The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Badger]

I would be surprised if Handel made it to the run-off at this point. The reason? Probably the fact that out of the millions spent in ads, she only spent $17,000. It's no surprise.

Jesus. Is Handel THAT bad a fundraiser, or is her campaign staff retarded?

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I'm not sure why so many liberals and Democrats on the Forum are happy over this result. Yes, Cantor was a thorn in the side of any attempts at bipartisanship, even by Boehner, but whoever takes his role can be assured from this election result to be worse.

Any chance of even partial immigration reform has been pushed back at least several years.

On every other issue under the sun, any member of the GOP caucus even dreaming about a bipartisan move towards the sensible center will, more than ever, now fear of being "Cantored" by the far right. (And in a couple weeks, I fear, the Senate GOP caucus will live in terror of being "Cochraned").

Dems can't even be happy over a potential race for this district. Brat may be pretty extreme, but it's a +10 R district. The GOP is going to keep this hands down. At worst we MIGHT have to put a BIT of $ in to ensure a win, and probably only if Brat pulls some Akin-like comments.

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Lankford's lead is relatively uniform across the state at around 50-55%, with Cleveland running up his margins substantially.

Will the long awaited Bradley Effect finally materialize? If it doesn't in a Republican primary in Oklahoma, I doubt it would anywhere.

The Bradley effect is overrated.  The reason Tom Bradley lost his race wasn't racism; it was people lying to pollsters because they didn't want to be seen as racist for not supporting a black candidate.

That's the definition of the Bradley Effect...

All right.  Glad to see that you understand it.

Well, HE does at least.....

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Cochran now only up 53-47 with nearly 20% in.

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Guys, none of the heavily black delta counties have reported anything yet. That is HUGE for Cochran

That's assuming a LOT. They had next to no GOP votes in the primary. We'll have to see if Cochran's attempts to turnout black voters paid dividends here.

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WTF, Hancock County? Seriously???

What's the significance here, Harry? For us non-MS types.

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McDaniel is currently running around 5 points ahead of his past performance in DeSoto.

Any assessment of turnout there?

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HOW THE F*** CAN MCDANIEL WIN HANCOCK COUNTY?

There were 0 buildings left after Katrina. Literally. What. The. F***. I hate all those idiots.

They're simply being rugged individualists, Harry.

And maybe are firmly convinced that, political rhetoric aside, the money will still keep coming for hurricane relief, even if McDaniel votes against it.

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71% in, and OK Dem. Sen. will be a Johnson-Rogers Runoff!

With due respect Wulfric, that really isn't worthy of an exclamation point.

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http://project.wnyc.org/election2014-ny-primary/

In VERY early voting, it appears that Espalliat is romping in Hispanic precincts, non-majority and white precincts are split/tilt-Espalliat, and black precincts going for Rangel. No surprise there, BUT, Michael Wolford is taking a disproportionate share of the vote in black precincts. The end result is Rangel isn't doing as well on his turf as Espalliat is on his. Still early though.

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Yay! Lankford wins! I was worried about this race when a runoff would have just led to a Shannon win and a Republican nomination would have led to a Republican Senator. So even though Lankford is by far one of the worst party-line, hard-line conservatives out there, at least Republicans lost their fuel at an opportunity for another black Senator on their side before 2016 comes around.

What the Christ?

It's not like us Republicans are electing black Republican senators as trophies or anything. Still, the GOP is looking pretty good with a 1/1 split in black senators with the Democrats, considering >90% of African-Americans consistently vote Democratic.

Um, it's that second statistic we kinda need work on.....

[Badger]

Yay! Lankford wins! I was worried about this race when a runoff would have just led to a Shannon win and a Republican nomination would have led to a Republican Senator. So even though Lankford is by far one of the worst party-line, hard-line conservatives out there, at least Republicans lost their fuel at an opportunity for another black Senator on their side before 2016 comes around.

What the Christ?

It's not like us Republicans are electing black Republican senators as trophies or anything. Still, the GOP is looking pretty good with a 1/1 split in black senators with the Democrats, considering >90% of African-Americans consistently vote Democratic.

Um, it's that second statistic we kinda need work on.....

We got 20% of the young black male vote In 2012, so there that's a good sign of things to come.

Um, no.

[Badger]

Yay! Lankford wins! I was worried about this race when a runoff would have just led to a Shannon win and a Republican nomination would have led to a Republican Senator. So even though Lankford is by far one of the worst party-line, hard-line conservatives out there, at least Republicans lost their fuel at an opportunity for another black Senator on their side before 2016 comes around.

What the Christ?

It's not like us Republicans are electing black Republican senators as trophies or anything. Still, the GOP is looking pretty good with a 1/1 split in black senators with the Democrats, considering >90% of African-Americans consistently vote Democratic.

Um, it's that second statistic we kinda need work on.....

We got 20% of the young black male vote In 2012, so there that's a good sign of things to come.

Um, no.

Why is it not :confused:

Let me answer your question with a question: Can you provide a link to your shocking and universally disagreed with premise that one in 5 "young black men" voted for Romney over Obama?

Unless that poll was taken at the Black College Republicans convention, I don't buy it.

