Right-Wing Populist World Leaders Worried That if Trump Goes, They Will Go Too

[Frodo]

Why populist world leaders are fearing a Trump election loss

The upcoming U.S. election is being keenly watched by world leaders who have looked to President Donald Trump for favor and friendship, and who share his political ethos.

If he fails at the election, political experts believe other leaders who espouse similarly populist politics — from Matteo Salvini, who leads Italy’s anti-immigration Lega party, to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi — could see their own political fortunes change, and that a populist surge that swept such radical and anti-establishment leaders to power across the world, including Trump, could wane.

“Trump, as the populist leader of the world’s only superpower, is the greatest populist ally one could have, and so his possible defeat in the November presidential election will certainly be a massive blow to populist governments around the world that rely on either overt or tacit support by the Trump administration,” Erin Kristin Jenne, professor of International Relations at Central European University in Vienna, told CNBC.

“Populist leaders seek to alter their country’s status in the international order by challenging systemic constraints, and they need allies to do this,” she added.

[CumbrianLefty]

If true, maybe the best reason yet for supporting Biden

[parochial boy]

I somehow don't think people in India or Italy are just going to stop supporting Modi or Salvini just because Trump loses. I mean, this typically isn't how or why people decide who to vote for...

Or in other words, there were populist parties doing well before Trump, and there will continue to be ones doing well after him - trying to tie everything together into a neat global trend is lazy journalism.

[Agonized-Statism]

Yeah, okay. Neoliberalism is still failing people. They're going to keep turning to alternatives on the right and left. They'll say Trump wasn't a real right-wing populist, which is believable given that he achieved none of his stated objectives.

[Saruku]

Lol. Biden will give just as much material support to those governments as Trump has, and the liberal pearl-clutching over strongman leaders with superficial similarities to Trump will disappear outside of extremely niche spaces (like this one). After all, Bolsonaro and Modi were huge gets for the West.

[Red Velvet]

Lol. Biden will give just as much material support to those governments as Trump has, and the liberal pearl-clutching over strongman leaders with superficial similarities to Trump will disappear outside of extremely niche spaces (like this one). After all, Bolsonaro and Modi were huge gets for the West.

I don’t think it has anything to do regarding US support though, it’s about weakening these leaders in their own country because of the loss of a political narrative. Not everything has to do with international interference from US lol

Example from what I see here: Trump is the only ally Bolsonaro has ideologically. Bolsonaro has antagonized pretty much everyone, from old traditional Brazilian allies like the President of Argentina (who Bolsonaro calls “communist”) to Western European leaders, President of France (and his wife) being the most extreme case of people Bolsonaro publicly offended there, as he thinks Europe is too leftist and environmentalist-crazy. China still has influence because you can’t cut them off because of economy matters but the Brazilian foreign policy team managed to anger them too at some point.

That means Brazil has mostly isolated itself in the last 2 years from its Latin American allies and also potential European partners, as EU-Mercosur deal was supposed to be a thing a while ago. Places Brazil foreign policy is friendly with? USA, Israel, Hungary, Saudi Arabia, etc. It is due to pure ideological association. Trump is the guy Bolsonaro likes to associate himself with, internationally but especially domestically.

That means if Trump is humiliated by losing reelection and being a one term president, the message that goes across is that not only him, but what he represents, failed and got rejected. But beyond that, Bolsonaro would be totally isolated internationally with no powerful big ideological ally. Meaning he would be forced to change his foreign policy and rhetoric or contribute for the country becoming more isolated, which would bring bad consequences domestically from an economic perspective and potentially make the Brazilian elites that elected him and still support him in order to not let the left return, withdraw their support because they would be affected. Biden already played with the idea of sanctioning Brazil because of rainforest fires and even though it’s a dumb and disrespectful idea, you could see that Bolsonaro got pressed by the suggestion. Because he knows that if Trump loses, he’ll need to adapt to a less “extremist” agenda or rhetoric.

