A Political Fable 2: A Good Day to Vote Hard

[badgate]

XLVII: 7:30pm


7:22pm - Indiana for Walker
Indiana - Gillibrand 46% Walker 53% Other 1%

7:30pm
North Carolina - Too Close to Call
Ohio - Too Close to Call
West Virginia - Gillibrand 45% Walker 52%


7:51pm - Georgia sends its electoral votes for Walker
Georgia - Gillibrand 47% Walker 52% Other 1%

Republican Scott Walker is ahead 48 to 3, but the night is still young!

[Flake]

I can safely say that this is the best timeline I have ever read, and whoever wins, badgate, you did a perfect job.

[PolitiJunkie]

I can safely say that this is the best timeline I have ever read, and whoever wins, badgate, you did a perfect job.

Seconded

[badgate]

I can safely say that this is the best timeline I have ever read, and whoever wins, badgate, you did a perfect job.

Seconded

Just so y'all know, there will be percentages for every state, as well as results by issue which I used to calculate the popular vote.

[badgate]

XLVIII: 8pm, The Big Kahuna

8pm
Alabama - Gillibrand 38% Walker 62%
Connecticut - Gillibrand 55% Walker 43% Other 2%
Deleware - Gillibrand 56% Walker 43% Other 1%
D.C. - Gillibrand 87% Walker 10% Other 3%
Florida - Too Close to Call
Illinois - Gillibrand 60% Walker 40%
Maine (state-wide) - Gillibrand 52% Walker 47% Other 1%
Maine (ME-1) - Gillibrand 54% Walker 44% Other 2%
Maine (ME-2) - Too Close to Call
Maryland - Gillibrand 58% Walker 41% Other 1%
Massachusetts - 63% Walker 36% Other 1%
Mississippi - Gillibrand 41% Walker 58% Other 1%
Missouri - Too Close to Call
New Hampshire - Too Close to Call
New Jersey - Gillibrand 55% Walker 45%
Oklahoma - Gillibrand 42% Walker 57% Other 1%
Pennsylvania - Too Close to Call
Rhode Island - Gillibrand 62% Walker 35% Other 3%
Tennessee - Gillibrand 45% Walker 54% Other 1%

So now Democratic candidate Kirsten Gillibrand has 76 electoral votes, but Republican Scott Walker still leads with 81 electoral votes.

[PolitiJunkie]

I can safely say that this is the best timeline I have ever read, and whoever wins, badgate, you did a perfect job.

Seconded

Just so y'all know, there will be percentages for every state, as well as results by issue which I used to calculate the popular vote.

Hopefully in "A Political Fable 3: Gillibranded," the Democratic majorities in both Houses repeal presidential term limits and President Gillibrand becomes President for life.

[badgate]

XLIX: The Slow Hour

8:21pm - One North, One New
New Hampshire - Gillibrand 53% Walker 46% Other 1%
North Carolina - Gillibrand 49% Walker 50% Other 1%

8:30pm
Arkansas - Gillibrand 46% Walker 54%



I'll be honest with you guys, we don't have much more to report until nine. Our "2024 Decision Workshop" tells us that Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Missouri are all too close and it looks like Texas and Arizona will be as well come nine. So we're going to take a break and re-run an episode of the short-lived abc family classic Bunheads.












We can also, quickly, give Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand the one electoral vote from Maine's second congressional district.

8:31pm
Maine (ME-2) - Gillibrand 50% Walker 47% Other 3%

New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has crawled up to 81 electoral votes, yet Walker still leads and is now the first contender to crack 100. Scott Walker leads with 103 electoral votes.

[badgate]

L: Nine.



And we're back!

