German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

Only way out is for SDP-Green to accept Linke as an alliance partner, FDP agree to join SDP-Greens, or CDU/CSU-FDP accept AfD as an alliance partner.  I wonder which three is more likely to take place ?

You forgot a CDU/Green coalition which is actually more likely than any of those three IMO.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wahl-o-mat for the Rhineland-Palatinate state election is out:
http://wahlomat.spiegel.de/rp2016w/

My results:
Pirate Party 72.4%
Left 71.1%
SPD 69.7%
Greens 65.8%
CDU 60.5%
Free Voters 59.2%
FDP 51.3%
AfD 40.8%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wahl-o-mat for the Baden-Württemberg state election is out:
https://www9.wahl-o-mat.de/bw2016/main_app.php

Left 84.2%
Greens 80.3%
Pirate Party 76.3%
SPD 76.3%
Free Voters 46.1%
FDP 36.8%
AfD 34.2%
CDU 26.3%

[Middle-aged Europe]

New INSA polls for BW, RP, and ST.

The Kretschmentum helps the Greens in taking the lead in Baden-Württemberg, CDU and SPD are in a close race for 1st place in Rheinland-Palatinate, and the SPD falls behind the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt.

Baden-Württemberg
Greens 30.5%
CDU 30%
SPD 16%
AfD 10%
FDP 7%
Left 3%

Rhineland-Palatinate
CDU 35%
SPD 33%
Greens 9%
AfD 8.5%
FDP 7%
Left 4%

Saxony-Anhalt
CDU 30%
Left 21%
AfD 17%
SPD 16%
Greens 5%
FDP 4%

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^

Possible coalitions with these results:

BW: Greens/CDU, Greens/SPD/FDP, CDU/SPD/FDP.
Both Greens/SPD and CDU/SPD miss a majority very narrowly (Greens would need 0.5% more for that).

RP: CDU/SPD, CDU/Greens/FDP, SPD/Greens/FDP

ST: CDU/SPD

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^

Possible coalitions with these results:

BW: Greens/CDU, Greens/SPD/FDP, CDU/SPD/FDP.
Both Greens/SPD and CDU/SPD miss a majority very narrowly (Greens would need 0.5% more for that).

RP: CDU/SPD, CDU/Greens/FDP, SPD/Greens/FDP

ST: CDU/SPD

Would a revived FDP more receptive to traffic-light coalitions?

They still prefer coalitions with the CDU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lol: Greenie MP Volker Beck has stepped down because the police just found out that he possessed 0.6 gram of crystal meth. Beck was an MP since 1994. He declared that he "has always propagated a liberal drug policy". Okay.

That's actually the second meth head discovered in the Bundestag in two years... the last one was Michael Hartmann (SPD) in 2014.

[Middle-aged Europe]

   Any ideas of who are the leading parties of the other parties getting 7% in Saxony Anhalt?  If a lot of that is to rightist splinter parties, that's even more of a big protest vote.

According to a brand new uniQma poll (whoever that is...) it's the Free Voters with 4%:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Voters

The full poll results for Saxony-Anhalt:
CDU 30%
Left 19%
SPD 18%
AfD 17%
Greens 5%
FDP 4%
Free Voters 4%
NPD 1%
Others 2%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.

I don't give a sh**t whether NPD voters go for the AfD now. You can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) have "asked" the two remaining AfD members in the European Parliament - Beatrix von Storch and Marcus Pretzell - to leave their group by March 31. If they don't, the ECR is gonna vote on expulsing them.

Meanwhile, the NPD has launched a vote-splitting campaign for the upcoming state elections: AfD for the direct candidate, NPD for the party list. Much to the AfD's dismay.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lmao. Merkel might have been pushing Cameron to do so. Not the smartest move, considering the fact that ALFA will probably be gone next time (but maybe the Tories will be gone too...). Well, either Farage or Le Wilders will be delighted by this news.