Sometimes things happen on domino effect, much of Latin America politics can be described by different periods, from repressive governments in the 70s to the pink wave of leftist governments in the 00s. Considering Trump is the poster boy globally for the Alt-right movement, I don’t doubt his downfall could weaken others similar to him although the movement itself won’t necessarily “die” because of this.

[Cassius]

Yes, because the whole world revolves around the American political system.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Modi, Netanyahu, and Johnson's fates will rise and fall based on their own country's issues, and all of them (save maybe Johnson) are in a relatively strong position at the moment. As for Bolsonaro, his country seems to be falling apart under the current crisis due to his mismanagement, and the only real way he's likely to be able to maintain power is through an Autogolpe - whoever is the US President at the time.

[Edu]

As for Bolsonaro, his country seems to be falling apart under the current crisis due to his mismanagement, and the only real way he's likely to be able to maintain power is through an Autogolpe - whoever is the US President at the time.

He's having his best approval ratings since mid last year. Is something else happening that I missed?

[Battista Minola 1616]

1. Exhibit no. 7374839 the word "populist" has lost any meaning.

2. Matteo Salvini's political fortunes have already changed, have been in decline for some time now, and Lega has not even been in government for more than one year. But sure, he is the first example of a populist leader in power. Lmao

3. What parochial boy said.

[Red Velvet]

As for Bolsonaro, his country seems to be falling apart under the current crisis due to his mismanagement, and the only real way he's likely to be able to maintain power is through an Autogolpe - whoever is the US President at the time.

He's having his best approval ratings since mid last year. Is something else happening that I missed?

Not much, he has gotten stable because he’s catering to the Brazilian establishment powers and abandoning his “anti-system” base in order to get congress support to survive politically and to not have his sons jailed (they’re being investigated by Supreme Court for lots of crimes).

Any threat of a “self-coup” was abandoned since mid-June. He tried to get military support to close the Supreme Court but they refused lol, so he needs to be nice to congress and the judiciary in order to save him and his family. Military superficially is on his side only for the sake of having access to power since he filled them with prestigious public positions but they HATE the way he handles the government and private conversations between them are about having an alternative to Bolsonaro in 2022.

There is no current threat of “self-coup” and Bolsonaro ratings are stable for now due to the financial COVID help the poor are getting, which puts them on his side. That financial help diminished this month though and will only last until December, which could angry some people since no one likes to have stuff “taken away” from them... So it’s an uncertain future for Bolsonaro, he could both be re-elected in 2022 or even not finish his term if his base or current allies turn their backs at him. He won’t try anything radical against democratic institutions out of fear of retaliation against his sons though.

Overall, it’s been quite impressive how the Supreme Court has managed to be such a powerful adversary of Bolsonaro and mostly won the battle, managing to control his more anti-democratic impulses and even influencing his positions, such as the new minister for the supreme court not being the radical conservative that Bolsonaro supporters wanted, but someone who has dialogue with the congress and judiciary.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, okay. Neoliberalism is still failing people. They're going to keep turning to alternatives on the right and left. They'll say Trump wasn't a real right-wing populist, which is believable given that he achieved none of his stated objectives.

The best thing one can hope for as a result of the Trump presidency is that populists will have to make a stronger case in the future how they will govern in an effective and competent manner once elected. I mean we already saw former/nominal Trump supporters saying: While I still agree with his political goals he was just a sh**tty president at the end of the day. So in a sense Trump could make things harder for populists, although that doesn't necessarily mean that they'll always fail to win elections now.

[TheTide]

Just months after Trump's election, Macron won, the VVD emerged as the largest party in the Netherlands again, Theresa May lost the Tory majority on a "right-populist" platform...

Trump isn't popular in many places, even amongst supporters of various parties that have adopted a vaguely similar approach to his in recent years.

[Samof94]

Modi, Netanyahu, and Johnson's fates will rise and fall based on their own country's issues, and all of them (save maybe Johnson) are in a relatively strong position at the moment. As for Bolsonaro, his country seems to be falling apart under the current crisis due to his mismanagement, and the only real way he's likely to be able to maintain power is through an Autogolpe - whoever is the US President at the time.

