Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Oryxslayer]

I recall some Virginia insider in the know was predicting a Northam landslide in the early morning based on turnout, then by the afternoon was saying things were neck in neck. I never trust what these people say. Just find out when the votes are counted.

I tend to hold the same opinion, but Ralston is the exception that proves the rule. I don't think he has got a call wrong in recent history, and he is trying to project a swing state with a history of horrible polling. If there is ever a guru, its him.

[Oryxslayer]

First day of early voting here in Volusia County:

3,068   Republicans
2,774       Democrats
1,344       NPA/OTHER

Total: 7,186

Mail-in ballots:
25,192          Republicans
21,338          Democrats
11,772          NPA/OTHER

Total: 58,302

Dang, for a county trending R like Volusia, that's pretty good.

In 2000, Volusia was one of the Democratic counties that Gore wanted to have recounted. Why is Volusia trending Republican?

FL as you know is Gods waiting room. The dem base in the county was Urban Whites/Minorities in Deltona, WWC's in the in the scattered towns, and dem leaning retirees from the glory days of the New Deal Coalition. Trump flipped some of the WWC, and the retirees are...dead. So the county still has a registered dem base, but its shrinking towards the urban whites and Minorities in Deltona and and a few other communities.

[Oryxslayer]

Any one else watching the early vote numbers come in nearly real time on several Florida county websites? More addictive than watching a NYT poll  The excitement of my afternoon was watching Democrats take the lead in total returns in Duval County.

There's a lot of DINOs in Duval, unfortunately. It has a D+4 registration advantage but always votes Republican unless Dems are doing REALLY well (like Nelson 2012, for instance). Even Obama lost it in 2008.

I think its less DINOs and more demographics. More Conservative White NPA's here in contrast to the AAs which a deep blue by Party ID.

[Oryxslayer]

What is the early voting pattern for AZ? Is it like NV, with early vote for Ds coming in on the weekend, or is there a quirk to it like Rs flooding in near the end?

Not every registered R in AZ is a Pub voter, check the 20% gap between Pub early voter advantage and the end results in the Arizona special early in 2018. Especially since E-Day voting isn't all that meaningful. Its an area where change is happening faster then ID change.

[Oryxslayer]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

Again, you don't know how people are voting. Or how Indies are voting.

This is very much true. I saw a article somewhere saying that 7% of Republicans support Sinema, compared to 4% of Democrats who are backing McSally. And that Sinema is leading among independents something like 58-32%. Such numbers point to a narrow (~2-4 pt.) Sinema victory.

So it's not that Democrats are staying home. Its whether moderate/libertarian Republicans  come home or Independents get cold feet.

Exactly. And I don't think McSally can erase that kind of deficit with independents at this point. As for the Republican base in Arizona, they have never been enthused with McSally as their nominee, and of course, you have the more moderate ones who disapprove of Trump, who like Sinema's centrism, and who may have been turned off by McSally's recent flip-flopping on the issues. These factors are why I believe Sinema will win on Tuesday.

The bigger thing is that PID is lagging behind voting in some parts of AZ, so there are a few voters with a pub ID who vote dem now. Of course I will cite the special election with a ten point gap between registration and results, but also the NYT poll which found Sinema winning >15% of Reps.

[Oryxslayer]

I read on twitter, some polling stations in parts of Florida panhandle are open today, is that true ?

Untrue. Early voting is over.

You're wrong. They extended early voting in certain Panhandle counties due to the hurricane and the delay in being able to send in absentee ballots.

Ah, ok. My mistake. What counties?

Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and Jackson

Which means what EV we get today will probably be an uninformative wash since half the voters there are Dixiecrats.

[Oryxslayer]

^ It could be the Taylor Swift effect. Or because it’s Tennessee’s first competitive statewide race in over a decade.

Same situation in Texas, I have seen a few models out there that say texas turnout might match 2012 at the end of this. Which is great for a midterm. For a state that typically is one of the worst turnout-wise in the nation, it is interesting to see what will happen now that they have a competitive race.

[Oryxslayer]

Last Colorado Update


51% of ballots returned


As of Monday - 2018 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  554,809 (564,488)
Republicans  556,119 (693,983)
Independent 505,496 (491,591)

TOTAL 1,636,971 (2,215,258)

Really curious how Colorado will vote this cycle. I was telling someone else last night that the last time CO's House popular vote went for Democrats was in 2008. Every election after that has been a series of small-medium GOP pluralities, even in 2012. They also seem to give a lot of votes to Libertarians and other 3rd parties, so not sure who that hurts more. Suffice to say that CO would be a good place to implement RCV in the future.

As someone else noted CO Indies lean incredibly Left, I recall seeing somewhere that Boulder was only plurality Dem by registration because of the indie numbers.