9pm
Arizona - Too Close to Call
Colorado - Too Close to Call
Kansas - Gillibrand 39% Walker 60% Other 1%
Louisiana - Gillibrand 45% Walker 54% Other 1%
Michigan - Gillibrand 54% Walker 46%
Minnesota - Gillibrand 53% Walker 47%
Nebraska (state-wide) - Gillibrand 47% Walker 52% Other 1%
Nebraska (NE-1) - Gillibrand 44% Walker 55% Other 1%
Nebraska (NE-2) - Too Close to Call
Nebraska (NE-3) - Gillibrand 42% Walker 57% Other 1%
New Mexico - Gillibrand 55% Walker 44% Other 1%
New York - Gillibrand 69% Walker 30% Other 1%
South Dakota - Gillibrand 44% Walker 55% Other 1%
Texas - Too Close to Call
Wisconsin - Too Close to Call
Wyoming - Gillibrand 38% Walker 61% Other 1%


So we have a few surprises, at least by my estimate. I like most of the staff at MSNBC have predicted a Gillibrand win, but we may be starting to see how large of a margin by the fact that we can't call the second congressional district of Nebraska. The Gillibrand campaign did have Get-Out-The-Vote offices there, but never bought any airtime. This could be a harbinger of how effective Gillibrand's messaging was throughout the campaign. Oh, and I'm now getting...yes, we can now call the Keystone state of Pennsylvania.










9:27pm - Pennsylvania for Gillibrand
Pennsylvania - Gillibrand 51% Walker 47% Other 2%

The Gillibrand/Castro ticket has 157 electoral votes, and for the first time tonight leads the Walker/Toomey ticket at 127 electoral votes.

[Enderman]

If Gillibrand/Castro is too close to call in states like Nebraska and Texas, its definitely gonna be a long night for the Republicans. . .

[PolitiJunkie]

If Gillibrand/Castro is too close to call in states like Nebraska and Texas, its definitely gonna be a long night for the Republicans. . .

I mean there's no reason why Gillibrand shouldn't be winning, considering we are in the 8th year of a controversial and sometimes unpopular Republican administration, and the Democrats' electoral college advantage doesn't seem to have gone anywhere, and perhaps even increased. Walker/Toomey is a strong ticket and it seems they ran a great campaign; this is probably the best they could be doing in this timeline's 2024 environment.

[badgate]

LI: Liftoff




10pm
Iowa - Too Close to Call
Montana - Gillibrand 49% Walker 51%
Nevada - Gillibrand 54% Walker 45% Other 1%
Utah - Gillibrand 34% Walker 66%











10:33pm - Gillibrand Rules the Old Dominion
Virginia - Gillibrand 53% Walker 47%

Gillibrand leads 176 to 136.

[badgate]

LII: What the Frack?




Good evening, thank you for tuning in. We have polls closing in the West and all are ready to be called.


11pm
California - Gillibrand 61% Walker 38% Other 1%
Hawai'i - Gillibrand 64% Walker 35% Other 1%
Idaho - Gillibrand 30% Walker 70%
North Dakota - Gillibrand 44% Walker 54% Other 2%
Oregon - Gillibrand 56% Walker 43% Other 1%
Washington - 54% Walker 45% Other 1%


So we still have a lot of open states, but the ball is in the Democrats' court tonight. Oh! It looks like we can call...okay...

11:14pm - Iowa goes to Gillibrand despite her primary loss
Iowa - Gillibrand 52% Walker 46% Other 2%

262/143

[PolitiJunkie]

If Gillibrand wins one more state, she's POTUS!

[badgate]

LIII: All Stand Down




11:50pm - Castro pick pays off
Arizona - Gillibrand 50% Walker 49% Other 1%
Colorado - Gillibrand 52% Walker 47% Other 1%










11:59pm - O-hi-O
Ohio - Gillibrand 51% Walker 48% Other 1%










12:24am - Walker will win his home state
Wisconsin - Gillibrand 49% Walker 49% Other 2%
















President-elect Kirsten Gillibrand

300 to 153.

