Change in Total Turnout, 2012-16 (user search)
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  Change in Total Turnout, 2012-16 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Change in Total Turnout, 2012-16  (Read 4136 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,807


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

« on: December 19, 2016, 07:03:57 PM »

Percent change in total vote, 2012-16:
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,807


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2016, 10:10:50 AM »


Looking at the difference in turnout levels between Oregon and Washington states, the only logical conclusion that I can draw is that automatic voter DMV registration actually does have a major impact in people registered and turning out to vote....

Am I missing something here?

Oregon also has stronger population growth than WA.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,807


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2016, 10:27:03 AM »

Mississippi's also been losing population, especially in the Delta.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,807


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2016, 10:41:00 AM »
« Edited: December 22, 2016, 10:44:15 AM by realisticidealist »


Looking at the difference in turnout levels between Oregon and Washington states, the only logical conclusion that I can draw is that automatic voter DMV registration actually does have a major impact in people registered and turning out to vote....

Am I missing something here?

Oregon also has stronger population growth than WA.

Nope. WA has way higher population growth than OR ...

Really? I could've sworn it was the other way around. I'm at a loss then.

EDIT: Since 2012, WA's grown at 5.7% while Oregon's grown at 5.0%, though I imagine the Bend area's quite higher than that.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,807


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2016, 12:13:17 PM »
« Edited: December 23, 2016, 12:39:05 PM by realisticidealist »

I'll add this info to your discussion. I have finished analyzing the number of votes cast in my region - St. Louis City and County.
I live in the 1st Congressional District. The population, according to 2010 census, is roughly 50% and 47% white. In the 2012 election, I have counted 351,065 votes cast for President; 79.87% of that for Obama, 18.89% for Romney, and 1.24% for others (Johnson and Goode). But in 2016, the number of votes cast, according to my count, is 320,559. That's a drop of 8.6%. Clinton got 76.81%, Trump got 18.76%, and 4.43% were for the others (Johnson, Stein, Castle, and write-ins). The drop in the number of votes cast for the Dems was almost 34,000; the drop in the number of votes cast for GOP was about 6,000; and the increase in the number of votes cast for others was about 10,000.
Within St. Louis City and County, I have also been calculating the presidential votes within each State Representative District, of which there are about 36. Districts 67, 68, 73-79, and 84-86 are the ones that are predominantly black. Those 12 districts are adjacent to one another, and collectively that region is 70% black. That's were the vast majority of the decline in voter turnout occurred. I calculated that in 2012, those 12 district cast almost 210,000 votes. But in 2016, the number declined to a little over 182,000 votes -- a drop of 13.2%. There was a decline in the white-majority State Representative Districts with the 1st Congress District too, but no where near as drastic.
I'm sure there is some population decline occurring -- out-migration -- but it surely is not as high as 13.2% in just four years.

To add to this, much of the decline in black turnout was among younger black voters:



Also, there's this from the article:
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