CA Congressional Races: Issa and Barragan in trouble?

[socaldem]

Election results in California come in at a frustratingly slow pace but there are, apparently, a couple million ballots still uncounted and two congressional races with tightening margins:

CA-44
Nanette Barragan (D)- 63,533 50.9%
Isadore Hall (D) - 61,263 49.1%

Barragan's showing here is certainly a major upset and an anti-establishment signal.

This race is a fascinating battle between a more pro-business, establishment African-American politician and a Bernie-style latina outsider. Of course, the ethnic politics of the district were critical and while the district includes the traditional African-American powerbase of Compton, it's nearly 70% latino.

In any case, Hall led in early returns (vote by mail) and also has picked up steam in late-counted absentees since election day. This race has been called already for Barragan but I certainly could see Hall pulling ahead, especially if he continues to perform strongly in mail-in ballots.

I actually live in this district, btw, and supported Hall, though, honestly, I'm kind of on the fence between the two candidates.

CA-49

Darrell Issa (R) 50.1% 105,737
Doug Applegate (D) 49.1% 102,003

A close race that's inching towards Applegate. Applegate won big in the San Diego portion of the district but struggled in the deeply conservative South Orange County portion. Late counted ballots in California tend to favor Democrats so this race will certainly get closer but it may not be quite enough for Applegate to win.

CA-07

Ami Bera (D) 50.6% 103,831
Scott Jones (D) 49.4% 101,248

It looks like Bera will hang on. He should make up a little more ground with the late counted ballots. However, I expect that his congressional career may be nearing an end at some point. The campaign finance scandal with his father (who has been convicted) seems pretty unsavory. Dems may be better off with a different candidate in this district...

[socaldem]

Hasn't Bera always had a tight race in his district? I definitely recall he was losing on election night in 2014, but after all the ballots were counted he pulled narrowly ahead.

Yeah, it's a tough district and the Sacramento suburbs haven't trended as blue as quickly as those in the coastal areas of the state.

[socaldem]

Inching closer in CA-49

    Doug Applegate
(Party Preference: DEM)   106,967   
49.3%

*   Darrell Issa
(Party Preference: REP)   109,838   
50.7%

[socaldem]

Inching closer in CA-49

    Doug Applegate
(Party Preference: DEM)   106,967   
49.3%

*   Darrell Issa
(Party Preference: REP)   109,838   
50.7%

Could it.. could it be happening?

God I hope so. Issa is one of the worst.

Plus Dems have a pretty good record of picking up house seats in Presidential years (except under the 2000-2010 map) which was a terrible pro-incumbent scheme:

'96 CA-10 (Tauscher); CA-22 (Capps); CA-42 (Sanchez)
'00 CA-49 (Davis); CA-36 (Harman); CA-31 (Solis); CA-27 (Schiff); CA-15 (Honda)
'12 CA-26 (Brownley); CA-36 (Ruiz); CA-52 (Peters); CA-07 (Bera); CA-47 (Takano)
'16 CA-49 (?)

[socaldem]

So now Issa is suing Applegate for libel!

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/12/darrell-issa-libel-lawsuit-doug-applegate

This is absurd but typical of Trump Republicans, I guess.