House Results thread

[Democratic Hawk]

Courtney has apparently won CT-02 by 170 votes, the slimmest margin of victory so far.

Simmons was the one I thought would have held on, but a win is a win . Back in 1994, I believe the then Democratic congressmen, Sam Gejdenson, held the seat by 21 votes

So, not only was the CT-02 race closest in 1994, it has a good chance of being the closest of 2006

Dave

[°Leprechaun]

Close races:

This is what I have:

   ct 2          Dem razor thin lead
   ga 8          Dem 1% lead   
   nc 8          very slight R lead   

   nm 1        very slight R lead   
    pa 6         R appears to have won
   pa 8         D appears to have won
   wy           R appears to have won   

Did I miss any?   

[nclib]

CNN still has 13 undecided, though I'm not sure which ones the others are.

Can someone please list the 27 pickups?

[Verily]

CNN still has 13 undecided, though I'm not sure which ones the others are.

The very competitive WA-08 still has only 31% reporting.

The uncalled races:

CT-02 (100% in, D leads very narrowly)*
PA-08 (100% in, D leads)*
PA-06 (100% in, R leads)
OH-15 (100% in, R leads)
OH-02 (100% in, R leads)
NC-08 (100% in, R leads very narrowly)
GA-12 (96% in, D leads)
GA-08 (99% in, D leads)
LA-02 (100% in, going to D v D runoff)
TX-23 (94% in, likely going to R v D runoff)
NM-01 (99% in, R leads)
WY-AL (99% in, R leads very narrowly)
WA-08 (31% in, R leads)

*Dem pickup.

[bullmoose88]

Well..assuming the absentee ballots are in, PA-08 has gone to the dark side.

But have they been counted...if not, this show isn't over.

Show's not over, but it's not looking good for you guys.

PA-6 on the other hand, I'd hold out hope because Chester has yet to be counted.

Do you know if absentee ballots have been counted (shot in the dark here)..?

For PA-6 or PA-8?  Go to CNN and look at county breakdown.  It does not look good fro Fitz.

PA-6 on the other hand there's still a lot in Chester County needing to be counted with Lois up 2.

What I was asking was...is that all ballots counted (yes 100% precincts...) or do absentee ballots get counted say...tomorrow?

I'm assuming its over...and I'm gonna have to live with Murphy...who knows, maybe I'll end up liking him...but if I don't...08 won't come soon enough.

Dude, it's looking like you have Pat Murphy as your Congressman.  I couldn't be any happier!

Except you don't live in my district. That said, I'm willing to give the guy a chance, but I'm leaning Republican for 08 here.

How'd the PA legislature go?

Lots of incumbents falling in the house...GOP looks to hold the Senate...This seems to be mainly due to the pay raise and some rendell/casey coattails.

The Democratic House whip lost his seat to a GOP borough mayor or someone.

CNN still has 13 undecided, though I'm not sure which ones the others are.

The very competitive WA-08 still has only 31% reporting.

The uncalled races:

CT-02 (100% in, D leads very narrowly)*
PA-08 (100% in, D leads)*
PA-06 (100% in, R leads)
OH-15 (100% in, R leads)
OH-02 (100% in, R leads)
NC-08 (100% in, R leads very narrowly)
GA-12 (96% in, D leads)
GA-08 (99% in, D leads)
LA-02 (100% in, going to D v D runoff)
TX-23 (94% in, likely going to R v D runoff)
NM-01 (99% in, R leads)
WY-AL (99% in, R leads very narrowly)
WA-08 (31% in, R leads)

*Dem pickup.

PA-08: Fitzpatrick has not conceeded. I'm wondering if he's waiting for absentee ballots, which may be enough to swing it his way...or a recount...which I think probably wouldn't help much.

[Verily]

Absentees are included in all state totals. Fitzpatrick lost, even if he hasn't conceded. He's down something like 1,500 votes, way too many for a recount. Only the "very narrowly"s could conceiveably have recounts.

[Nym90]

If every candidate who is currently leading in the vote counts ends up winning, and assuming the GOP wins the TX-23 runoff, the new House would be an exact mirror image of the old one--Dem 232, GOP 203.

[Verily]

I suspect Darcy Burner will pull through in WA-08, though. It's irritating that they're being so slow there.

[Nym90]

Any update on the 11 House seats that still haven't been called? Some of them have 100 percent of the precincts reporting, so I assume they are waiting on absentee or provisional ballots? Any possible recounts?

[Sam Spade]

Any update on the 11 House seats that still haven't been called? Some of them have 100 percent of the precincts reporting, so I assume they are waiting on absentee or provisional ballots? Any possible recounts?

Most of them could go either way.  Though I expect few changes just because of the numbers involved.

