PA-SEN (Rasmussen): Fetterman +2

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman (D) 45%
Oz (R) 43%
Someone else 6%
Undecided 6%

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2022/democrats_lead_in_pennsylvania_governor_senate_races

They also have Shapiro only +3, 43-40.

Also possible this was done for a GOP client, like the NV one was.

[Person Man]

I mean, if this is case, he’s probably fine.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good News

[Horus]

I have no idea what's going to happen in two weeks. Weird poll after weird poll, Dems up in Oklahoma, GOP up in NY, Rasmussen putting out sensible numbers, countless countervailing trends... just a bizarre year for elections.

[If my soul was made of stone]

The "someone else" number on its own is enough to junk this joint, but if even Rasmussen isn't so hook line and sinker on the Ozmentum carrot on a stick as half the red avatars here I won't lose so much sleep.

I have no idea what's going to happen in two weeks. Weird poll after weird poll, Dems up in Oklahoma, GOP up in NY, Rasmussen putting out sensible numbers, countless countervailing trends... just a bizarre year for elections.

America is a bizarre amalgam of bizarre places and that should be reflected in its voting habits. Reject trends.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Oz has done a good job at tightening the race, however he is so unpalatable and toxic to working class people it may not be enough

[MT Treasurer]

Both of these things can be true:

1. Oz has largely consolidated the base and mostly succeeded in righting the ship.
2. Righting the ship has made the race more competitive but not solved the GOP's main problem in PA: Oz's personal favorability ratings remain low enough that he will struggle where a generic R would have had a much easier time: actually winning over the lion's share of undecideds and genuinely independent/persuadable voters.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but Masters's unfavorability #s strike me as a lot 'softer' than Oz's, so again — it seems foolish to rule out AZ being the tipping-point race in the Senate instead of PA (although both are winnable for Republicans, at least in theory).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oz has done a good job at tightening the race, however he is so unpalatable and toxic to working class people it may not be enough

It's called blk people voted too in Philly and Pittsburgh not just working class Blk people are voting for Ryan DeWine and DEMINGS has a better chance than CRIST blks vote for DEMINGS DeSantis don't be surprised if DEMINGS upset Rubio and DeSantis wins that's why I still have FL a tossup Rubio is only up 5 and DeSantis up 11

[Person Man]

Both of these things can be true:

1. Oz has largely consolidated the base and mostly succeeded in righting the ship.
2. Righting the ship has made the race more competitive but not solved the GOP's main problem in PA: Oz's personal favorability ratings remain low enough that he will struggle where a generic R would have had a much easier time: actually winning over the lion's share of undecideds and genuinely independent/persuadable voters.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but Masters's unfavorability #s strike me as a lot 'softer' than Oz's, so again — it seems foolish to rule out AZ being the tipping-point race in the Senate instead of PA (although both are winnable for Republicans, at least in theory).

WI,NC, and OH are winnable “in theory”, but you could be right. It really depends on two narratives:

1) Trump had a superior GOTV gimmick
2) Right-Wing orgs have a superior GOTV system.

It really appears that Trump 2020 had their own version of The Bannock Street(which probably saved Hickenlooper and almost Udall in 2014) project. Do Republicans in general have it?

[Ferguson97]

I have no idea what's going to happen in two weeks. Weird poll after weird poll, Dems up in Oklahoma, GOP up in NY, Rasmussen putting out sensible numbers, countless countervailing trends... just a bizarre year for elections.

I can't wait for the presidential debates between New York Governor Lee Zeldin and Oklahoma Senator Kendra Horn.

[Calthrina950]

Fetterman is clinging to an advantage, and I still think he's going to win. But it's going to be a close race.

[Person Man]

Fetterman is clinging to an advantage, and I still think he's going to win. But it's going to be a close race.

I think this poll means Oz wins iff he has a polling error and enjoys a superior GOTV. The poll probably assumes that Republicans will out organize.

[Lief 🗽]

Both of these things can be true:

1. Oz has largely consolidated the base and mostly succeeded in righting the ship.
2. Righting the ship has made the race more competitive but not solved the GOP's main problem in PA: Oz's personal favorability ratings remain low enough that he will struggle where a generic R would have had a much easier time: actually winning over the lion's share of undecideds and genuinely independent/persuadable voters.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but Masters's unfavorability #s strike me as a lot 'softer' than Oz's, so again — it seems foolish to rule out AZ being the tipping-point race in the Senate instead of PA (although both are winnable for Republicans, at least in theory).

The problem with that is that (1) GOP has largely abandoned AZ for some reason if you look at spending (and big spending advantages in final weeks do matter), whereas Oz is closer to parity, and (2) Kelly is a much better candidate than Fetterman when it comes to winning over Biden Republicans.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Both of these things can be true:

1. Oz has largely consolidated the base and mostly succeeded in righting the ship.
2. Righting the ship has made the race more competitive but not solved the GOP's main problem in PA: Oz's personal favorability ratings remain low enough that he will struggle where a generic R would have had a much easier time: actually winning over the lion's share of undecideds and genuinely independent/persuadable voters.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but Masters's unfavorability #s strike me as a lot 'softer' than Oz's, so again — it seems foolish to rule out AZ being the tipping-point race in the Senate instead of PA (although both are winnable for Republicans, at least in theory).

