard a story years ago about a redistribution in Ireland.

The ruling party created 3-member districts in areas where they had the majority, so they could win 2 seats out of every 3.  In areas where their opponents had the majority, they created 4-member districts, so each party would come out with 2 seats.

[Wilfred Day]

I heard a story years ago about a redistribution in Ireland.

The ruling party created 3-member districts in areas where they had the majority, so they could win 2 seats out of every 3.  In areas where their opponents had the majority, they created 4-member districts, so each party would come out with 2 seats.

That was standard Fianna Fail practice -- called a "tullymander" -- until they pushed it too far, and had to set up an independent Constituency Commission like our boundaries commissions.

But we were discussing MMP regions. In Scotland and Wales, the regions have fixed numbers (16-seaters in Scotland, with nine local and seven regional; 12-seaters in Wales, with eight local and four regional). So their commissions set the local boundaries as ours do, and then adjust the regional boundaries if necessary to fit.

[minionofmidas]

With the regions just being based on the EP constituencies as existed then, because they were there and the right size already, and redrawn as marginally as possible since.

[ObserverIE]

I heard a story years ago about a redistribution in Ireland.

The ruling party created 3-member districts in areas where they had the majority, so they could win 2 seats out of every 3.  In areas where their opponents had the majority, they created 4-member districts, so each party would come out with 2 seats.

That was standard Fianna Fail practice -- called a "tullymander" -- until they pushed it too far, and had to set up an independent Constituency Commission like our boundaries commissions.

The Tullymander - defined as a gerrymander that backfires - was actually a Fine Gael/Labour effort (Tully was the Labour Minister for Local Government whose responsibility the redrawing of electoral boundaries was). They drew up a set of 13 3-seat constituencies in Dublin city and county, in the expectation that most would elect 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, with the one exception being a 4-seater which could be expected to return 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab.

In the event, the swing to FF (the result of a combination of a giveaway manifesto and the deep unpopularity of the then coalition government) was so large that most of the 3-seaters elected 2 FF.

One of the positive achievements of the incoming FF government was to hand over the redrawing of boundaries to an independent electoral commission, where it has remained.

Governments can still try to influence the outcome in general terms by modifying the terms of reference, however; so, for next year's local elections, seats have been taken away from more rural counties in the west and allocated to local authorities in Dublin and surrounding counties, and the minimum number of councillors to be elected by any ward will be 6 (resulting in some local election wards with populations of 50-60,000). This may, purely coincidentally, help to alleviate the slaughter of Labour councillors next summer.

[Smid]

The Tullymander - defined as a gerrymander that backfires

Quite appropriate, then, that it is used in discussing the Saskatchewan redistribution, given that the rurban ridings were originally created to elect NDP MPs.

[Wilfred Day]

The Tullymander - defined as a gerrymander that backfires

Quite appropriate, then, that it is used in discussing the Saskatchewan redistribution, given that the rurban ridings were originally created to elect NDP MPs.

In fairness, as late as the 2007 election the NDP still won one Moose Jaw seat, and lost the other by 33 votes; and almost always won both before then.

[MaxQue]

The Tullymander - defined as a gerrymander that backfires

Quite appropriate, then, that it is used in discussing the Saskatchewan redistribution, given that the rurban ridings were originally created to elect NDP MPs.

In fairness, as late as the 2007 election the NDP still won one Moose Jaw seat, and lost the other by 33 votes; and almost always won both before then.

We are talking of federal seats.

[Wilfred Day]

The Tullymander - defined as a gerrymander that backfires

Quite appropriate, then, that it is used in discussing the Saskatchewan redistribution, given that the rurban ridings were originally created to elect NDP MPs.

In fairness, as late as the 2007 election the NDP still won one Moose Jaw seat, and lost the other by 33 votes; and almost always won both before then.

We are talking of federal seats.

Actually we are talking of Dick Proctor of Moose Jaw, MP for PALLISER from 1997 until his defeat in 2004, the principal advocate of the rurban ridings. The NDP had won MOOSE JAW--LAKE CENTRE in 1988, HUMBOLDT--LAKE CENTRE in 1980 and 1984, REGINA--QU'APPELLE in 1988 and even in 1993 and in 1997 and 2000, SASKATOON--ROSETOWN--BIGGAR in 1997 and a 1999 byelection, REGINA--LUMSDEN--LAKE CENTRE in 1993 and 1997, etc. 