The Spiegel Online article on the subject implied that the two other German parties within the ECR group (ALFA and the Family Party of Germany) have pushed hard for this.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Why the imminent electoral success of the AfD makes me worry about the future of democracy

I'm in the somewhat unfortunate position that I've got a job where I come in regular contact with AfD supporters/members and have to debate with them. Nowadays it's via mail and Facebook. Fortunately I don't have to do on the phone anymore, because that is a *truly* frustrating experience. The frustrating part is that a very high number of AfD supporters seem to have disconnected themselves from any rational discourse. Trying to win them back for our democracy is a lost cause. That goes along with a affinity for conspiracy theories. These are people who believe that the "mainstream media" is government propaganda and lies to them on a regular basis. At the same time, they regard rumours on the Internet and Russian state media as credible sources. Because they chose only to believe what they want to believe. With worrying frequency I come across reasonings along the lines of "I don't have any proof for that, but I do believe it anyway, because it fits with what I think I know about it". They also seems to be a worrying and increasing correlation between support for the AfD and a admiration for Vladimir Putin and his policies. Some of it is again due to conspiracy theories, some of it is due to plain anti-Americanism (which seems to be rather widespread among AfD supporters), and some if it is because they frankly want to have the same kind of government like they do in Russia. So, what happens with this country if that kind of thinking is not successfully contained, but continues to spread? Could we actually end up with a government like they have in Russia at some point?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Also, it can not be argued that the low turnout in SA (61%) was responsible for the AfD result.

Turnout in Saxony-Anhalt wasn't low. It was at its highest level since the 1998 state election... back then, the right-wing extremist DVU won 13% of the vote. Yes, there is a direct correlation in that state.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Two grand coalitions replace two Red-Green governments. A Red-Green government becomes a Black-Red-Green government. This was actually not that horrible of a night for Merkel.

I think that the CDU losing state elections in two historic (and federally still) CDU strongholds is pretty horrible for the CDU leader. And that the RP SPD are still winning after more than two decades now is a pretty clear indicator that it can't be assumed that things will snap back into place in BaWü in the medium term.

Merkel supporters within the CDU certainly spin the election results as a success for the Chancellor and even some in the media tend to agree with the assessemt.

In both Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, the leaders of the CDU became outspoken critics of Merkel's refugee policies on the campaign trail and moved signficantly to the right, while at the same time Malu Dreyer (SPD/RLP) and Winfried Kretschmann (GRN/BW) endorsed Merkel's policies.

So, the CDU's spin is now: If you distance yourself from Merkel too much, you'll lose.

[Middle-aged Europe]

  Why did the Greens collapse so bad in RP?

likely tactical voting because it was obvious the real question is whether spd or cdu leads the grand coälition

The Greens ran a pretty sh**tty campaign there and were paralyzed by internal struggles between party factions.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Governing coalitions:

Baden-Württemberg - The Greens obviously wanna continue to govern, but don't name a preference. They plan talks with both CDU and SPD/FDP. CDU state leader Guido Wolf says that he wants to try CDU/SPD/FDP, but it's unclear whether this will go anywhere. Editorials have already started to blast him for even thinking about it.

Rhineland-Palatinate - Malu Dreyer wants to do SPD/FDP/Greens, but I guess that's up to the FDP. If they decline, it's gonna be SPD/CDU.

Saxony-Anhalt - It's gonna be CDU/SPD/Greens or bust.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Having grown up in Saxony-Anhalt myself and also having witnessed the DVU's success back in 1998, I'm afraid there's not much behind most AfD voters' line of reasoning than: "Meh, foreigners. What are they doing here? This is Germany! I'm sick and tired of everything, I'm gonna vote AfD."

[Middle-aged Europe]

* The 2011 elections pushed the Greens unnaturally high because they were held right after the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe

Of course. Same is true for Saxony-Anhalt.

* Loan voting for SPD's Gov. Dreyer in her fight with Klöckner

Well, it also may have helped that the SPD looked like they've got their sh**t together... in contrast to the RLP Greens. People vote for parties who have their house in order.

* Some former centrist Greens from the Fukushima-wave election staying home because of the Greens overly pro-refugee positions

I don't see any indication for this. Almost any Green voter is pro-refugee... And second, it didn't hurt the Greens in Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt.

(Sure, the Greens lost votes in Saxony-Anhalt... but aside from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern it's the state where the Greens are traditionally the weakest. Passing the 5% threshold two times in a row there can be considered an accomplisment. And while Winfried Kretschmann is certainly on the more conservative end of the Green spectrum, "conservative" in this case basically means that Kretschmann is supporting Angel Merkel on the refugee issue.)

