Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Gass3268]

Early vote suggests this could be much closer than expected, which would fit into the post election day trend of Democratic over performance. Estes will obviously win, but the swing from election day 2016 will be noticeable.

[Gass3268]

Cook shifted this from Safe R to Likely R yesterday.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

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Something's up here. This might end up being embarrassingly close for Republicans.

[Gass3268]

The Pub will win by 10 points. The dem nominee should then run for some statewide offices in KS, he would have a non negligible chance to win.

I'm hoping it's somewhere closer to Brownback's 6.6% win 2014. A margin around there would:

1. Scare Republicans in competitive districts away from Trump's agenda. Repealing Obamacare would be even deader than it is now and it would make tax reform even more difficult.
2. Harm Republican recruitment efforts, while boosting Democratic recruitment.
3. Convince some Republicans that it would be better to retire than face a competitive reelection in 2018. Open seats are always easier to pick up.

[Gass3268]

Crystal Ball moved this to Likely R

[Gass3268]

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Source

Yeah, I don't believe that.

[Gass3268]

IMO it's pretty obvious that this is the same, old trick.

I guess there's the possibility Republicans are trying to play it up so a single-digit win for Estes doesn't look bad, but never doubt the incompetency of Kansas Republicans.

It's to scare folks into voting.

[Gass3268]

Just saw a tweet that that the early vote was 48-40 Republican.

[Gass3268]

I say:
Estes - 53%
Thompson - 43%
Rockhold - 4%

As a Wichitan, I know by any mean this is a hell of an uphill battle. Here's what Thompson has going for him:
-Insane fundraising numbers (for the 4th district)
-Strong grassroots support in Wichita's young professional community (we'll see if there are enough "new Wichitans" to propel him to victory)
-He's strongly pro-gun
-The field operation is incredibly strong, and there are thousands of volunteers on the ground and on the phones
-Estes hasn't really been campaigning much; his office has sat around empty for a while just before the election
-Estes somehow has less energy than Jeb Bush or Ben Carson, the guy is sooooo boring
-Paul Davis only lost the district by a few points, and Estes is strongly linked to unpopular Brownback

Here's what stands in his way though:
-This district bleeds red through and through-most Dems lose by 30
-Ted Cruz remains very popular with the large Evangelical population
-Abortion ads will hit Thompson hard, even though they're false; Abortion is even more of a fault line in Wichita than most places thanks to the Summer of Mercy and then years later, Dr. Tiller's killing
-Estes was the former county treasurer and current state treasurer, so people know him
-Will Black and Latino Democrats in Wichita turn out? There was a big turnout dropoff in 2014 and even from the presidential race to the congressional race in 2016

Isn't Wichita the biggest city in Kansas?  I know it's still a medium sized city, but it's a bit odd when the biggest city in a state is heavily Republican.

I think the city of Wichita itself is more of a toss-up city, with the area outside the city which makes up about 25% of the counties population pushes Sedgwick County to be a very reliable Republican County.

[Gass3268]

Wow, if this is the early vote it means that huge % of registered Republicans voted for Thompson.

[Gass3268]

I don't trust DDHQ as far as I can throw them after their incorrect calls in the D Michigan/Missouri Primaries. I'll stick to AP (by county), which does not show anything yet.

It's not just DDHQ, numbers match the Sedgwick County site:

http://www.sedgwickcounty.org/elections/election_results/SpecGen17/index.html

Mother of God...

[Gass3268]

Okay, but it's probably just a lucky early precinct.

This is the early vote, it is from the entirety of Sedgwick County.

[Gass3268]

Kyle Kondik‏ @kkondik  3m3 minutes ago
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 Well at the very least this is a considerable moral victory for Dems - and perhaps an actual victory.

[Gass3268]

I bet the DCCC regrets not investing heavily in this race.

They staying out helped the expectations game.

[Gass3268]

Decision Desk HQ‏ @DecisionDeskHQ
Thompson won early votes in Harvey 1043 to 703

Very nice!

[Gass3268]

Thompson won Elk County

[Gass3268]

Elk was wrong, lol

[Gass3268]

What counts as a moral win here if you're a Democrat? Estes +7? Estes +4?

Single digits

[Gass3268]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

[Gass3268]

Ugh, why is the New York Times using different shades of the blue for the Democrats.

[Gass3268]

They switched Kennedy to green.

[Gass3268]

Wow, Jones up huge in Jefferson.

[Gass3268]

I know it's early, but if Jones's numbers in Jefferson hold, I don't see how Kennedy can keep him under 50%, unless he absolutely destroys him in the Black Belt.

Jones is getting a good margin out Montgomery County.

[Gass3268]

Dave Wasserman called it for Moore.