[badgate]

LIV: 2024, results


Turnout - 69.16% (voting eligible)


United States Senate Results

Democrats - 51
Republicans - 47
Independent - 1
Libertarian - 1

30% = Pick up
50% = Open seat
70% = Incumbent reelected



United States Presidential Results

Alabama - Gillibrand 38% Walker 62%
Alaska - Gillibrand 46% Walker 53% Other 1%
Arizona - Gillibrand 50% Walker 49% Other 1%
Arkansas - Gillibrand 46% Walker 54%
California - Gillibrand 61% Walker 38% Other 1%
Colorado - Gillibrand 52% Walker 47% Other 1%
Connecticut - Gillibrand 55% Walker 43% Other 2%
Deleware - 56% Walker 43% Other 1%
D.C. - Gillibrand 87% Walker 10% Other 3%
Florida - Gillibrand 50% Walker 50%
Georgia - Gillibrand 47% Walker 52% Other 1%
Hawai'i - Gillibrand 64% Walker 35% Other 1%
Idaho - Gillibrand 30% Walker 70%
Illinois - Gillibrand 60% Walker 40%
Indiana - Gillibrand 46% Walker 53% Other 1%
Iowa - Gillibrand 52% Walker 46% Other 2%
Kansas - Gillibrand 39% Walker 60% Other 1%
Kentucky – Gillibrand 45% Walker 54% Other 1%
Louisiana - Gillibrand 45% Walker 54% Other 1%
Maine (state-wide) - Gillibrand 52% Walker 47% Other 1%
Maine (ME-1) - Gillibrand 54% Walker 44% Other 2%
Maine (ME-2) - Too Close to Call
Maryland - Gillibrand 58% Walker 41% Other 1%
Massachusetts - 63% Walker 36% Other 1%
Michigan - Gillibrand 54% Walker 46%
Minnesota - Gillibrand 53% Walker 47%
Mississippi - Gillibrand 41% Walker 58% Other 1%
Missouri - Gillibrand 51% Walker 48% Other 1%
Montana - Gillibrand 49% Walker 51%
Nebraska (state-wide) - Gillibrand 47% Walker 52% Other 1%
Nebraska (NE-1) - Gillibrand 44% Walker 55% Other 1%
Nebraska (NE-2) - Gillibrand 49% Walker 48% Other 3%
Nebraska (NE-3) - Gillibrand 42% Walker 57% Other 1%
Nevada - Gillibrand 54% Walker 45% Other 1%
New Hampshire - Gillibrand 53% Walker 46% Other 1%
New Jersey - Gillibrand 55% Walker 45%
New Mexico - Gillibrand 55% Walker 44% Other 1%
New York - Gillibrand 69% Walker 30% Other 1%
North Carolina - Gillibrand 49% Walker 50% Other 1%
North Dakota - Gillibrand 44% Walker 54% Other 2%
Ohio - Gillibrand 51% Walker 48% Other 1%
Oklahoma - Gillibrand 42% Walker 57% Other 1%
Oregon - Gillibrand 56% Walker 43% Other 1%
Pennsylvania - Gillibrand 51% Walker 47% Other 2%
Rhode Island - Gillibrand 62% Walker 35% Other 3%
South Carolina – Gillibrand 46% Walker 53% Other 1%
South Dakota - Gillibrand 44% Walker 55% Other 1%
Tennessee - Gillibrand 45% Walker 54% Other 1%
Texas - Gillibrand 49% Walker 48% Other 3%
Utah - Gillibrand 34% Walker 66%
Vermont – Gillibrand 63% Walker 35% Other 2%
Washington - 54% Walker 45% Other 1%
West Virginia - Gillibrand 45% Walker 52%
Wisconsin - Gillibrand 49% Walker 49% Other 2%
Wyoming - Gillibrand 38% Walker 61% Other 1%

Exit Poll

What issue was most important to you in the 2024 Presidential Election? (Nationally)
Trust, Honesty, & Intelligence - 40%
Jobs, Healthcare, & Entitlement Programs - 28%
National Security & Ability to be Commander-in-Chief - 32%



(Swing States)
Trust, Honesty, & Intelligence - 61%
Jobs, Healthcare, & Entitlement Programs - 21%
National Security & Ability to be Commander-in-Chief - 18%


Results by issue
Trust, Honesty & Intelligence
Gillibrand/Castro - 56%
Walker/Toomey - 42%
Other 2%


Jobs, Healthcare, & Entitlement Programs
Gillibrand/Castro - 67%
Walker/Toomey 31%
Other 2%


National Security & Ability to be Commander-in-Chief
Gillibrand/Castro - 37%
Walker/Toomey - 59%
Other - 4%

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand / Texas Governor Julían Castro - 382, 53.3%
Vice President Scott Walker / Senator Patrick Toomey - 156, 44.06%
Other - 0, 2.64%

[PolitiJunkie]

Love. So excited for Part 3.

