latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair’s % probability of each of the following getting their party’s nomination:

Democratic nomination
Harris 34.5
Biden 31.8
Buttigieg 6.8
Ocasio-Cortez 5.8

Republican nomination
Haley 12.2
Trump 10.9
Pence 10.0
Cruz 7.5
Carlson 6.4
Noem 5.3
Ivanka Trump 4.5
Rubio 4.3
Cotton 3.6
Pompeo 3.4
Ryan 3.4
Crenshaw 2.6
Hawley 2.6
Romney 2.4
Kanye West 2.4

Haley’s also leading in $markets, the other active peer-to-peer betting site.  It’s more mixed in the markets with prices set by bookies, with many of them still having Trump leading.  Though even in most of those that have Trump leading, Haley’s in second place.

Anywhere, here is Betfair: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.178163685 , but the odds are more digestible in the aggregator Oddschecker: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024/republican-candidate

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Don't be fooled by the fools on Betfair, Haley has no chance.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Patiently waiting for someone to add Lindell as an option before I place a bet

[Del Tachi]

No DeSantis?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

No DeSantis?

DeSantis has said that he doesn't plan on running.
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/08/11/desantis-squelches-talk-of-a-white-house-run-1307396
Obviously it makes sense, if he runs he won't announce it until after he wins again in 2022, but I don't expect betting markets to have him on until he formally announces.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm surprised that this far out, Harris is at a higher percentage than Biden.

Is it really set in stone that he won't run again?

[Real Texan Politics]

Don't be fooled by the fools on Betfair, Haley has no chance.

Wasn’t that the same with Jeb! in the 2016 election?

[Mr. Morden]

Haley's stint at the top didn't last very long, as Trump is back in the #1 spot for the GOP nomination (albeit only with a ~15% chance of winning given the big field):

Democratic nomination
Harris 33.5
Biden 26.6
Buttigieg 5.8
Ocasio-Cortez 3.6
Yang 3.3
Warren 3.1

Republican nomination
Trump 14.9
Haley 11.4
Pence 8.1
Cruz 7.0
Rubio 4.2
Hawley 3.4
Pompeo 3.4
Ivanka Trump 3.4
Cotton 3.3
Ryan 3.1
Crenshaw 2.6
Romney 2.4
Kanye West 2.4
Carlson 2.1
Noem 1.9

[Mr. Morden]

No DeSantis?

Yeah, it looks like none of the betting sites have DeSantis contracts yet, though I'd imagine he'd be added at some point.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Can I seriously buy Biden shares for 25 cents on the dollar?

I'd make a killing here if I thought it was worth tying up tens of thousands of dollars for 4 years and then losing half of it to taxes and fees on the back end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since D's have improved on maintaining control of Congress in the midterms, Harris will have to wait til 2028, since R chances have dwindled since the Insurrectionists

If the insurrection never happened, it would have been probable that Rs took Congress in 2022.

Insurrection Prosecution isn't over yet, news is dropping everyday

[Chips]

Interesting I guess.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump's gained a bigger lead for the GOP nom., and they've also added contracts for DeSantis and Gaetz, who're tied for 5th place for the nomination:

Democratic nomination
Harris 32.9
Biden 24.7
Buttigieg 5.8
Warren 5.3
Ocasio-Cortez 3.7
Yang 3.1

Republican nomination
Trump 19.3
Haley 11.9
Pence 8.4
Cruz 7.0
DeSantis 5.0
Gaetz 5.0
Rubio 3.7
Hawley 3.4
Ivanka Trump 3.4
Cotton 3.3
Pompeo 3.1
Ryan 3.1
Crenshaw 2.5
Romney 2.4
Kanye West 2.4
Carlson 2.1
Noem 1.9

(I'm not going to be updating twice within the same week very often for quite some time, but since there was the question about DeSantis earlier, I thought I'd update because of that.)

