Canadian Election 2019

[lilTommy]

I'm going with Liberal Minority

[DC Al Fine]

It's tough to say because there's so much polling variation in the non-Liberal left. If the NDP reverses their bleeding to the Greens, the Liberals will have a much harder time getting their majority than if the Greens and NDP both get 10%.

My initial guess: Tories win the popular vote by a hair, but lose the seat count by 15 or so to the Liberals, who form a minority government.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet is out today and has the NDP at only 8.4% federally.

Nanos today has NDP support at 16.6% - go figure

It's strange how some polling firms differe so much for NDP. It's double / half the support. Margin of error for Mainstreet is 2.3% so 10.7% maximum.

Mainstreet 6-8 September, 1876 people, margin 2.3%

LPC⁩ 37.5%
⁦CPC⁩ 34%
⁦Green⁩ 10.8%
⁦NDP⁩ 8.4%
PPC⁩ 4.6%
⁦Bloc⁩ 3.6%

Some partial regional numbers found in Le Soleil newspaper so public.
https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/sondage-mainstreet-legere-avance-liberale-0c5a16de8d2878b84871813a4a537e60⁦

Ontario: PLC 45% CPC 30% Green 10.1 NDP 7.5 PPC 5.4
Quebec: LPC 40% CPC 21% Bloc 16% Green 9.6 NDP 8.8 PPC 4.1
BC: CPC 37% LPC 25% Green 18% NDP 13% PPC 5.1

Conservative leads Alberta and Prairies by more than 25%
NDP 4th in Ontario and BC and 5th in Quebec
The analyst says Liberals gained at the expense of NDP in Ontario and Bloc in Quebec since last month.

Editing my post because there is a link to Mainstreet full results
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/trudeau-liberals-open-up-lead-lpc-38-cpc-34-ndp-8-green-11/

So NDP does worse in Ontario than Quebec and with the margin of error ahead of PPC in Ontario...

[Holmes]

The Liberals have come back from far worse and ended up with majorities in the past. Hell, happened to the OLPC a few times recently, although their fate ended up being not so good.

Trudeau can probably thank Doug Ford for good numbers in Ontario though.

[Poirot]

The Rhinoceros party is running a Maxime Bernier in Beauce against maxime Bernier. Its slogan is Don't take a chance, vote for the two.

The party promises to shorten winter by limiting December and January to 28 days, open fiscal haven in all provinces, bring back magnetic pole to Canada, give new name and new birth date to victims of identity theft, force auto makes to bring more green cars to market: forest green, pale green, khaki green and fluo green. 

[King of Kensington]

Better than the PPC platform.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/JamesLHSprague/status/1171571382179831808

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/robertfife/status/1171612062763683840

Not a great day 0 story for Trudeau.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1171799841032327168

[DC Al Fine]

I saw the Bloc's campaign kickoff speech. The backdrop was this new navy/gold colour scheme. Weird.

[Poirot]

Four Mainstreet riding polls in Quebec. Their Quebec province numbers were LPC 40, CPC 21, BQ 16 and the riding polls as expected with numbers like that show Liberals way ahead.


Trois-Rivières (September 3, 837 people, margin 3.36%)
https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/actualites/sondage-mainstreet-les-liberaux-en-avance-dans-trois-rivieres-e953766c147884e402a0ad87993eb365

LPC 35.9%, CPC 28.2%, BQ 20.2%, Green 5.9%, NDP 5.3%, PPC 2.6%

Scheer starts his campaign in Trois-Rivières, his candidate is the former mayor and a prime target for the party in Quebec. The riding poll doesn't mention local candidates names so notoriety could bring more support. NDP incumbent, between the Conservatives trying to expand territory coming from the east (Quebec City area) and Liberals exapnding from Montreal (west).