[Enderman]

I love this timeline... This series is so cool. I wonder how 2032 would look like...

[badgate]

Haha, thanks, both of you. I think these timelines wouldn't be as enjoyable if we were perfectly impartial; besides, I don't think that's even possible. I'm going to write an Epilogue this evening but there probably won't be a part 3. Maybe if I have ideas for one in a few months, or an idea for a different TL, but now that I've finished this I'm going to focus on the musical I'm writing about Nellie Bly.

[PolitiJunkie]

Oh Badgate, I love this timeline... Even though Gillibrand will have eight years, this is such a great timeline... No matter the slight Liberal undertone, this series is so cool. I wonder how 2032 would look like...

Slight liberal undertone? What about the fact that Kelly f*****g Ayotte was President for the duration of the entire timeline?

But yeah, if there is a part 3, it should be called "Gillibranded." And there better be a part 3.

[badgate]

Epilogue: Requiem for an Administration


Friday, November 8, 2024

We got a glimpse at the fledgling Gillibrand administration in a meeting the President-elect held with the Vice President-elect, Transition director Denis McDonough, and the Gillibrand for America campaign director Charlie Marsh

GILLIBRAND: What's next?
MCDONOUGH: Texas still hasn't been called...
MARSH: We're ahead by 413 votes right now.
GILLIBRND: The nominations?
MCDONOUGH: De Blasio's vetting is almost done. So is Susan Rice.
CASTRO: Can I say again that Rice's past will haunt her if we nominate her?
MARSH: Thank you.
GILLIBRAND: You know how I feel about this. It's time to make Africa a priority and Rice is the best Secretary of State to achieve an aggressive agenda there.
MCDONOUGH: There will be questions about some consulting work she's done since 2017...you'll see in the file.
CASTRO: We have to be realistic about the majority in the Senate, though.
MARSH: Madame President-elect, I agree. Obviously your replacement will have been appointed by January, but our majority peaked two cycles ago; we have to know when to tread water, or we'll be working with a Republican Senate for the rest of your time in office.
GILLIBRAND: We can tread water in '26.
MCDONOUGH: It would be too late by then, but I am confident you can get Rice approved.
GILLIBRAND: If we announce De Blasio for the AG at the same time liberals will be neutralized, if not still elated.
MARSH: It'll be like a rallying cry for the right, though.
GILLIBRAND: What's next?
CASTRO: Defense?
MCDONOUGH: We are still looking at both Gabbard and Duckworth, Mr Vice President-elect.
GILLIBRAND: I like Duckworth...
CASTRO: But you're worried about Pompeii?
GILLIBRAND: Yeah. What do you think?
CASTRO: I've always preferred Gabbard. I don't think she wants to run for a fourth term, so she'd want it too. As Governor of Hawai'i she's overseen a major naval base. Lindsay Graham doesn't know a Zumwalt class from a Seawolf class.
(laughter)
MARSH: I agree.
GILLIBRAND: Great. Denis, why don't we go over the rest of the cabinet this afternoon. I've got to meet with [Gillibrand speechwriter] Kevin [Kaye] in ten minutes.
ALL: Thank you, madame President-elect

Sunday, December 1, 2024



Question: So, you presided over the first split-party administration in over one-hundred years. At the tail end of your second term, much has been made about the negatives this brought up. Do you regret agreeing to this to keep your office? Do you ever wonder, maybe I should have stepped aside and let the Congress elect Taylor/Gabbard?

President Ayotte: To that last question, never. But I should not have negotiated with the Congress. There should be- there needs to be a law preventing that from happening if an election is split like in 2020. Let me be clear about how I feel about this second term, I was not President. Ronald Reagan came so close to having a virtual co-Presidency with Gerald Ford, but at the last moment he recognized that it was an impossible way to govern in the Executive branch, and went with George Bush. I always admired him for that, but I guess the irony is that I had the first co-Presidency, in some ways, ever.