The problem with that is that (1) GOP has largely abandoned AZ for some reason if you look at spending (and big spending advantages in final weeks do matter), whereas Oz is closer to parity, and (2) Kelly is a much better candidate than Fetterman when it comes to winning over Biden Republicans.

Point no. 2 is spot on.  I'd vote for Mark Kelly in a heartbeat.  I still have no idea who I'm voting for here in PA. 

[wbrocks67]

Both of these things can be true:

1. Oz has largely consolidated the base and mostly succeeded in righting the ship.
2. Righting the ship has made the race more competitive but not solved the GOP's main problem in PA: Oz's personal favorability ratings remain low enough that he will struggle where a generic R would have had a much easier time: actually winning over the lion's share of undecideds and genuinely independent/persuadable voters.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but Masters's unfavorability #s strike me as a lot 'softer' than Oz's, so again — it seems foolish to rule out AZ being the tipping-point race in the Senate instead of PA (although both are winnable for Republicans, at least in theory).

The problem with that is that (1) GOP has largely abandoned AZ for some reason if you look at spending (and big spending advantages in final weeks do matter), whereas Oz is closer to parity, and (2) Kelly is a much better candidate than Fetterman when it comes to winning over Biden Republicans.

Point no. 2 is spot on.  I'd vote for Mark Kelly in a heartbeat.  I still have no idea who I'm voting for here in PA. 

I'm sure you already know about this - but just curious, have you done the "I Side With" quiz? Which candidate do you align more on the issues?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Both of these things can be true:

1. Oz has largely consolidated the base and mostly succeeded in righting the ship.
2. Righting the ship has made the race more competitive but not solved the GOP's main problem in PA: Oz's personal favorability ratings remain low enough that he will struggle where a generic R would have had a much easier time: actually winning over the lion's share of undecideds and genuinely independent/persuadable voters.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but Masters's unfavorability #s strike me as a lot 'softer' than Oz's, so again — it seems foolish to rule out AZ being the tipping-point race in the Senate instead of PA (although both are winnable for Republicans, at least in theory).

The problem with that is that (1) GOP has largely abandoned AZ for some reason if you look at spending (and big spending advantages in final weeks do matter), whereas Oz is closer to parity, and (2) Kelly is a much better candidate than Fetterman when it comes to winning over Biden Republicans.

Point no. 2 is spot on.  I'd vote for Mark Kelly in a heartbeat.  I still have no idea who I'm voting for here in PA. 

I'm sure you already know about this - but just curious, have you done the "I Side With" quiz? Which candidate do you align more on the issues?

I'm assuming she sides with Oz on most issues but finds him unpalatable, but I may be wrong.

[Tekken_Guy]

Both of these things can be true:

1. Oz has largely consolidated the base and mostly succeeded in righting the ship.
2. Righting the ship has made the race more competitive but not solved the GOP's main problem in PA: Oz's personal favorability ratings remain low enough that he will struggle where a generic R would have had a much easier time: actually winning over the lion's share of undecideds and genuinely independent/persuadable voters.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but Masters's unfavorability #s strike me as a lot 'softer' than Oz's, so again — it seems foolish to rule out AZ being the tipping-point race in the Senate instead of PA (although both are winnable for Republicans, at least in theory).

The problem with that is that (1) GOP has largely abandoned AZ for some reason if you look at spending (and big spending advantages in final weeks do matter), whereas Oz is closer to parity, and (2) Kelly is a much better candidate than Fetterman when it comes to winning over Biden Republicans.

Republicans haven't abandoned AZ. It's mostly McConnell's SLF not wanting to spend because of the negotations with Thiel. I do think Oz gets in before Masters, but a wave probably sweeps them both in and quite possibly gets Walker to 50.

[DaleCooper]

I mean, if this is case, he’s probably fine.

All Rasmussen polls are trash. Oz could be leading in a landslide and Rasmussen would somehow fail to see it. It's best to think of Rasmussen polls as practical jokes.

[Crumpets]

I have no idea what's going to happen in two weeks. Weird poll after weird poll, Dems up in Oklahoma, GOP up in NY, Rasmussen putting out sensible numbers, countless countervailing trends... just a bizarre year for elections.

I saw a theory on Twitter - so you know it's legit - that basically deep blue states don't have to worry as much about abortion laws changing and will have results that look more in line with what we were expecting pre-Dobbs (see NY, OR, and WA) while deep red states are likely to be much more worried about abortion (see KS, AK, and OK) and are set to have a very different midterm than what we would expect from past trends. And that's kind of the only theory I've seen that explains it, but it also doesn't tell us much about how things will shake out in competitive states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I remember everyone freaked out when Wick has Oz leading by 5 that was an overreacting by the Forum

[wbrocks67]

I have no idea what's going to happen in two weeks. Weird poll after weird poll, Dems up in Oklahoma, GOP up in NY, Rasmussen putting out sensible numbers, countless countervailing trends... just a bizarre year for elections.

I saw a theory on Twitter - so you know it's legit - that basically deep blue states don't have to worry as much about abortion laws changing and will have results that look more in line with what we were expecting pre-Dobbs (see NY, OR, and WA) while deep red states are likely to be much more worried about abortion (see KS, AK, and OK) and are set to have a very different midterm than what we would expect from past trends. And that's kind of the only theory I've seen that explains it, but it also doesn't tell us much about how things will shake out in competitive states.

Could be, or it's possible there is severe nonresponse bias in blue states, for whatever reason, judging from NY