[Red Wall]

Betfair overbetting on Biden's death. Trump's attacks on him as senile failed and was probably one of his biggest dropoffs compared to how he framed Hillary as crooked. Biden has his mental slips who are typical of an old man but he can run again. He isn't Dianne Feinstein.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Betfair overbetting on Biden's death. Trump's attacks on him as senile failed and was probably one of his biggest dropoffs compared to how he framed Hillary as crooked. Biden has his mental slips who are typical of an old man but he can run again. He isn't Dianne Feinstein.

It failed due to fact Trump didn't offer 2K checks until after the Election and the only thing Rs have to offer is tax cuts for the rich

[President Johnson]

The incumbent president is definitely underrated. Otherwise, I'd say the chance either Biden or Harris end up the nominee, is well over 90%.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

How do I get someone to add Mike Lindell

[boltzy_]

Is this an out of season April Fool's joke?

[Mr. Morden]

Biden creeping up on Harris in the Dem. market....

Democratic nomination
Harris 36.1
Biden 34.5
Warren 7.5
Ocasio-Cortez 6.2
Buttigieg 3.7
Yang 2.6

Republican nomination
Trump 17.4
Haley 12.8
DeSantis 8.8
Pence 6.5
Pompeo 5.0
Carlson 4.5
Cruz 4.3
Hawley 3.4
Romney 3.4
Rubio 3.4
Ivanka Trump 3.4
Crenshaw 2.6
Noem 2.6
Paul 2.2
Cotton 2.1
Jordan 1.8
Ryan 1.8
Kanye West 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Pre-straw poll (and pre-Trump speech) #s:

Democratic nomination
Harris 36.1
Biden 31.8
Warren 7.5
Buttigieg 5.4
Ocasio-Cortez 4.8
Yang 2.6

Republican nomination
Trump 26.9
Haley 13.1
DeSantis 8.8
Pence 5.8
Noem 4.8
Cruz 4.3
Rubio 4.0
Carlson 3.4
Pompeo 3.4
Hawley 3.3
Ivanka Trump 3.2
Romney 2.6
Rick Scott 2.5
Cotton 2.1
Crenshaw 2.1
Paul 1.8
Ryan 1.8
Kanye West 1.5

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis approvals are way down, like Sununu is, once they come out of Gov, they don't appeal to the broad electric, ha

[Mr. Morden]

The market remains unconvinced that Biden will actually run again:

Democratic nomination
Harris 36.7
Biden 31.8
Warren 6.5
Buttigieg 4.3
Ocasio-Cortez 4.3
Bloomberg 3.1

Republican nomination
Trump 21.7
Haley 12.8
DeSantis 11.6
Pompeo 6.4
Pence 6.2
Noem 5.3
Ivanka Trump 4.8
Cruz 4.3
Hawley 4.3
Carlson 4.2
Rubio 3.4
Romney 2.1
Rick Scott 2.1
Cotton 1.9
Crenshaw 1.9
Jim Jordan 1.6
Ryan 1.6
Paul 1.3

[Real Texan Politics]

And meanwhile on PredictIt, Harris went from having a 9 cent lead over Biden to only a 1 cent lead. We'll see what happens in the next few days.

[Mr. Morden]

Update...

Democratic nomination
Harris 35.9
Biden 32.2
Warren 6.4
Buttigieg 5.3
Ocasio-Cortez 3.4
Bloomberg 3.1
Gabbard 2.9
Yang 2.5

Republican nomination
Trump 21.7
DeSantis 14.9
Haley 12.4
Pence 6.4
Noem 5.5
Cruz 5.3
Pompeo 4.8
Hawley 3.8
Carlson 3.6
Rubio 3.4
Ivanka Trump 3.3
Cotton 2.6
Romney 2.1
Rick Scott 2.1
Crenshaw 1.9
Jim Jordan 1.8

[slothdem]

There's absurd value on those Biden numbers.