I think, if you're asking for my final advice to the nation, it is to abolish the electoral college. Vice President Taylor won the popular vote in 2020, and would have been elected President. That's fine, when we have reality as the alternative. And reality is that what I did, I know I'm responsible for it, my authority was weakened. My legislative priorities were compromised. Do you remember, eleven years ago, the shutdown? My party - led by Ted Cruz - shut down the government because we wanted to sabotage an existing law we disliked. President Obama was right to stand firm against that legislative extortion. If he hadn't, the Executive branch would have been weakened before I even took office. I guess that's my parting advice, or what I most want to say before I leave office.

Questioner: You referred to Gene Taylor as a 'co-President' there, can you elaborate on that? For example, what instantly came up in my head was who was giving orders in the Situation Room? Did he have equal access to things that you did?

Ayotte: No. My ability to give orders to soldiers and officers in the armed forces was not diminished or weakened. The Vice President's was never strengthened. What I meant was, I was obligated to put my weight and capital behind priorities for the country I disagreed with: the Electoral and Voting Ability Act. The Expanding Women's Health Coverage Act that the Vice President had made a campaign pledge. It was like if in 2013, to be reelected Barack Obama had to pass Mitt Romney's tax plan.

Questioner: On a lighter note, despite Scott Walker's electoral loss last month, the direction you steered your party as President seems to be helping in the Senate. Most political observers give the control of the Senate a coin toss after 2026. The House could end up being in play too depending on the next two years. You yourself were very conservative before you became President, at which point by the end of your first term you'd kind of drifted to the middle. Do you see that as a possible legacy for your time as President?

Ayotte: I see a lot of things as legacies I'm leaving behind, but the real legacies are balls that don't get dropped. I'm hoping the party continues on its current path once I leave office. I'm hoping the Gillibrand administration sees the value in the GDI and keeps it going. We saw this election that the Electoral and Voting Ability Act really did drive up turnout, which gives me hope that its provisions will be strengthened when it is up for reauthorization. And you know, I've spent some time, especially over this last year, talking on the phone with President Obama and Bush 43...really, our time in office belongs to the eye of the beholder. And I think I'm comfortable with that. It's easier than trying to get everyone to think one certain way about my Presidency.

Questioner: That was President Ayotte giving her 60 Minutes debrief, an interview tradition that President Barack Obama started in December of 2016 that President Ayotte wanted to continue. We'll be back after these messages.






The End

[PolitiJunkie]

Epilogue: Requiem for an Administration


Friday, November 8, 2024

We got a glimpse at the fledgling Gillibrand administration in a meeting the President-elect held with the Vice President-elect, Transition director Denis McDonough, and the Gillibrand for America campaign director Charlie Marsh

GILLIBRAND: What's next?
MCDONOUGH: Texas still hasn't been called...
MARSH: We're ahead by 413 votes right now.
GILLIBRND: The nominations?
MCDONOUGH: De Blasio's vetting is almost done. So is Susan Rice.
CASTRO: Can I say again that Rice's past will haunt her if we nominate her?
MARSH: Thank you.
GILLIBRAND: You know how I feel about this. It's time to make Africa a priority and Rice is the best Secretary of State to achieve an aggressive agenda there.
MCDONOUGH: There will be questions about some consulting work she's done since 2017...you'll see in the file.
CASTRO: We have to be realistic about the majority in the Senate, though.
MARSH: Madame President-elect, I agree. Obviously your replacement will have been appointed by January, but our majority peaked two cycles ago; we have to know when to tread water, or we'll be working with a Republican Senate for the rest of your time in office.
GILLIBRAND: We can tread water in '26.
MCDONOUGH: It would be too late by then, but I am confident you can get Rice approved.
GILLIBRAND: If we announce De Blasio for the AG at the same time liberals will be neutralized, if not still elated.
MARSH: It'll be like a rallying cry for the right, though.
GILLIBRAND: What's next?
CASTRO: Defense?
MCDONOUGH: We are still looking at both Gabbard and Duckworth, Mr Vice President-elect.
GILLIBRAND: I like Duckworth...
CASTRO: But you're worried about Pompeii?
GILLIBRAND: Yeah. What do you think?
CASTRO: I've always preferred Gabbard. I don't think she wants to run for a fourth term, so she'd want it too. As Governor of Hawai'i she's overseen a major naval base. Lindsay Graham doesn't know a Zumwalt class from a Seawolf class.
(laughter)
MARSH: I agree.
GILLIBRAND: Great. Denis, why don't we go over the rest of the cabinet this afternoon. I've got to meet with [Gillibrand speechwriter] Kevin [Kaye] in ten minutes.
ALL: Thank you, madame President-elect