[Badger]

Yay! Lankford wins! I was worried about this race when a runoff would have just led to a Shannon win and a Republican nomination would have led to a Republican Senator. So even though Lankford is by far one of the worst party-line, hard-line conservatives out there, at least Republicans lost their fuel at an opportunity for another black Senator on their side before 2016 comes around.

What the Christ?

It's not like us Republicans are electing black Republican senators as trophies or anything. Still, the GOP is looking pretty good with a 1/1 split in black senators with the Democrats, considering >90% of African-Americans consistently vote Democratic.

Um, it's that second statistic we kinda need work on.....

We got 20% of the young black male vote In 2012, so there that's a good sign of things to come.

Um, no.

Why is it not :confused:

Let me answer your question with a question: Can you provide a link to your shocking and universally disagreed with premise that one in 5 "young black men" voted for Romney over Obama?

Unless that poll was taken at the Black College Republicans convention, I don't buy it.

I'm going to step in on this one for Alreet. It looks like the poll I'm citing is from Pew Research:

That statistic is probably true (it looks like Romney won 19% of young black voters), but we're not absolutely sure. I admit, it's also important to remember that young black men are a small subset of the electorate to begin with, so the information that we obtain from polls on this group might not be precise. Still, Pew is a reliable outlet.

Ah, tiny sub-sample MoE. My second guess after pure BS.

Pew is reputable, but anyone who thinks 1 in 5 young black males voted for Romney over Obama is frankly deluded, and our party has enough of those type already.

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Red alert, guys! 94% in, 50.2 to 49.8 in MS! Still a tidge of Jones left. Still some desoto left too.

Vote margin?

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NY-13

23% in
Espaillat- 46.6%
Rangel- 45.7%

Yeah, Harlem districts are coming in, and Rangel is romping. Walrond is doing okay there (relatively), but Espalliat isn't.

Looks like it'll be a home-turf turnout battle.

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Whew! 95%, and back out of recount territory. 50.4 to 49.6. 2,400 vote difference.

There aren't recount laws in MS.

Well, in that case, McDaniel is the sort of person who would take this to court.

Mississippi judges The literate are not a very pro-McDaniel contingency.

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NY-13

36% in

Rangel- 47.4%
Espaillat- 44.7%

Rangel's approx. 300 vote margin is due to 2 adjacent Bronx precincts on the north edge of his district. Lotsa votes and he carried them with close to 90% of the vote. He's not doing that well in black Harlem precincts!

What gives? Do those neighborhoods hate Dominicans or something?

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The tea party is officially dead. You can't win a MISSISSIPPI runoff against a moderate republican? LOL

Please. Most GOP Congresscritters, including most red state senators, are far more scared of a tea party challenge than a Democratic one. Their voting records and unwillingness to compromise now matching the True Believers is the result. The Tea Party (and their de facto allies in the CfG wing of the party) have made most of the GOP caucus TPIABN--Tea Party In All But Name.

Chuckling out loud at the description of Cochran as "a moderate". He's an arch-conservative in all but a patrician reserved non-fire breathing style (the last work being key), and addiction to greater than usual fondness for local pork spending.

[Badger]

Rangel's approx. 300 vote margin is due to 2 adjacent Bronx precincts on the north edge of his district. Lotsa votes and he carried them with close to 90% of the vote. He's not doing that well in black Harlem precincts!

What gives? Do those neighborhoods hate Dominicans or something?

I think you're talking about Tracy Towers in the Bronx, which is a middle-income subsidized housing development.  I'd have to check the census to be sure, but I think it's heavily African-American.  This article says it has a large Ghanian population.

Thanks Cinyc. Could be re: the Ghanans, though the heart of "Little Ghana" is about 30 blocks south. One of the precincts appears to include Clinton DeWitt High School which is Rangel's alma mater, fwiw (though he dropped out his junior year). The school website actually lists a majority of students as being of Hispanic origin, and only a bit over one-third as black.

I too assume the precincts are heavily African-American based on the results. I'm just trying to decipher why this neighborhood would be Rangel's strongest, even compared to most black Harlem precincts. Maybe it was one of the heaviest A-A precincts outside Harlem, and thus Walrond syphoned away few votes since he wasn't known there? But even then Espaillat did downright lousy getting about 5% of the vote in these precincts. Maybe it is the Ghanan thing. Has anyone heard of Rangel having strong ties to their community?

EDIT: Maybe I should've read the article you linked before posting. Yeah, that's Tracey Towers neighborhood alright, and from what I've read recently about their community, the share of Ghanans living there has probably grown heavily even since the article was written.

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So will Mississippi introduce party registration that can't be changed during a runoff period so as to keep Democrats from messing with future Republican primaries?  That seems like an obvious revenge move for the Tea Partiers to push for.

Considering most MS GOP legislators, and certainly their leadership, backed Cochran, I seriously doubt it.

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Fascinating maps! And those two precincts look like they should support Schatz as well (or at worst go to Hanabusa by a very tiny margin).

Are my eyes playing tricks, or is there a tiny sliver of a red red precinct on the west border of the northernmost gray precinct?