🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

Numbers update; FDP continues to be stuck at 4.9%. A red-green coalition would now have 78 of 142 seats, easily clearing an absolute majority.

[crals]

Would the SPD prefer red-green or a grand coalition?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Would the SPD prefer red-green or a grand coalition?

red-green

[President Johnson]

Would the SPD prefer red-green or a grand coalition?

Red-Green obviously. The already governed between 2013 and 2017.

2017 was a snap election that was triggered less than six months before the regular end of the term after a SPD Green MP switched to the CDU, causing the coalition to lose its one-seat majority.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

First we take out Annie Lööf, now we come for Chrissy Lindner's head. 2022 ain't so bad after all!

[President Johnson]

Another interesting point: This will be the first Red-Green coalition in a large, non-city state ("Flächenland") after the last one lost its majority in the 2017 NRW state election. Only Hamburg has a Red-Green coalition since 2015, all other SPD-led states are either grand coalitions, traffic light, R2G or a Kenya coalition.

[President Johnson]

Numbers update; FDP just dropped to 4.8%. Seems relatively safe now that they're not in. Meanwhile, 146 seats are projected. Red-Green reaching a comfortable majority at 81.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Cottbus mayoral run-off:

Tobias Schick (SPD) 68.6%
Lars Schieske (AfD) 31.4%

Turnout: 55.2%

[If my soul was made of stone]

First we take out Annie Lööf, now we come for Chrissy Lindner's head. 2022 ain't so bad after all!

manifesting extremely negative and wicked energy toward benny gantz. i have spent 12 hours secretly thinking terrible thoughts about benny gantz in the hopes it will cause him grievous or fatal harm. my "benny gantz hate manifestation journal" is now 54 pages in length

(but that would probably just help likud because this is hell world)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

2017 was a snap election that was triggered less than six months before the regular end of the term after a SPD Green MP switched to the CDU, causing the coalition to lose its one-seat majority.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Election turnout: 60.3% (2017: 63.1%)







The three Green constituencies are Lüneburg (an extremely woke and upscale university city), Hannover-Mitte (won by Green top candidate Julia Willie Hamburg), and Göttingen.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Atlas' pinup boy Chistian Lindner said at that press conference that his FDP's sobering election result was a direct consequence of the party's poor performance within the Ampel coalition, which allegedly led the electorate to think that the FDP was a left-wing party... 🤣

No one - literally NO ONE - outside the Atlas bubble, with PUTP leading the way, thinks that the FDP is a left-wing party... 😂

https://twitter.com/NurderK/status/1579153957108473856

[Yeahsayyeah]

Well, it would be better, if it was...

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm just following German politics on the surface, but isn't the actual takeaway for the FDP that voters are dissatisfied with their role in the federal govt not because they're not visible enough, but too visible instead? It's the smallest coalition partner and prevents SPD and Gruene from passing more left-wing or center-left policies. And these 2 parties had respectable showings despite Scholz having medicore approvals it seems. Or is the FDP result just related to state issues?

If I'm not mistaken, FDP was thrown out of the Bundestag after the 2nd Merkel cabinet, so it seems German voters just like them as opposition party and not as governing party?

[DavidB.]

The FDP always prove to be completely ineffective in achieving any of the policies they - claim to - stand for. That's the biggest problem.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I'm just following German politics on the surface, but isn't the actual takeaway for the FDP that voters are dissatisfied with their role in the federal govt not because they're not visible enough, but too visible instead? It's the smallest coalition partner and prevents SPD and Gruene from passing more left-wing or center-left policies. And these 2 parties had respectable showings despite Scholz having medicore approvals it seems. Or is the FDP result just related to state issues?

If I'm not mistaken, FDP was thrown out of the Bundestag after the 2nd Merkel cabinet, so it seems German voters just like them as opposition party and not as governing party?

If you go by exit polls by age the FDP seems to basically hold their newer youngish voters, but lose many of the older black-yellow-camp "loan voters" in the traffic light era. There isn't too much room for (european) liberal financial, budget and economy doctrine in permanent crisis mode. So the black-yellow-camp voters see them as "enablers of left-wing policies" and more leftish voters see them as a "roadblock against progress or getting anything done".

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm just following German politics on the surface, but isn't the actual takeaway for the FDP that voters are dissatisfied with their role in the federal govt not because they're not visible enough, but too visible instead? It's the smallest coalition partner and prevents SPD and Gruene from passing more left-wing or center-left policies. And these 2 parties had respectable showings despite Scholz having medicore approvals it seems. Or is the FDP result just related to state issues?