Where is the Philippines in all of this?

[Estrella]

In mamy countries, there was a feeling that right-wing populists are unstoppable but – huge shocker – they're politicians like all the others. Sometimes they are popular, sometimes they aren't.

[Agonized-Statism]

Yeah, okay. Neoliberalism is still failing people. They're going to keep turning to alternatives on the right and left. They'll say Trump wasn't a real right-wing populist, which is believable given that he achieved none of his stated objectives.

The best thing one can hope for as a result of the Trump presidency is that populists will have to make a stronger case in the future how they will govern in an effective and competent manner once elected. I mean we already saw former/nominal Trump supporters saying: While I still agree with his political goals he was just a sh**tty president at the end of the day. So in a sense Trump could make things harder for populists, although that doesn't necessarily mean that they'll always fail to win elections now.

Already happening it seems. If you check places like 4chan, a lot of his movement has seen him as a grifter since the missile strikes in Syria and has been advocating for someone like Tucker or Hawley to take his place. Those are a lot of the younger people, of course- he still has the confused QAnon boomers, which are the more vocal and represented group, so the drain in popularity has been somewhat invisible. The younger people that are voting for him, who haven't flipped Biden or Jorgensen like Richard Spencer, seem to be doing it out of lesser evilism. I actually disagree with the supporters who left on their argument that he's a neocon- Trump's role in the peace process in Korea, the withdrawal from Syria, and his decision not to attack Iran (yet) is the one and only thing I commend him on as a non-supporter. But like I said, he did fail his supporters on everything else, so it's fair not to call him a populist. When he loses, IMO, they'll disavow him. But right now, like the Democrats, they're in end-of-the-world, lesser evil mode.

To prognosticate, I think the populists will rally behind Hawley. He's more of a blank slate than the other candidates and surely a better sell to Heartlanders than a loud-mouthed New York billionaire. Will he win? I say it honestly depends on the rate of economic recovery, however much that has to do with the Biden administration. Same goes for elections around the world.

[CumbrianLefty]

Just months after Trump's election, Macron won, the VVD emerged as the largest party in the Netherlands again, Theresa May lost the Tory majority on a "right-populist" platform...

Trump isn't popular in many places, even amongst supporters of various parties that have adopted a vaguely similar approach to his in recent years.

Macron's win was party a reaction against both Brexit and Trump, of course.

[mgop]

sadly most of european right-wing populist came to power long before trump

[Tender Branson]

sadly most of european right-wing populist came to power long before trump

In our case, they are also gone before him ...

[Samof94]

sadly most of european right-wing populist came to power long before trump

In our case, they are also gone before him ...

I recall you had a right wing politician jailed decades ago for doing a Nazi salute.

[CumbrianLefty]

sadly most of european right-wing populist came to power long before trump

Well the present POTUS himself was the culmination of stuff that was set in train 20-25 years earlier.

[Pick Up the Phone]

While I also don't believe in any sort of domino effect, a Biden landslide would definitely carry some weight. Trump is a symbol for right-wing populists around the globe and symbols do matter.

That being said, right-wing populism is already in retreat in many countries. It's not 2016/17 anymore.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

A problem with this argument is that Trump's right-wing populism is not the only or even main reason he's losing....

[CumbrianLefty]

Well there are various reasons, and I don't think anybody disputes this.

What is does maybe show, however, is that RWP isn't an invincible electoral juggernaut.

[Senator Incitatus]

I doubt it. The factors leading to the rise of national populism are global and economic, not personal. They should have more self-confidence than that (if this story has any legs to stand on). If Trump loses, it will be because of his personality and lack of focus, not because his positions on trade, immigration, or foreign policy suddenly became horribly unpopular. (It will also be partly because he tried to play nice with his enemies in the media and intelligence community out of a pathological need to be liked and admired, which might be common with some other leaders.)

If anything, I'm guessing the continued domination of the United States by global capital under a Biden/Harris administration would lead to an even more massive nationalist backlash in 2024 or 2028—more practiced, more focused, and more prepared to overcome its opposition.