* No strong frontrunner like Kretschmann in BW

Well, obviously. In addition, the Greens did have a "Doppelspitze" of two lead candidates. That limits the possibilities for a personalized campaign. And again, those two lead candidates were fighting each other during the campaign.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Baden-Württemberg: The SPD has ruled out a coalition with CDU/FDP. Greens will now hold talks with both SPD/FDP and CDU.

Rhineland-Palatinate: The SPD will talk with FDP/Greens. No talks with CDU planned (yet?).

Saxony-Anhalt: The CDU will talk with SPD/Greens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Baden-Württemberg: FDP said no to coalition with Greens/SPD. This leaves Greens/CDU as the only option for a governing coalition in that state.

SPD/FDP/Greens and CDU/SPD/Greens talks will go forward in RLP and ST respectively.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'll ask again but because no one answered. What does the FDP stand for now? Are they still libertarian? Did they move back to being left liberals? Why did they come back in the polls to win seats?

I don't think the FDP's general political position changed that much. What they tried is to be more than just about "lower taxes for everyone!", expanding their portfolia so to speak. It also helps them that their current chairman Christian Lindner is arguably one of the most charismatic politicians around today. And they also seem to profit from protest votes... people who are unable to bring themselves to hold their nose and vote AfD.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Would Kretschmann be a good candidate for Chancellor for a common front Greens/SPD to defeat Merkel?

Not gonna happen.

The Greens will hold a primary-like contest this fall to determine a female and a male lead candidate for the 2017 Bundestag election. Kretschmann is most likely not gonna run though. Candidates so far are the Bundestag caucus leaders Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Anton Hofreiter, Schleswig-Holstein deputy premier Robert Habeck, and (as of now unofficially, but you can assume that he'll run) party chairman Cem Özdemir.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Former foreign minister (2009-13) and longtime FDP chairman (2001-11) Guido Westerwelle died today, aged 54.

Shortly after leaving office, he had been diagnosed with leukemia and was struggling with it ever since. While I was not a huge a fan of him politically, that was a pretty cruel fate he suffered.

He'll be remembered for being largely reponsible for both the FDP biggest electoral success and the party's biggest defeat in 2009 and 2013 respectively. He was also the first openly gay foreign minister of Germany.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Former foreign minister (2009-13) and longtime FDP chairman (2001-11) Guido Westerwelle died today, aged 54.

Shortly after leaving office, he had been diagnosed with leukemia and was struggling with it ever since. While I was not a huge a fan of him politically, that was a pretty cruel fate he suffered.

He'll be remembered for being largely reponsible for both the FDP biggest electoral success and the party's biggest defeat in 2009 and 2013 respectively. He was also the first openly gay foreign minister of Germany.

Remarkable in that the entire German political spectrum seems to have come together to hate him for reasons that on the surface at least had nothing to do with his sexuality.

It had nothing to do with his sexuality. It was more of a style-over-substance thing. Simply put, he was great at campgaining, but sucked at governing. Hence 15% in the 2009 election and 5% in the 2013 election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

When youe establish a successful right-wing party, it's pretty much inevitable that you'll find anti-Semites there. Come one, is anyone really surprised? National conservatism and national liberalism always had an anti-Semitic streak in both Germany and Austria, be it in the German Empire/Austria-Hungary, the Weimar Republic/First Austrian Republic, or in the immediate post-war era. Why should it be any different now?

I'd also describe Jörg Meuthen's half-hearted actions as „too little, too late“. You've got a MP who's on the record of describing Muslims as the „external enemy“ and Jews as the „internal enemy of the Christian Occident“. What does Meuthen do at first? Promising to set up a committee whose job is the examine Gedeon's writings and determine whether they are anti-Semitic or not. That's ludicrous.

So, now we have two separate parliamentary groups who both continue to contain card-carrying members of the AfD. Petry would like to make peace between the two groups and merge them again, Meuthen is definitely opposed to this. At the same time, the president of the Baden-Württembergian state parliament has said that it is legally impossible for the same party to maintain two separate parliamentary groups. And while Meuthen and his followers are the ones who officially left the existing AfD parliamentary group they're the ones who also seem to be in continued control of the group's website and social media accounts. Ludicrous.