In WA-08, we won't know for about 2 weeks (WA's strange absentee ballot system), but as Alcon pointed out to me last evening, if Weichert leads going into absentee balloting, he'll win, because those ballot are always more GOP than the other ballots.  If he's down by a couple, we'll just have to wait.

[Verily]

GA-08 and PA-06 have been called for the Dems and GOP, respectively.

[Nym90]

GA-08 and PA-06 have been called for the Dems and GOP, respectively.

Ah, yes, I see that.

So that leaves the following undecided:

CT-02
GA-12
NC-08
NM-01
OH-2
OH-15
PA-08
WA-08
WY-AL

[Sam Spade]

I suspect that PA-08 and GA-12 stay with the dems.  The two OH CDs go to the GOP. 

Cubin probably ends up a few hundred votes ahead in WY-AL and probably stays there.  NC-08 and CT-02 will come down to recount, but probably stay where they are.

NM-01 will probably be won by Wilson, but you never can say for sure because the NM Dems have ways of "finding" uncounted votes to push their candidate over the top.

[bullmoose88]

I suspect that PA-08 and GA-12 stay with the dems.  The two OH CDs go to the GOP. 

Pretty safe bet on PA-08...any news of a recount (which will likely not put fitz over the hump)...

[Sam Spade]

I suspect that PA-08 and GA-12 stay with the dems.  The two OH CDs go to the GOP. 

Pretty safe bet on PA-08...any news of a recount (which will likely not put fitz over the hump)...

I meant to ask you this:  So how did Gerlach survive in your opinion?  When the cycle began a couple of years, he was considered by most experts to be the Republican House incumbent most in danger of losing.  Now, he's one of the few that survived.  What's your explanation?

[okstate]

So LA-02 and TX-23 are going to runoffs, where it looks like Bonilla will win and LA-02 will at least be Democratic.

I think Reichert will survive in WA-08, and the Dems will in GA-12.

OH-02 and OH-15 should stay GOP, I would think. Is there going to be a recount there or what? I think Pryce and Schmidt won more easily than some other contested races out there.

Leaving

CT-02
NC-08
NM-01
PA-08
WY-AL

Where Dems look to take 3 and the GOP the other two. By my count that should be a net Dem gain of 31 seats.

[Sam Spade]

So LA-02 and TX-23 are going to runoffs, where it looks like Bonilla will win and LA-02 will at least be Democratic.

I think Reichert will survive in WA-08, and the Dems will in GA-12.

OH-02 and OH-15 should stay GOP, I would think. Is there going to be a recount there or what? I think Pryce and Schmidt won more easily than some other contested races out there.

Leaving

CT-02
NC-08
NM-01
PA-08
WY-AL

Where Dems look to take 3 and the GOP the other two. By my count that should be a net Dem gain of 31 seats.

I personally think it'll fall along the 3 GOP, 2 Dem lines the results show now, but this is a minor quibble.  30 as a benchmark seems about right.

[okstate]

So LA-02 and TX-23 are going to runoffs, where it looks like Bonilla will win and LA-02 will at least be Democratic.

I think Reichert will survive in WA-08, and the Dems will in GA-12.

OH-02 and OH-15 should stay GOP, I would think. Is there going to be a recount there or what? I think Pryce and Schmidt won more easily than some other contested races out there.

Leaving

CT-02
NC-08
NM-01
PA-08
WY-AL

Where Dems look to take 3 and the GOP the other two. By my count that should be a net Dem gain of 31 seats.

I personally think it'll fall along the 3 GOP, 2 Dem lines the results show now, but this is a minor quibble.  30 as a benchmark seems about right.

Oops I got my numbers mixed up. Dems take PA-08 and CT-02, the GOP the other three.

[bullmoose88]

I suspect that PA-08 and GA-12 stay with the dems.  The two OH CDs go to the GOP. 

Pretty safe bet on PA-08...any news of a recount (which will likely not put fitz over the hump)...

I meant to ask you this:  So how did Gerlach survive in your opinion?  When the cycle began a couple of years, he was considered by most experts to be the Republican House incumbent most in danger of losing.  Now, he's one of the few that survived.  What's your explanation?

I don't live in PA-06 (I live in PA 08 obviously given my emotional attachment to its race)...

that said...I think as you've said before the problem in PA wasn't really anti-republican or anti-specific candidate reaction...rather it was an anti Bush reaction...Now a good deal of Gerlach's district sits in Chester County...which is the one Philadelphia collar county to stay Republican at the presidential level...so its got a republican tinge to it even when a conservative runs (I suspect that the philly burbs would likely lean in favor of a guliani/mccain type over anyone, and may be inplay regardless if the dem isn't a bill clinton type)....so he's got a natural advantage.