[MaxQue]

The Tullymander - defined as a gerrymander that backfires

Quite appropriate, then, that it is used in discussing the Saskatchewan redistribution, given that the rurban ridings were originally created to elect NDP MPs.

In fairness, as late as the 2007 election the NDP still won one Moose Jaw seat, and lost the other by 33 votes; and almost always won both before then.

We are talking of federal seats.

Actually we are talking of Dick Proctor of Moose Jaw, MP for PALLISER from 1997 until his defeat in 2004, the principal advocate of the rurban ridings. The NDP had won MOOSE JAW--LAKE CENTRE in 1988, HUMBOLDT--LAKE CENTRE in 1980 and 1984, REGINA--QU'APPELLE in 1988 and even in 1993 and in 1997 and 2000, SASKATOON--ROSETOWN--BIGGAR in 1997 and a 1999 byelection, REGINA--LUMSDEN--LAKE CENTRE in 1993 and 1997, etc. 

I know that, but it has awfully backfired since then. I have a pretty strong dislike of Dick Proctor since that, too.

[Smid]

The Tullymander - defined as a gerrymander that backfires

Quite appropriate, then, that it is used in discussing the Saskatchewan redistribution, given that the rurban ridings were originally created to elect NDP MPs.

In fairness, as late as the 2007 election the NDP still won one Moose Jaw seat, and lost the other by 33 votes; and almost always won both before then.

We are talking of federal seats.

Actually we are talking of Dick Proctor of Moose Jaw, MP for PALLISER from 1997 until his defeat in 2004, the principal advocate of the rurban ridings. The NDP had won MOOSE JAW--LAKE CENTRE in 1988, HUMBOLDT--LAKE CENTRE in 1980 and 1984, REGINA--QU'APPELLE in 1988 and even in 1993 and in 1997 and 2000, SASKATOON--ROSETOWN--BIGGAR in 1997 and a 1999 byelection, REGINA--LUMSDEN--LAKE CENTRE in 1993 and 1997, etc. 

I know that, but it has awfully backfired since then. I have a pretty strong dislike of Dick Proctor since that, too.

Which was the point I was making above, that they were an NDP gerrymander that backfired.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's not exactly true; having rurban seats in the first place was (I think), but (and also, I think) the bizarre quartering adopted in the 1990s was a Liberal gerrymander.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it did end up helping the Liberals, as we figured out with the Pundit's Guide.

[DC Al Fine]

It still works as only Ralph Goodale's riding remains untouched by Tory MP's

[Hatman 🍁]

lol... I guess. But calling anything a "Liberal gerrymander" in Saskatchewan seems odd. Sure, it would have given the Liberals more seats in the 1993 election, but that election was "special". And it didn't turn out for them in 1997.

[Krago]

Back in June, Toronto City Council authorized the City Manager to hire a consultant to re-draw the city's ward boundaries.  Here is my job application.

Based on Toronto's 2011 Census population of 2,615,200, the current 44 wards have an average population of 60,000 (for Wilf: 59,433.1818).

My plan would freeze the size of City Council, and adjust the boundaries so that no ward could be more than 10% above or below the average.

Here is the map:  Proposed Toronto 44 Ward Map - Option 1

Enjoy.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not bad at all. And thankfully no reduction in council size (although I'd prefer there be 100 members).

Now all they need is names, and not the same names as their corresponding ridings either.

[Smid]

Not bad at all. And thankfully no reduction in council size (although I'd prefer there be 100 members).

Now all they need is names, and not the same names as their corresponding ridings either.

I agree with the naming - when two different electoral districts at different levels of government have the same name, it can lead to voter confusion. That's why I like Australia/Queensland/Brisbane naming of the inner-city Brisbane seat:

Federal seat: Brisbane
State seat: Brisbane Central
Local ward: Central ward.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not only that, but the two wards in each riding would share the same name. So every ward in Toronto has another ward with the same name. But, they're also identified by different numbers.

So, there is a ward called "Etobicoke-Lakeshore" for example that is not even on the lakeshore.

[Smid]

Not only that, but the two wards in each riding would share the same name. So every ward in Toronto has another ward with the same name. But, they're also identified by different numbers.

So, there is a ward called "Etobicoke-Lakeshore" for example that is not even on the lakeshore.