Beloeil-Chambly (September 3, 825 people, margin
https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/sondage-mainstreet-pari-risque-pour-blanchet-dans-beloeil-chambly-videos-e3590acd0f9d870eaeaa034a810c5e35
 
LPC 34,6%, BQ 26,1%, CPC 15,2%, Green 9,4%, NDP 8,4%, PPC 5%

Bloc leader chose to run here. NDP won last election a close three way race. The Bloc was third.with 27% so Bloc is stable while Lib and Con up 5%. In the Greater Montreal area along the Richelieu river.  


Louis-Hébert (Sept 3, 864 people, margin 3.33%)
https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/sondage-mainstreet-avance-confortable-pour-lightbound-dans-louis-hebert-25e7132859dbebac7349eed7b06055a4

LPC 39.6%, CPC 19,2%, BQ 18,7%, Green 8,2%, PPC 7%, NDP 5%

This is held by the Liberals in Quebec City but has elected different parties in last elections. Looks like changing pattern and electing an incumbent, I think Léger had CPC leading 35-28 in Quebec City so it's another sign Liberals could at least hold their seats in Quebec City. Still the CPC number is lower than last election. Pollster points to difference is in the PPC number. Maybe the Liberal lead is not as large. In August the government confirmed federal financing for the tramway transit project and studying plan to buy back the old bridge to solve the maintenance issue, both directly affecting the riding.


Sherbrooke (September 3, 850 people, margin 3.36)
https://www.latribune.ca/actualites/politique/le-plc-demarre-loin-devant-dans-sherbrooke-video-1574ab606b1f0f3100449f434c1cde63

LPC 43.8%, BQ 18%, CPC 13,3%, NDP 12%, Green 7,1%, PPC 2,2%

Pollster says incumbement NDP is appreciated but suffering from party and leader performance. The local candidates are not in the pollster questionnaire so he could do better than that. Singh is expected to come here in the weekend to present about his Quebec platform. The provincial riding of Sherbrooke elected Québec Solidaire. There is a university. Might explain the better result for the NDP here than the other riding polls.      

[MaxQue]

I honestly think a poll not naming local candidates is useless and shows the Liberal partisan lean of Quito Maggi.

[adma]

I honestly think a poll not naming local candidates is useless and shows the Liberal partisan lean of Quito Maggi.

Yes, in a way I do wonder how many people polled in Beloeil-Chambly were aware the Bloc leader's running there.  (Though if it weren't for him, I *could* see the seat going Liberal, as part of a "greater Montreal" effect.)

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/1171963003920670720

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/TondaMacC/status/1172000459558535168

[King of Kensington]

Looks like the Cons are running a Christian conservative pro-life activist in York Centre.  Pretty sure Michael Levitt will hang on.  Knocks it off at the top of "most likely TO seats to go Conservative" list (I think it's Scarborough-Agincourt).

https://twitter.com/Carolyn_Bennett/status/1172121813977042946

[lilTommy]

Looks like the Cons are running a Christian conservative pro-life activist in York Centre.  Pretty sure Michael Levitt will hang on.  Knocks it off at the top of "most likely TO seats to go Conservative" list (I think it's Scarborough-Agincourt).

https://twitter.com/Carolyn_Bennett/status/1172121813977042946

Ya, that won't really work in TO... knock off a few points for the CPC. Ya, Scarborough-Agincourt the CPC pulled in 40% in the 2017 by-election. You then have to look at Etobicoke Centre and Don Valley North and Don Valley West as the next top targets I think  (probably less so Don Valley West, even though it is wealthier, I Think Oliphant is a more high profile incumbent)

[Thomas D]

Does anyone else get a bunch of Trump ads on the 338 site?

Anyway, my early Prediction:

LIB- 161
CON- 147
NDP-13
Other- 17

[King of Kensington]

Ya, that won't really work in TO... knock off a few points for the CPC. Ya, Scarborough-Agincourt the CPC pulled in 40% in the 2017 by-election. You then have to look at Etobicoke Centre and Don Valley North and Don Valley West as the next top targets I think  (probably less so Don Valley West, even though it is wealthier, I Think Oliphant is a more high profile incumbent)

Scarborough-Agincourt is clearly the seat where the Conservatives are most likely to win a seat.  Ironically it was one of two Liberal holdouts in 2011 due to the popularity of the very conservative Jim Karygiannis and the weakness of the NDP there.  

