US elections that "broke" the other side?
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  US elections that "broke" the other side?
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Author Topic: US elections that "broke" the other side?  (Read 723 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: December 08, 2022, 06:07:49 PM »

What notable elections do you think "broke" the other side, essentially triggering them?
Presidential
For Republicans: 1948, 1960, 1992, 2008, 2020
For Democrats: 1968, 1980, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2016

Congressional Elections
For Republicans: 1998, 2006, 2018, 2022
For Democrats: 1994, 2002, 2010

Other elections:
For Democrats: NJ Midterms 1991, NYC Mayor 1993, TX GOV 1994, NY GOV 1994, CA GOV recall 2003

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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2022, 06:47:12 PM »

How can 1932 not be on here given it utterly destroyed decades of republican dominance, led to decades of democratic dominance and the Republican Party pretty much was effectively  sent into nonexistentance for the next 6 years .
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John Dule
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« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2022, 06:53:28 PM »

How did the 2003 recall "break the other side" when it was practically the sunset of Republican statewide victories in California?
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2022, 06:59:17 PM »

1860, 1932, 1972, every election from 1984 on
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2022, 07:03:24 PM »

How did the 2003 recall "break the other side" when it was practically the sunset of Republican statewide victories in California?

Dems felt that Prop 187 would end the CAGOP for good, the 1998 and 2002 wins got to Dems head. No one, NO one thought that Arnold would be governor.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2022, 07:15:34 PM »

Only doing 21st century elections

Broke Republicans: 2008, 2012, 2020, 2022
Broke Democrats: 2000, 2010, 2016
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2022, 07:49:00 PM »

The ones they lost.
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HisGrace
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« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2022, 12:07:17 AM »

2012 made the Republicans crazy and the aftermath convinced me that the personal opposition to Obama was in fact motivated by race and not just his being the most liberal president up to that point.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2022, 03:32:26 AM »

The trio of 1932, 1934, and 1936 must have been pretty bad for Rs. Especially because of that Readers' Digest poll...
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: December 09, 2022, 10:11:58 AM »

How can 1932 not be on here given it utterly destroyed decades of republican dominance, led to decades of democratic dominance and the Republican Party pretty much was effectively  sent into nonexistentance for the next 6 years .

I think bronz was just doing post-WWII election. But I completely agree with you on 1932.
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Vosem
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« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2022, 12:39:05 PM »

2012 would be the big one for the modern GOP; it forced a reckoning that many socially-conservative stances that would've been winners in the recent past were unpopular, and because Romney ran what was (considered by most in the party to be) such a picture-perfect campaign, there was a scramble to look for alternatives. 2012 also fed into Democratic narratives about the reasons they had an advantage in society (since it substantially was won on the grounds of high turnout from very blue minorities and youth), so that also caused panic. (I think in the long run 2012 also kind of broke Democrats a little, actually, because they have attempted to analyze every result since 2012 as if it were 2012 again, and it's been very tough for them to admit that "high turnout among minorities and youth" is just not a sustainable winning strategy).

2016 also did, but I think less so than 2012. In 2016, the Republicans ran what was (considered by most in the Democratic Party to be) a comically bad campaign, making every mistake in the book; they still won, but in a flukish way as a result of a high third-party vote which was unrepeatable. There was then a conceit within the Republican Party that this sort of campaign would be usually successful, which was wrong and has bitten the party in the ass on some occasions. Democrats reacted nihilistically and decided that "nothing matters", and moved left on fiscal/economic issues, resulting in some blunted victories.