That is just ridiculous!

[Hatman 🍁]

Suggested names for Krago's map (inspired by the last time the city had proper ward names):

1) Thistletown
2) Rexdale
3) Markland-Centennial
4) Etobicoke Humber
5) Islington-Queensway
6) Lakeshore
7) North York Humber
Black Creek
9) Downsview
10) Willowdale-Westminster
11) York Humber
12) York-Eglinton
13) High Park
14) Parkdale
15) Lawrence Square
16) Lawrence Park
17) Davenport
18) Dovercourt
19) Annex
20) Trinity-Spadina
21) Forest Hill-Bracondale
22) Mount Pleasant
23) Willowdale-Lansing
24) Bayview-Steeles
25) York Mills
26) Don Valley South
27) Rosedale-Cabbagetown
28) Downtown
29) East York
30) Broadview-Greenwood
31) Taylor Creek
32) Beaches
33) Oriole
34) Don Parkway
35) Scarborough-Kennedy
36) Scarborough Bluffs
37) Scarborough-Wexford
38) Scarborough City Centre
39) Scarborough-L'Amoreaux
40) Agincourt-Sheppard
41) Agincourt-Finch
42) Scarborough-Malvern
43) Scarborough-Morningside
44) Scarborough-Highland Creek

[Linus Van Pelt]

Good names, and good map, overall. Just a few suggestions:

- Calling 16 "Lawrence Park" seems a little strange, since that's normally used for the area just east of Yonge. (I realize the school's west of Yonge). Maybe "Avenue Road"

- I would call 20 just "Spadina". Trinity-Bellwoods park, which is the source of the Trinity name, is actually just west of the ward.

- It's a bit weird to use "Don Valley South" for 26, since the river and valley run down to the lake. Maybe "Leaside-Thorncliffe".

- Don Mills is the neighborhood around Don Mills Road and Lawrence, which is not in Ward 33. "Fairview" might work.

[Hatman 🍁]

- Don Mills is the neighborhood around Don Mills Road and Lawrence, which is not in Ward 33. "Fairview" might work.

Oops. What about Oriole?

I just did up the names quickly, so there are some issues, obviously. My knowledge of Toronto geography isn't as good as say, Ottawa's.

[Linus Van Pelt]

- Don Mills is the neighborhood around Don Mills Road and Lawrence, which is not in Ward 33. "Fairview" might work.

Oops. What about Oriole?

I just did up the names quickly, so there are some issues, obviously. My knowledge of Toronto geography isn't as good as say, Ottawa's.

Yeah, that might work, too.

[lilTommy]

Good names, and good map, overall. Just a few suggestions:

- Calling 16 "Lawrence Park" seems a little strange, since that's normally used for the area just east of Yonge. (I realize the school's west of Yonge). Maybe "Avenue Road"

- I would call 20 just "Spadina". Trinity-Bellwoods park, which is the source of the Trinity name, is actually just west of the ward.

- It's a bit weird to use "Don Valley South" for 26, since the river and valley run down to the lake. Maybe "Leaside-Thorncliffe".

- Don Mills is the neighborhood around Don Mills Road and Lawrence, which is not in Ward 33. "Fairview" might work.

Nice start!

- Ward 20 - Drop the street names all together. We want names that are representative of the area right. I would go with "Fort York" or "Kensington-Fort York"

- Ward 28 - I don't like the "Downtown" cause that's just terrible, makes it feel like there is no neighbuorhoods at all. I would go with "Old York", "Old York and the Islands" or "St.Lawrence"

So my only question Hatman, why did you for all the Scarborough wards use the name "Scarborough" but nowhere else did you use the old city name (ok i looked, you did twice)? For those i would amend to remove that...
So for Etobicoke Humber, i would just go with "Humber" or "Humber Valley" based on the TO neighbourhoods map
http://www.toronto.ca/demographics/profiles_map_and_index.htm

The only think i don't like is i would be moved from ward 20 (Mike Layton) to ward 14 (Gord Perks) Still both Dippers though

[Hatman 🍁]

I agree Downtown is a terrible name, and I only used it because that was what was used as a ward name before the current configuration.

That also explains why I kept Scarborough in most of the Scarborough Ward names, as that was what was done in that map. If it makes sense, feel free to drop the name "Scarborough" and tack on another neighbourhood name where it makes sense.