The main fault line in Scarborough politics, as adma has pointed out, is "Chinese" vs. "non-Chinese" Scarborough.  That was very evident in the provincial election where the PCs cracked 50% in Agincourt and Scarborough North but were held below 40% in the other ridings.  It'll be interesting to see if Scarborough North comes in at a clear #2 for Conservative vote in Scarborough.  It is heavily Chinese but has countervailing tendencies in its eastern half that Agincourt lacks.  

[adma]

Looks like the Cons are running a Christian conservative pro-life activist in York Centre.  Pretty sure Michael Levitt will hang on.  Knocks it off at the top of "most likely TO seats to go Conservative" list (I think it's Scarborough-Agincourt).

https://twitter.com/Carolyn_Bennett/status/1172121813977042946

Ya, that won't really work in TO... knock off a few points for the CPC. Ya, Scarborough-Agincourt the CPC pulled in 40% in the 2017 by-election. You then have to look at Etobicoke Centre and Don Valley North and Don Valley West as the next top targets I think  (probably less so Don Valley West, even though it is wealthier, I Think Oliphant is a more high profile incumbent)

What's even more boneheaded is that York Centre's recent Conservative trending has been Jewish-based; and for that particular demo, these kinds of socon antics are beside the point.

As for Etobicoke Centre and Don Valley West: those two only barely went Con in 2011, and overperformed for the provincial Libs in 2018 (albeit boosted for obvious reasons in the latter case).  Their affluence is more of a "Liberals are the new Progressive Conservatives" sort.

[lilTommy]

Ya, that won't really work in TO... knock off a few points for the CPC. Ya, Scarborough-Agincourt the CPC pulled in 40% in the 2017 by-election. You then have to look at Etobicoke Centre and Don Valley North and Don Valley West as the next top targets I think  (probably less so Don Valley West, even though it is wealthier, I Think Oliphant is a more high profile incumbent)

Scarborough-Agincourt is clearly the seat where the Conservatives are most likely to win a seat.  Ironically it was one of two Liberal holdouts in 2011 due to the popularity of the very conservative Jim Karygiannis and the weakness of the NDP there.  

The main fault line in Scarborough politics, as adma has pointed out, is "Chinese" vs. "non-Chinese" Scarborough.  That was very evident in the provincial election where the PCs cracked 50% in Agincourt and Scarborough North but were held below 40% in the other ridings.  It'll be interesting to see if Scarborough North comes in at a clear #2 for Conservative vote in Scarborough.  It is heavily Chinese but has countervailing tendencies in its eastern half that Agincourt lacks.  

I'm getting the sense that Toronto's suburbs are looking more like the Vancouver ones, in terms of ethnic voting trends. Chinese communities leaning more conservative while the South Asian community leaning more progressive (Liberal and or NDP)

[lilTommy]

Also, Leaders debate, my take:

Scheer -> calm, but bland and boringly so. Spoke well and hit his points, but got caught a numbers of times in fights he just couldn't handle and effectively said he'd prioritize cuts over balanced budgets (not a big surprise but still). Didn't "win" or gain anything, but also didn't lose anything.

May -> loaded with info, a fountain of facts, but she came across and condescending at times and arrogant others. But also very knowledgeable and spoke clearly to points. But outright lied when caught by Singh around recent revelations about the Greens (abortion, sovereignty, propping CPC up, she said "that's a lie", but they aren't). Solid performance, but not a win. 

Singh -> cool and calm, spoke to people and about people, the most personable. But should have delved deeper into policies, I felt he was lacking on some detail. Went right after Scheer and Trudeau, even May, but nailed Scheer with a few jabs he was not expecting (around Trump in particular). Moderators were all united here, this was Singh's to claim as a win, and performed better then expected.