If I'm not mistaken, FDP was thrown out of the Bundestag after the 2nd Merkel cabinet, so it seems German voters just like them as opposition party and not as governing party?

If you go by exit polls by age the FDP seems to basically hold their newer youngish voters, but lose many of the older black-yellow-camp "loan voters" in the traffic light era. There isn't too much room for (european) liberal financial, budget and economy doctrine in permanent crisis mode. So the black-yellow-camp voters see them as "enablers of left-wing policies" and more leftish voters see them as a "roadblock against progress or getting anything done".

Seems a fair assumption, though CDU obviously failed at gaining much of them. Or they just prevented a further drop.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Many FDP voters of 2017 in Niedersachsen seem to have switched to AfD outright, yesterday, according to voter migration studies.

[JimJamUK]

I'm just following German politics on the surface, but isn't the actual takeaway for the FDP that voters are dissatisfied with their role in the federal govt not because they're not visible enough, but too visible instead? It's the smallest coalition partner and prevents SPD and Gruene from passing more left-wing or center-left policies. And these 2 parties had respectable showings despite Scholz having medicore approvals it seems. Or is the FDP result just related to state issues?

The problem is that most people who vote FDP are right leaning, and they’re currently in a left leaning government. The FDP are not really influencing policy, so people happy with the government vote SPD/Green (and within that group the Greens are reaping most of the benefit, particularly thanks to their clear position on Ukraine). The FDP could make a clearer play for economic/fiscal responsibility, but that’s quite difficult to do in a serious economic crisis.

Specifically in Lower Saxony, the Greens got their national polling bounce (at least compared to 2017) while the SPD benefitted from being in charge of the state government (state incumbency is very useful in Germany) while the CDU were their junior coalition partners which hurt their ability to critique the government. The FDP national unpopularity sunk them.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Many FDP voters of 2017 in Niedersachsen seem to have switched to AfD outright, yesterday, according to voter migration studies.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Many FDP voters of 2017 in Niedersachsen seem to have switched to AfD outright, yesterday, according to voter migration studies.

[palandio]

The thing about the FDP is that its core vote has been below 5% at the federal level for quite some time and in Lower Saxony even more so. There are certain segments of unaffiliated and loosely affiliated voters that gravitate towards the FDP and away from it according to circumstances.

When the FDP is in a "happy" coalition with the CDU and seems close to the 5% threshold, there can be "loan" votes.

When certain right-of-center voters are unhappy with the CDU, they may vote for the FDP. This is at the moment not very common because of the Traffic Lights coalition.

In 2017 in particular the FDP served as a vehicle for many voters for whom the CDU was too much to the left but that couldn't stomach voting for the AfD. It's not surprising that many of these voters have now gone to the AfD.

Recently the FDP has attracted many younger voters, probably because of COVID restrictions, but not only.

When during a meet-up with friends in spring one friend complained about the FDP blocking the continuation of COVID restrictions, another friend replied: "At least one reason why voting FDP was worth it." As far as I know some reasons why he had voted for the FDP (in 2021) originally were fiscal responsibility and preventing Red-Green-Red. In the past he had usually voted Greens and maybe SPD, because of environment, climate and other reasons, but he is more on the "Realo" side of course.

A group from whom the FDP should be careful to take advice is people who are not at all close to the FDP. It's clear that as long as the FDP stays in the Traffic Light coalition and the CDU/CSU is in opposition many of the old right-of-center swing voters won't come back and may not come back even after that, so just shifting to a traditional right-liberal position won't save it for the FDP at the moment. At the same time the FDP should ask itself what are its unique selling points towards people who are in principle ok with a Traffic Light coalition, but prefer a FDP signature. The people that recommend the FDP just supporting the Red-Green agenda are SPD or Green core voters anyway, so they are not relevant in this regard.

Or maybe the FDP is caught between a rock and a hard place anyways and there is no way out for the moment.

[DavidB.]

The FDP should just go all the way on nuclear energy. Twist the SPD and the Greens' arm and don't just keep the current power plants open, but actually open some of the closed ones within one year. It'll cost a lot of money but so did the Energiewende, and I don't buy that it's technically impossible. We're in a continental crisis in which all existing taboos should be rethought. It's the right thing to do and it'll show right-wing voters they still have some balls.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

2017 was a snap election that was triggered less than six months before the regular end of the term after a SPD MP switched to the CDU, causing the coalition to lose its one-seat majority.

