Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Ebsy]

I think the KS-04 result is going to be very interesting.

[Ebsy]

I guess I should clarify: of course I don't think Democrats are going to win KS-04 in a special election. Still, Kansas swung against Trump, and it is where I would expect anti-Trump backlash to start showing itself. The KS-04 results could be instructive for how the competitive races in KS-02 and KS-03 will go in 2018.

[Ebsy]

Alexis Levinson‏:
Some big last minute TV spending from Rs in the #ks04 special (Pompeo's seat):

RNC - $92,000
NRCC - $67,111

Issue for Rs in the Kansas special isn't on the level of Georgia — but a lot of Rs watching race expect a much closer race than you'd assume

It's a narrative issue for GOP. #ks04 elex is Tuesday 4/11. A close race in a super R state is a bad narrative for Rs one wk before #GA06.

Just bc it's KS, doesn't mean it's exempt from nat'l trends: liberals are super fired up and Rs know they have to deal with that #ks04

And maybe more importantly, KS Gov. Brownback remains super unpopular. And that's a weight on any R running there. #ks04

[Ebsy]

Cook just moved KS-04 from Safe R to Likely R.

[Ebsy]

What would a "good margin" for a democrat be in this district? Anything under 20?

Paul Davis only lose the district by 6.6% in 2014 so something single digits.

[Ebsy]

Dave Weigel‏
NEWS: Dem Jim Thompson’s campaign in #KS04 says the NRCC ad, which hits him on abortion, is getting pulled for including false info.

Sad!

[Ebsy]

[Ebsy]

Speaking of SC-05 (Mulvaney's seat), has anyone heard anything about Democratis fielding a credible candidate there? The district has a fairly high floor for Democratic performance (even if Clinton did poorly there).

[Ebsy]

For the record, the worst performance I can find for Republicans since they took the seat in 1994 was in 2000, when Todd Tiahrt won by *only* 12 points.

That's true if you only look at Congressional results.

[Ebsy]

What I meant was that Sebelius won the district's current boundaries in 2006 and likely did in 2002 as well.

[Ebsy]

@alexis_levinson
Ron Estes got some last minute $ from House Rs per FEC filing - Reps. Lynn Jenkins, Tom Emmer, Jason Smith, David Rouzer donated #ks04

@jmartNYT
No TV, but i'm told @CLFSuperPAC is spending $50K on live GOTV phone calls to all past R primary voters in lead up to #KS04

Nothing to see here!

[Ebsy]

What time do the polls close today?

Early voting ended at noon.

[Ebsy]

Also, does anyone have any idea where one can find the final early vote statistics for KS-04? Tom Bonier of TargetSmart posted some a few days back but I haven't seen any numbers since then.

[Ebsy]

@jonshorman
>> TRUMP has recorded call for Estes, KS Republican national committeeman Mark Kahrs tells me #ksleg #KS04

Bringing out the big guns.

[Ebsy]

Just saw a tweet that that the early vote was 48-40 Republican.

Was that the Ted Bonier tweetstorm from earlier this week?

[Ebsy]

IMO it's pretty obvious that this is the same, old trick.

I guess there's the possibility Republicans are trying to play it up so a single-digit win for Estes doesn't look bad, but never doubt the incompetency of Kansas Republicans.

It's to scare folks into voting.

Do a lot of people in Witchita read the Kansas City Star? Probably not.

[Ebsy]

I imagine AP runners will also be there for the results. Though I haven't seen an actual AP results page, kansas.com (The Wichita Eagle) will more than likely have a feed of these results.

[Ebsy]

Well, KS-3 should be fun in 2018.

And KS-02

[Ebsy]

We're apparently going to get a special election in Chaffetz' seat.

[Ebsy]

Looks like the polling showing this as a 1 point race was quite accurate.

[Ebsy]

It's somewhat strange how little attention has been given to SC-5. Yes, it's not likely to be nearly as competitive as GA-6, but it's still on the same day.

Probably why it hasn't gotten the same attention, no?

I don't expect it to get the same attention, but at least some. KS-4 was somewhat hyped before its election day, while I don't think I've seen anything about SC-5.

DCCC just commissioned polling of it. If it looks competitive, they will act.

[Ebsy]

Nancy Pelosi questions but no Paul Ryan? Looks like they might have withheld whatever numbers they had on him. I'm guessing they weren't good.

[Ebsy]

What's colbert county doing on the dem side?

Someone had a lot of cousins fill out absentee ballots.

[Ebsy]

There was some heavy rain in southern Alabama during the day, which might depress turnout there relative to the rest of the state.  Who would this help/hurt?

Help Brooks and hurt Strange.

[Ebsy]

What's colbert county doing on the dem side?

That candidate is a minister in Florence.

Florence is the county seat of Lauderdale County immediately to the north of Colbert County.