Trudeau -> didn't even show, so be default he was defined by how everyone else painted him, honestly the clear loser here. But, he does have one advantage, he just saw a bit of his competition and likely took notes.

Of Note, arguably in 2015 the Macleans debate was where Trudeau's performance helped turn the momentum towards him. I can see some of that going to both Singh and Scheer even.

[DC Al Fine]

Does anyone else get a bunch of Trump ads on the 338 site?

Anyway, my early Prediction:

LIB- 161
CON- 147
NDP-13
Other- 17

Nope. Trump probably isn't paying for Canadian IP addresses to see his ads. What's your breakdown for Other?

Looks like the Cons are running a Christian conservative pro-life activist in York Centre.  Pretty sure Michael Levitt will hang on.  Knocks it off at the top of "most likely TO seats to go Conservative" list (I think it's Scarborough-Agincourt).

https://twitter.com/Carolyn_Bennett/status/1172121813977042946

Ya, that won't really work in TO... knock off a few points for the CPC. Ya, Scarborough-Agincourt the CPC pulled in 40% in the 2017 by-election. You then have to look at Etobicoke Centre and Don Valley North and Don Valley West as the next top targets I think  (probably less so Don Valley West, even though it is wealthier, I Think Oliphant is a more high profile incumbent)

What's even more boneheaded is that York Centre's recent Conservative trending has been Jewish-based; and for that particular demo, these kinds of socon antics are beside the point.

York Centre was a contested nomination, which complicates things for the Tories. The pro-life movement, while small and unpopular with the media, is a reasonably large portion of the Tories' voter and donor base, as well as a large source for foot soldiers in campaigns, such that if a significant portion of them left, it would be devastating to Scheer's candidacy. They also seem to be getting increasingly cranky since late in Harper's leadership about how the party is treating them, and my contacts have noticed some grumbling that they might be better off with the PPC.

With that in mind, Scheer is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It's not like the Scheer handpicked this woman for York Centre, and not signing a pro-life nomination winner's nomination papers is the sort of thing that might get socons to revolt, so I'm not sure I'd call it boneheaded.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, Leaders debate, my take:

Scheer -> calm, but bland and boringly so. Spoke well and hit his points, but got caught a numbers of times in fights he just couldn't handle and effectively said he'd prioritize cuts over balanced budgets (not a big surprise but still). Didn't "win" or gain anything, but also didn't lose anything.

May -> loaded with info, a fountain of facts, but she came across and condescending at times and arrogant others. But also very knowledgeable and spoke clearly to points. But outright lied when caught by Singh around recent revelations about the Greens (abortion, sovereignty, propping CPC up, she said "that's a lie", but they aren't). Solid performance, but not a win. 

Singh -> cool and calm, spoke to people and about people, the most personable. But should have delved deeper into policies, I felt he was lacking on some detail. Went right after Scheer and Trudeau, even May, but nailed Scheer with a few jabs he was not expecting (around Trump in particular). Moderators were all united here, this was Singh's to claim as a win, and performed better then expected.

Trudeau -> didn't even show, so be default he was defined by how everyone else painted him, honestly the clear loser here. But, he does have one advantage, he just saw a bit of his competition and likely took notes.

Of Note, arguably in 2015 the Macleans debate was where Trudeau's performance helped turn the momentum towards him. I can see some of that going to both Singh and Scheer even.

Just to add, the main takeaway for those who didn't watch the debate are those photos of the empty podium where Trudeau was supposed to be, and the one of May pretending to shake MIA Trudeau's hand. Could help May and hurt Trudeau.

[King of Kensington]

Singh -> cool and calm, spoke to people and about people, the most personable. But should have delved deeper into policies, I felt he was lacking on some detail. Went right after Scheer and Trudeau, even May, but nailed Scheer with a few jabs he was not expecting (around Trump in particular). Moderators were all united here, this was Singh's to claim as a win, and performed better then expected.

It was good for Singh in that he exceeded the very low expectations of him.