(The point is: after 2012, Democrats decided that "we can just do this every time", and so fell into a series of traps. After 2016, Republicans decided that "we can just do this every time", and so fell into a series of traps. The Republican version of this is mostly worse, in that 2016 wasn't even a real popular-sentiment victory, but at the same time many candidates feel like they don't have the personality to try to ape Trump '16, while every Democrat tries to ape Obama '12 and this is often not a thing that works.)
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TheTide
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« Reply #11 on: December 09, 2022, 12:47:36 PM »

1946 midterms.
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dw93
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« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2022, 01:59:32 PM »

In the Last 50 years (Including Midterms):

Broke Democrats: 1980, 1984, 1994, 2000, 2004, 2016
Broke Republicans: 1992, 2008, 2012, 2020, 2022
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2022, 01:25:47 AM »

2012 would be the big one for the modern GOP; it forced a reckoning that many socially-conservative stances that would've been winners in the recent past were unpopular, and because Romney ran what was (considered by most in the party to be) such a picture-perfect campaign, there was a scramble to look for alternatives. 2012 also fed into Democratic narratives about the reasons they had an advantage in society (since it substantially was won on the grounds of high turnout from very blue minorities and youth), so that also caused panic. (I think in the long run 2012 also kind of broke Democrats a little, actually, because they have attempted to analyze every result since 2012 as if it were 2012 again, and it's been very tough for them to admit that "high turnout among minorities and youth" is just not a sustainable winning strategy).

2016 also did, but I think less so than 2012. In 2016, the Republicans ran what was (considered by most in the Democratic Party to be) a comically bad campaign, making every mistake in the book; they still won, but in a flukish way as a result of a high third-party vote which was unrepeatable. There was then a conceit within the Republican Party that this sort of campaign would be usually successful, which was wrong and has bitten the party in the ass on some occasions. Democrats reacted nihilistically and decided that "nothing matters", and moved left on fiscal/economic issues, resulting in some blunted victories.

(The point is: after 2012, Democrats decided that "we can just do this every time", and so fell into a series of traps. After 2016, Republicans decided that "we can just do this every time", and so fell into a series of traps. The Republican version of this is mostly worse, in that 2016 wasn't even a real popular-sentiment victory, but at the same time many candidates feel like they don't have the personality to try to ape Trump '16, while every Democrat tries to ape Obama '12 and this is often not a thing that works.)

I'm not sure what the thread question really means, but IMO ironically enough 2020 "broke" Democrats more than 2016 did. Trump's election was easy to dismiss as a fluke: either Clinton wasn't left wing enough or leftist infighting cost Clinton the election, and voters took a gamble on Trump. But after 4 years of Trump governing like a clown, and polls showing Biden winning in a near blowout, that he came so close to reelection and Democrats came close to losing both houses of Congress deeply shocked progressives and made them fundamentally reassess the left's post-2012 electoral strategy.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2022, 08:28:37 AM »

1852?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2022, 06:09:30 PM »

What notable elections do you think "broke" the other side, essentially triggering them?
Presidential
For Republicans: 1948, 1960, 1992, 2008, 2020
For Democrats: 1968, 1980, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2016

Congressional Elections
For Republicans: 1998, 2006, 2018, 2022
For Democrats: 1994, 2002, 2010

Other elections:
For Democrats: NJ Midterms 1991, NYC Mayor 1993, TX GOV 1994, NY GOV 1994, CA GOV recall 2003



2018 is an interesting example because it also managed to break Democrats because of one particular swing state.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2022, 09:46:29 AM »

Every unexpected election loss is a painful and leads to some sort of weird behaviour, so I guess 2022.
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Nathan
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« Reply #17 on: December 14, 2022, 09:30:02 AM »

What notable elections do you think "broke" the other side, essentially triggering them?
Presidential
For Republicans: 1948, 1960, 1992, 2008, 2020
For Democrats: 1968, 1980, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2016

Congressional Elections
For Republicans: 1998, 2006, 2018, 2022
For Democrats: 1994, 2002, 2010

Other elections:
For Democrats: NJ Midterms 1991, NYC Mayor 1993, TX GOV 1994, NY GOV 1994, CA GOV recall 2003



2018 is an interesting example because it also managed to break Democrats because of one particular swing state.

By which you mean that we're going to be bedeviled by HERE'S HOW BERNIE CAN STILL WIN MIAMI-DADE CAN STILL SWING BACK takes for potentially decades? Yeah.
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