2017 was a snap election that was triggered less than six months before the regular end of the term after a SPD Green MP switched to the CDU, causing the coalition to lose its one-seat majority.

Since PJ put me on ignore as he can't stand the truth nor any criticism of his Social Democrats, can you guys tell him, please, that he may correct the mistake in his post? I for myself can't stand that this fake news has gotten a recommendation while my correction hasn't.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Recently the FDP has attracted many younger voters, probably because of COVID restrictions, but not only.

When during a meet-up with friends in spring one friend complained about the FDP blocking the continuation of COVID restrictions, another friend replied: "At least one reason why voting FDP was worth it." As far as I know some reasons why he had voted for the FDP (in 2021) originally were fiscal responsibility and preventing Red-Green-Red. In the past he had usually voted Greens and maybe SPD, because of environment, climate and other reasons, but he is more on the "Realo" side of course.

I think this is really part of their problem: people voted for them in 2021 due to COVID restrictions, and now it's not an issue anymore. Were these voters every truly "theirs"? Can we really say that the FDP "should" have survived the 2021 election in a world without COVID, or was this a fluke?

Let's not forget that for much of 2020, the FDP was polling at or even some times below the 5% threshold. The debacle in Thüringen in February 2020 left an extremely bad taste in many people's mouths regarding the FDP and their reliability as a party of liberalism and visibly impacted their performance in election opinion polling, with three pollsters even showing them below 4%.

They only began increasing in the polls starting in the spring of 2021 when the restrictions dragged on forever and the vaccine rollout was botched. COVID is what saved them here. If you look back in the 2021 election thread, we discussed this dynamic specifically, and questioned the durability of these FDP votes. Looks like we got our answer.

A group from whom the FDP should be careful to take advice is people who are not at all close to the FDP. It's clear that as long as the FDP stays in the Traffic Light coalition and the CDU/CSU is in opposition many of the old right-of-center swing voters won't come back and may not come back even after that, so just shifting to a traditional right-liberal position won't save it for the FDP at the moment. At the same time the FDP should ask itself what are its unique selling points towards people who are in principle ok with a Traffic Light coalition, but prefer a FDP signature. The people that recommend the FDP just supporting the Red-Green agenda are SPD or Green core voters anyway, so they are not relevant in this regard.

I am one of those SPD supporters they should be wary of, but I'll try to be objective: the FDP ran on things such as loosening COVID restrictions, modernizing the state, reducing bureaucracy, fiscal discipline, blocking tax increases, and some fluffy education stuff. But they also seemed to play the role of vapid centrist party that picked up a lot of votes from people who were attracted by the image of the party making the state "modern" and Lindner's "rise & grind" hustle-culture image.