Sunday, December 1, 2024



Question: So, you presided over the first split-party administration in over one-hundred years. At the tail end of your second term, much has been made about the negatives this brought up. Do you regret agreeing to this to keep your office? Do you ever wonder, maybe I should have stepped aside and let the Congress elect Taylor/Gabbard?

President Ayotte: To that last question, never. But I should not have negotiated with the Congress. There should be- there needs to be a law preventing that from happening if an election is split like in 2020. Let me be clear about how I feel about this second term, I was not President. Ronald Reagan came so close to having a virtual co-Presidency with Gerald Ford, but at the last moment he recognized that it was an impossible way to govern in the Executive branch, and went with George Bush. I always admired him for that, but I guess the irony is that I had the first co-Presidency, in some ways, ever.

I think, if you're asking for my final advice to the nation, it is to abolish the electoral college. Vice President Taylor won the popular vote in 2020, and would have been elected President. That's fine, when we have reality as the alternative. And reality is that what I did, I know I'm responsible for it, my authority was weakened. My legislative priorities were compromised. Do you remember, eleven years ago, the shutdown? My party - led by Ted Cruz - shut down the government because we wanted to sabotage an existing law we disliked. President Obama was right to stand firm against that legislative extortion. If he hadn't, the Executive branch would have been weakened before I even took office. I guess that's my parting advice, or what I most want to say before I leave office.

Questioner: You referred to Gene Taylor as a 'co-President' there, can you elaborate on that? For example, what instantly came up in my head was who was giving orders in the Situation Room? Did he have equal access to things that you did?

Ayotte: No. My ability to give orders to soldiers and officers in the armed forces was not diminished or weakened. The Vice President's was never strengthened. What I meant was, I was obligated to put my weight and capital behind priorities for the country I disagreed with: the Electoral and Voting Ability Act. The Expanding Women's Health Coverage Act that the Vice President had made a campaign pledge. It was like if in 2013, to be reelected Barack Obama had to pass Mitt Romney's tax plan.

Questioner: On a lighter note, despite Scott Walker's electoral loss last month, the direction you steered your party as President seems to be helping in the Senate. Most political observers give the control of the Senate a coin toss after 2026. The House could end up being in play too depending on the next two years. You yourself were very conservative before you became President, at which point by the end of your first term you'd kind of drifted to the middle. Do you see that as a possible legacy for your time as President?

Ayotte: I see a lot of things as legacies I'm leaving behind, but the real legacies are balls that don't get dropped. I'm hoping the party continues on its current path once I leave office. I'm hoping the Gillibrand administration sees the value in the GDI and keeps it going. We saw this election that the Electoral and Voting Ability Act really did drive up turnout, which gives me hope that its provisions will be strengthened when it is up for reauthorization. And you know, I've spent some time, especially over this last year, talking on the phone with President Obama and Bush 43...really, our time in office belongs to the eye of the beholder. And I think I'm comfortable with that. It's easier than trying to get everyone to think one certain way about my Presidency.

Questioner: That was President Ayotte giving her 60 Minutes debrief, an interview tradition that President Barack Obama started in December of 2016 that President Ayotte wanted to continue. We'll be back after these messages.






The End

Holy sh*t. That post put the EPI(C) in epilogue. A fantastic end to a fantastic timeline series.