As I said before, while Weldon went down due to his own incompetence (the FBI investigation also took down some gop chairmen in delaware county)...the other Republican reps were pretty popular and did pretty well on local issues and representing their districts...Iraq sunk Fitzpatrick in a district that is slowly losing its Republican stranglehold...perhaps in a more republican district...Fitz, like Gerlach would have survived.

When the GOP drew this district up...it was designed to be pretty republican, as it has chester and I think some fairly republican parts of Montco (which I imagine they wanted back into district 13 to help the Melissa Browns of the world)...Perhaps the stronger republican nature of the district off set, just enough, the general anti bush mood going on...

Lois Murphy is a loser, she lost in 2004 (its not like she's some defeated incumbent, like a baron hill) coming back to win her seat...

So i'm thinking 2 major things...(Summary because I babble)

1) Gerlach underperformed previously (I can't quite remember how long he's been in the 6th) The 6th was designed in the GOP gerrymander to be pretty republican, unlike the 8th which took on more democratic wards to help the 13th elect a Republican and was thought to be fine because Jim Greenwood was and is a god. Those democratic wards seem to have helped Murphy big time.

2) Lois Murphy likely sucks as a candidate and previously benefited from a presidential election at the top of the ticket. While the dems did tremendously well at the top of the ticket this time, Lois Murphy was not a new exciting candidate.  Had this been her first time running, or had the dems nominated someone else...perhaps they could have capitalized on the anti-bush wave.


Feel free to ask questions if you're confused.

[WMS]

NM-01 will probably be won by Wilson, but you never can say for sure because the NM Dems have ways of "finding" uncounted votes to push their candidate over the top.

Yes, the local NM officials have a rather dubious reputation for crap like that but I am amazed they couldn't invent a thousand or so more imaginary or dead voters this time around

[Sam Spade]

Thanks for the explanation, bullmoose.  If he underperformed, it makes a lot of sense to me, actually.  Repeat opponents sometimes don't sit well either.

NM-01 will probably be won by Wilson, but you never can say for sure because the NM Dems have ways of "finding" uncounted votes to push their candidate over the top.

Yes, the local NM officials have a rather dubious reputation for crap like that but I am amazed they couldn't invent a thousand or so more imaginary or dead voters this time around

I'm with you, though if they can't find it, maybe they either didn't care or maybe they'd look too odd. (though that hasn't stopped them before)

Though, if Wilson does win, I'm going to have to crown her the queen of the swing-district battlers.  It's been quite a long while since I've seen someone run a campaign the way she did, winning a race she shouldn't have won in just a godawful environment.  I know she's had some tough races before, but this one was easily the toughest ever, imo.  Her opponent helped, certainly, that one commercial on Madrid's debate performance was, imo, the best ad of the campaign nationally and one of the better Congressional ads I've ever seen from an effectiveness standpoint.

If she ever ran for higher office, I'd hate to have to run against her.

[WMS]

NM-01 will probably be won by Wilson, but you never can say for sure because the NM Dems have ways of "finding" uncounted votes to push their candidate over the top.

Yes, the local NM officials have a rather dubious reputation for crap like that but I am amazed they couldn't invent a thousand or so more imaginary or dead voters this time around

I'm with you, though if they can't find it, maybe they either didn't care or maybe they'd look too odd. (though that hasn't stopped them before)

Though, if Wilson does win, I'm going to have to crown her the queen of the swing-district battlers.  It's been quite a long while since I've seen someone run a campaign the way she did, winning a race she shouldn't have won in just a godawful environment.  I know she's had some tough races before, but this one was easily the toughest ever, imo.  Her opponent helped, certainly, that one commercial on Madrid's debate performance was, imo, the best ad of the campaign nationally and one of the better Congressional ads I've ever seen from an effectiveness standpoint.

If she ever ran for higher office, I'd hate to have to run against her.

Or, given how badly Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera f***ed up yet another election, maybe they screwed up their attempt to cheat.

Yes, Wilson fought hard for this seat and Madrid sure helped her out. The local Dem hierarchs must be having chest pains right about now something I can well live with. I hope that ad is saved on YouTube or something

Yes, just wait until the national mood swings the right way and she'll pull the trigger on whatever party hack gets vomited forth from Northern New Mexico.

*STILL happy over the Land Commissioner race*

[Sam Spade]

NM-01:
Wilson 102,343
Madrid 100,979

margin = +1,364

[WMS]

NM-01:
Wilson 102,343
Madrid 100,979

margin = +1,364

This race has damn near given me a heart attack for the past day. However, Wilson has been holding firm all of today.

I would dearly love to know exactly where is left to be counted...

[Sam Spade]

Yes, Wilson fought hard for this seat and Madrid sure helped her out. The local Dem hierarchs must be having chest pains right about now something I can well live with. I hope that ad is saved on YouTube or something

I saved the ad on my computer for posterity's sake.