• COVID restrictions: here the FDP had an almost-immediate win coming out of the gates. From May of this year onwards, what few COVID restrictions we still have are basically performative, with a handful of remaining restrictions such as masking in public transit and healthcare facilities. Otherwise the pandemic is basically over and the emergency laws regarding this have been greatly modified to give more power to the states, rather than the federal government. So this is a case of a promise being kept.
• Fiscal Discipline: here the FDP is in a tough position. It was reasonable to demand a return to the debt brake starting in 2022 during the 2021 campaign, when it looked like COVID was ending and the world was undergoing a major economic upswing. The election happened in September 2021, but they couldn't have foreseen that Russia would begin throttling gas deliveries in November 2021 and then invade Ukraine in February 2022, setting off the current crisis. But the debt brake and fiscal discipline was one of their key selling points, and they can't really drive it home unless they are accused of pushing Germany into an economic depression. I'm not sure how they manage to resolve this predicament.
• Modernizing the state: this one they haven't really delivered much on, but it's a promise that can still be fulfilled without undermining the coalition agreement and the other points in their platform. The problem is that all of the government's time and attention is getting sucked up by other issues and the FDP is really struggling to get its issues to the forefront. I think the SPD and Greens could make a lot of concessions to the FDP here and allow them to "own" these policy wins to keep the FDP satisfied, but again these issues are relatively minor and de-prioritized give then crisis.
• Reducing bureaucracy: here the FDP actually does have some wins they can point to, but the problem is that these wins are coated in left-wing policies so it's hard for the FDP to "own" these wins without looking like a leftist party. For example, the new unemployment benefits ("citizen's money") reduces the punitive penalties and intrusive checks from the government towards the unemployed that became so hated under Hartz IV, which is an FDP win, but also increases unemployment benefits and thus government spending, and it looks like the SPD is mostly "owning" this issue as they obviously want to drop the anchor of Hartz IV from around their necks. The same thing with the housing benefits expansion: it again streamlines and modernizes the bureaucracy, but also expands government benefits and spending. And again the SPD is mostly "owning" that issue. And again same issue with the nationwide public transit ticket: get rid of the incomprehensible maze of ticket zones, but also increase government spending. There are some more issues in the pipeline like a new transgender law, legalized cannabis, new citizenship law, and an overhaul of the immigration system that could give the FDP some more credibility on civil liberties, but those are also seen as rather niche issues in the grander scheme of things. The FDP will have to make some major moves here to really stay true to their voters. I personally would like to see the billions of paper forms disappear both in my personal and professional life, because German bureaucracy is just unbearable.
• Blocking Tax Increases: here, an absolute FDP win. They have blocked any increases in income, corporate, or consumption taxes, and most importantly blocked the SPD and Greens from getting a wealth tax through.
• Education: this seems to be the evergreen issue for liberal parties across Europe, but I don't remember any concrete promises other than 1% of VAT goes to education. The BaFÖG reform was successful with an FDP mark, but they don't really seem to be "owning" this. Other than that I don't really know of any concrete promises or ideas from the Traffic Light coalition on this topic, so I have no idea how to judge this

I think the FDP's big issue is that their promises in the 2021 campaign were more "we will stop this and that" rather than "we will deliver a positive action". While of course they promised many things, the biggest narratives around them were 1.) acting as a block on an SPD-Green government agenda, particularly on fiscal issues, and 2.) loosening COVID restrictions. From the beginning, a campaign of blocking things is something that doesn't really endear people to you. It's always very risky to rely on saying you stopped things that didn't happen from happening. And while they won on the COVID issue, the pandemic was a one-time issue, so this doesn't really have staying power.

There have also been unforced errors, like Lindner's gratismentalität comment and the Porsche thing, which just confirms the stereotype of the party being an elitist and clientelistic party. Or the debacle with the gas surcharge just made everyone look bad: the FDP originally wanted to pass costs onto consumers, which made people angry, and I suppose you could call this a kind of tax increase on the consumer? Then they were forced to reverse course and nationalize the two gas companies, which goes against the FDP's liberal ideology and also embarrassed all three parties because the coalition is chaotic and constantly changing direction during a time of crisis.

Then again, I'm just an SPDer, so maybe I'm just full of it or missing some things that the few FDP/CDU posters we have could tell us about.

Or maybe the FDP is caught between a rock and a hard place anyways and there is no way out for the moment.

I think this is more or less it.

Unlike the January Agreement in Sweden in 2019, the Traffic Light coalition agreement doesn't actually force the Social Democrats and Greens to implement tough-to-swallow centre-right policies. I myself was quite surprised when I read the coalition agreement and thought to myself, "This is literally just the SPD-Green platform, with some points taken out". Maybe that is the problem all along: the FDP just acts as a brake without really driving through its own policies outside a handful of minor points here and there. Maybe they should have played hard ball during the negotiations to get real and meaningful concessions.

They could start playing brinkmanship with the SPD-Greens on issues like energy policy (keeping open the three remaining nuclear plants seems like both good politics and good policy), demand new focus on their issues of bureaucracy, regulations, the adjustment of income tax tables, small business issues, the property tax filing extension, digitalization, the Startup Strategy that Lindner proposed, home-office regulations, etc. and demand more attention to these. It will be hard given the crisis will continue into 2023 and likely 2024, but perhaps they can convince the SPD and Greens to give them some wins.

Pulling out and maybe forcing a new election isn't really an option. If you pull out of a government coalition less than one year in because of bad poll numbers, especially in times of a major crisis, what kind of signal does that send about your reliability as a partner (even to the CDU) and as a responsible party to the country?

Finally, just looking at how German politics has evolved since 2008-2009, it feels like there just isn't much of an appetite for economic liberalism in Germany anymore, unlike the 1990s and 2000s. Who really thinks that austerity is justified now? Probably the FDP has to really drive home their plans for modernization, digitalization, and liberal policies regarding civil liberties to salvage what they can.